Hitesh portfolio

(Hitesh Patel) #2935


Interesting queries.

Support zones are usually found by

Price getting supported at a particular price zone.
Retracement levels
Moving avgs
Previous tops/bottoms
trendline supports

Ideally when a few of the above ranges coincide at a particular support zone it assumes a lot of significance. .eg 200 day moving avg coinciding with 50 or 61.8% retracement level and we see stock holding up there and then bouncing with volumes.

Coming pointwise to your queries

  1. In the absence of sufficient data, its very difficult to make out support levels. One way could be to find out retracement levels from bottom or top and find out the support zones at retracement levels.

  2. If a stock remains between 100-115 for 6 months, support is nearer to 100 and resistance nearer to 115.

  3. A breakdown/breakout from a range lasting only a day or two could be ignored as a whipsaw, provided previous range has been established for a lot of days.

  4. Support zones are areas where stock price gets support on declines. In between there would be bounces and stock comes back to test the support zones and if support holds we can conclude that its a strong support. While looking at supports one cannot stick to only one level e.g 135 in case of equitas. It would have to be say 133-135 or so. Regarding time frame, there is no precise rule. The level from where a good bounce with volumes occurs is a good support.

  5. Regarding my buying I usually look at breakouts and then some pullback post that to take a position. This is especially for technofunda bets. For bets where I like the fundamentals and management of the company (e.g MAS) I dont attach too much importance to support etc. If there is a clear picture its well and good otherwise I buy without looking at technicals too much.

  6. Regarding absence of supports this happens if a stock corrects after it has had a parabolic rise. Usually seen at the fag end of a bull run. This happens because buying frenzy/panic had led to the parabolic rise and once the stock starts going down, everyone wants to bail out at the same time and there is a huge selling pressure. Or else it happens in case of negative news/frauds etc. In case of KNR it went up from 200 to 350 levels in around 2 months which is almost 75% gains. So once correction was to set in it can assume such steep cuts. Now its almost at the level from where the whole parabolic rise started. Specifically in case of KNR it would be advisable to wait and see how the stock establishes a range and consolidates. In the near future as there dont seem to be no triggers its better to be patient. Once the stock price shows some strength and comes out of a consolidation zone its ripe for the picking.

(MittalSumit85) #2936

Dear Hitesh Sir,

I am a new member on this forum and this is my first post.

First of all I would like to thank you for your expert and generous advices :slight_smile: Some time back I’ve bought shares of Max India Lts hoping for a growth trajectory in future but it looks like a continuous downspiral for the company for a long time. What is your take on this company, do you expect this company to see a positive turn around in next 1-2 years. Please advice.

(Investor_No_1) #2937

Hiteshji, can you pls share link for this thread. I think the recent correction in quality midcaps has made me study such aspects! Thanks

(Hitesh Patel) #2938


Business Quality: Refining our thinking on "Great Businesses"

(Sandokan) #2939


Like you, I am also a new member. In my understanding, it would not be fair to seek stock specific advice from any member without doing one’s own diligence. To share my own experience, I am presently studying the basics of investing, and once I can read the annual reports, P/L & Balance Sheet statements with some confidence, I would try my on hand at trying to analyse a particular stock, and then seek advice from the senior boarders here. I do hope that you benefit from the shared learning here. All the best.

In case my interpretation is wrong, seniors may wish to correct me. Thanks


(Milind) #2940

Thanks a lot Hitesh for your detailed reply.

Just one basic question, I might be missing something on this

If i see it says TTQ is 5817 and in chart if i try to see it may way more than 20K kind off if i start adding all the charts values in different price.

just thinking… how to find out Total trading quantity? till now i was reading TTQ but always thought it would be matching with chart only.

Sorry to bother you for very basic question.


(vivekvikramsingh) #2942

Love this line :slight_smile:


Dear Hitesh,
Your posts are gems for novice investors. My Q is do you follow a DCF model as well for stock valuation? And what are the kind of risk percentages do you use? I see many people using the range 12-18% for Indian cos. I do understand that it will be a function of the co size, financial leverage, management quality, cyclicality ,etc. Would be great to hear from a practitioner.


(Hitesh Patel) #2944


I dont use DCF model. I mainly look at the bigger picture and investment triggers besides checking most of the boxes in my standard checklist. I dont have a well defined checklist as most investors do but have some basic parameters I look at before going deeper into any company’s analysis.

(sarthak kumar) #2945

Dear Hitesh Bhai,

Does the launch of Pharma funds mean there will be increasing demand esp for big pharma cos like Sun and Cipla. Not looking for buy sell recommendations. Trying to understand how the launch of new funds works in terms of demand for particular stocks. I mean how does a new fund build up its portfolio.


(Hitesh Patel) #2947

@sarthakkumar19_, Launch of pharma funds will create some demand for pharma stocks esp the larger cap companies like sun, lupin, dr reddys etc. But at the end of the day the returns are determined by earnings and thats where I think one needs to be choosy in pharma space.

(Investor2025) #2948

Hii hiteshbhai

Excellent research and very mature advices !
Please share your views on repro india …


(sumit680) #2949

Hello Hitesh Ji…I have studying about Eris Lifesciences and their different buisness model…being a doctor and from the Promoter’s place, i request your views on the following points -

  1. The business model focuses upon the patients in tier I and II cities by pushing their products via Key Opinion Leaders (specialists and super specialists)…they expect to gain major growth from chronic segment…the proposition sounds logical in theory and they have achieved outstanding growth in past too…
    But will marketing products by targeting doctors as the main strategy sustain in the long term…can it be considered as a moat in their business model…in their DRHP, they have specifically mentioned the increase in no. of doctors recommending their products
    is it a normal practice followed by other pharma companies or a viable business model…

  2. Do you have any input on the reputation of the promoter Mr Amit Bakshi…i couldnt find any red flag except that before launching IPO, they declared hefty dividends and promoters enjoyed grand perks…but they have been honest in giving the details of the remuneration…

  3. How to gauze the correct valuation for such companies with high PAT margins and expected CAGR of 20+ in next 2-3 years…what should be the range of PE multiple for such a pharma company…


(Hitesh Patel) #2950

@sumit680, I dont track Eris too closely to offer any opinion.

(Ashish Jain) #2951

Dear Hitesh Bhai,

Any update on Magma fincorp. Chart is looking quite horrible.

(Hitesh Patel) #2952


Magma has corrected a lot. Almost a breakdown. Previous top of 2015 was in the region of 142 and that area needs to be watched now.

Fundamentally would like to see how the company pans out over next few quarters.

Small-midcaps is in panic selling mode and a lot of stocks are getting butchered. Could be a chance to pick up good companies which are also beaten up along with the garbage group.

(RAYMOND) #2953

Dear Hiteshbhai ,Is there any hope for BHEL ,holding since long time.



Dear Hitesh @hitesh2710,

Can you share your inputs about investing in HDFC AMC IPO? It’s a good brand for sure but how does the AMC business as such looks in general given that stock markets are at all time high now…

(Rits) #2955

Thanks Hitesh Bhai, could you please few names apart from magma, where business outlook remains positive for long term and market is pricing them incorrectly after the recent corrections in mid/small caps… Regards

(Ashish Jain) #2956

Thanks Hiteshbhai. Your knowledge on technical as well as fundamental is terrific. Its quite inspiring for we budding investors.