Hitesh portfolio

(Hitesh Patel) #2399


Ensuring topline growth is best left to management. I was referring to the tepid growth in topline PI has been showing since past few quarters. Great companies always find ways to grow and that would be the bet on PI.

(Anshan) #2400


how do you evaluate some recent Ipo??

(anurag88) #2401

Hi Hitesh,

With loan waiver from most of the states, is NBFC the most to to be impacted or enough of downfall has already been seen.

Invested in Ujjivan and your views will be helpful

(Hitesh Patel) #2402

@anshan, I only track PNBHF among the companies u enlisted. It remains one of the strongest growth stocks in housing space.

(Hitesh Patel) #2403


Ujjivan is at an interesting juncture in its growth phase. The initial euphoria and froth is now over and it has given way to pessimism and it seems the pendulum has swung in the opposite direction.

The question we need to ask ourselves is whether these are peak NPAs or can they increase. This quarter as the results show, company has shown net loss due to higher provisions and higher credit costs.

How they recover the bad loans and to what extent the write offs continue needs to be seen. The stock price has corrected from its high price of 547 posted in July 2016 to current levels of around 300. BV as on June 2017 was quoted at 140.

I think a lot of pain might be priced in but buying if at all can be done in lots so one can average cost if the stock keeps on correcting. I dont have any positions nor intending to buy but it is in my watchlist.

(Shyam) #2404

Hi Hitesh,

You said PNBHF is a strong HFC. How does it compare with the upcoming companies like HUDCO or for that matter established players like LIC HF and Can Fin Homes?


(jstocks) #2405


what are your views on electrosteel castings?

(Hitesh Patel) #2406

No idea about electrosteel castings and hence no views.

@west_sun, About comparision, you will have to put up figures of loan book growth, NII, ROA etc and then u can get a better idea about comparision.

(Sunil) #2407

Hello Hitshbhai,

Would like to understand from you does this chart qualify as flag patter?

(Hitesh Patel) #2408

@sunilsurana, this doesnt look like a flag. for a better understanding u can google flag pattern and see some classical patterns that come up.

(Dhinakaran AK) #2409

Yes, the flag should not test and go below the flag mast, I think.

([email protected]) #2410

Want to know more about Empire ind , Sir
Want to invest so analyzing
plz reply

(Sarabjeet Singh) #2411

Hi Hitesh Sir, got a query regarding FPO’s by PSU ( e.g. Indian Bank, NTPC). Since govt is offloading significant portion of its stake via public offer , is it good or bad for the stock price price in short to medium term ?

As per my understanding since big investors ( even retail as they get discount mostly) will anyway get a chance to acquire huge stake via open offer hence they wont purchase from open market and inturn share price remaining stagnant. Is my understanding correct or there is more to it ?

(Hitesh Patel) #2412

I dont know much about empire inds so no idea about it.

@zoro99, PSU banks remain an unloved sector mainly bcos of the problems of asset qualities. Govt offloading stakes via FPO (I dont know when this is going to happen) would be a temporary drag on stock prices but as I see it the stock prices have taken such a beating that downsides might not be meaningful. What I couldnt figure out is what could trigger any upsides in these counters. Each quarter the asset quality concerns keep resurfacing so I dont know when there could be light at the end of the tunnel.


Hi Hitesh

Please share your views on AU Finance.

(Hitesh Patel) #2414

I dont have any idea about au finance as not tracking it.

(btunuguntla) #2415

Sir, hearing a lot of positive news on graphite electrodes these days, and promoters of HEG buying huge quantities from open market. Do you think HEG has a long way to go in next 15-18 months from here?

(Changu Mangu) #2417

Dear Hitesh Sir. I am quite cautious and gone to much in cash. How are you playing your portfolio right now? Are you increasing cash allocation or remaining invested in good stories? Please feel free to expand the answer to help as much as possible. Your answers contain good gems to pick from.

(amitjain2711) #2418

Which do you have more allocation to? :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

(Hitesh Patel) #2419


I have remained almost 100% invested in stocks all through the past few months. I often feel tempted to get into cash off and on but till now have resisted the temptation to do so. Primary reason being that I find conflicting signals coming through while looking at the markets.

There are some segments of markets that seem frothy like the high quality basket consisting of stocks like dmart, bajaj finance, HFCs etc. Even some perennial laggards like GVK, HFCL etc are showing some signs of activity.

But on the other hand some companies keep undergoing corrections based on their results and newsflow. So its not as if markets are frothy and headed only in one direction. e.g PI Inds, Hawkins etc which is testing investors’ patience.

One factor which I find disturbing is complacency even in well informed investors. These investors tend nowadays to take extreme valuations also in their stride. There is this oft repeated logic of domestic deluge of money into markets which will keep supporting the markets during corrections. But the question whether bull markets drive liquidity or the liquidity driving bull markets is tricky and wont have an easy answer.

Globally the macro risk of Korean crisis remains but it has not really affected market sentiment to a large degree till date. Even if US were to attack Korea I think the affair would be short lived as Korea doesnt seem to enjoy too much support from any other global countries. But the thread of the crisis has been used very conveniently to explain the market gyrations when no other logical explanation is visible.

At a portfolio level I am seeing some moves in stocks where technical patterns were indicating upmoves. So the ideal thing remains to keep riding these upmoves till signs of exhaustion in the upmove are clearly visible. I would put up these patterns in the presentation I had done at Goa VP meet to take the presentation forward.

As one of our revered investor friends has coined , “There is no absolute truth.” Similarly investing is about maintaing balance between emotions and not getting carried away on either side. I remain a bull who is scared but not shit scared.

The ART of Valuation