I had a look at your excel sheet on JB chem. Thanks for that. I am not too much of a numbers guy and dont go into too much of excel forecasting.
I look more at the bigger picture and try to figure out triggers due to changes in the company.
These changes are often seen as softer signs where management personnel change , or a previously lethargic company suddenly goes for capex, or there is an effort at enhancing shareholder value by buybacks/dividends etc.
In case of JB chem, the older generation is now practically in retirement mode because of advanced age. Younger generation has come to the fore and first thing I find is some sort of aggression in terms of capex, followed by increasing MR strength aggressively and buyback etc.
I dont know when these efforts are going to bear fruit. It might take a few quarters or can happen earlier too. In that situation I have to define my holding period and my downside potential. I remain comfortable on both counts in case of JB Chem.
Regarding management honesty, I have tracked this company for years now and have seen them handling cash on the balance sheet without any signs of pilferage.
In the past too they had built a very successful Russian business which they eventually sold out to Johnson people and even then they rewarded shareholders promptly.
All in all I find the whole picture encouraging and hence the investment. I would give it some time to see how my thesis plays out and then take a call.