Hitesh portfolio

(Hitesh Patel) #2398


I like and am invested in Manappuram finance since some time from levels of around 92.

My view is that gold loan is a business which can gain on the back of demonetisation.

As a business they lend to the lowest level of pyramid but still bcos of gold collaterals the risk of asset quality deteriorating remains low. If needed they can auction gold and recover dues.

What I liked about their business was their reduction in tenure of loans. This reduces asset quality risks quite well. They also are trying to reduce their dependence on gold loans by focussing on MFI, affordable housing and other streams of businesses. I think Manappuram and even Muthoot are very well placed to pounce on the affordable housing opportunity. With the kind of growth in the housing loan segment shown in past few quarters by both cos, I wouldnt be surprised if these would end up with a big portfolio of affordable housing loans.

There have been a lot of doubts expressed about the growth prospects of gold loan business. My view is that till now these two companies have weathered the competition very well and have managed to grow barring the couple of years when there were regulatory headwinds.

Valuationwise also bcos of concerns of NPA and tepid growth, these companies had not run up in line with other NBFCs. Maybe its time for gold (loan cos) to glitter. :grinning:

disc: invested in both manappuram and muthoot.

(Hitesh Patel) #2399


Ensuring topline growth is best left to management. I was referring to the tepid growth in topline PI has been showing since past few quarters. Great companies always find ways to grow and that would be the bet on PI.

(Anshan) #2400


how do you evaluate some recent Ipo??

(anurag88) #2401

Hi Hitesh,

With loan waiver from most of the states, is NBFC the most to to be impacted or enough of downfall has already been seen.

Invested in Ujjivan and your views will be helpful

(Hitesh Patel) #2402

@anshan, I only track PNBHF among the companies u enlisted. It remains one of the strongest growth stocks in housing space.

(Hitesh Patel) #2403


Ujjivan is at an interesting juncture in its growth phase. The initial euphoria and froth is now over and it has given way to pessimism and it seems the pendulum has swung in the opposite direction.

The question we need to ask ourselves is whether these are peak NPAs or can they increase. This quarter as the results show, company has shown net loss due to higher provisions and higher credit costs.

How they recover the bad loans and to what extent the write offs continue needs to be seen. The stock price has corrected from its high price of 547 posted in July 2016 to current levels of around 300. BV as on June 2017 was quoted at 140.

I think a lot of pain might be priced in but buying if at all can be done in lots so one can average cost if the stock keeps on correcting. I dont have any positions nor intending to buy but it is in my watchlist.

(Shyam) #2404

Hi Hitesh,

You said PNBHF is a strong HFC. How does it compare with the upcoming companies like HUDCO or for that matter established players like LIC HF and Can Fin Homes?


(jstocks) #2405


what are your views on electrosteel castings?

(Hitesh Patel) #2406

No idea about electrosteel castings and hence no views.

@west_sun, About comparision, you will have to put up figures of loan book growth, NII, ROA etc and then u can get a better idea about comparision.

(Sunil) #2407

Hello Hitshbhai,

Would like to understand from you does this chart qualify as flag patter?

(Hitesh Patel) #2408

@sunilsurana, this doesnt look like a flag. for a better understanding u can google flag pattern and see some classical patterns that come up.

(Dhinakaran AK) #2409

Yes, the flag should not test and go below the flag mast, I think.

([email protected]) #2410

Want to know more about Empire ind , Sir
Want to invest so analyzing
plz reply

(Sarabjeet Singh) #2411

Hi Hitesh Sir, got a query regarding FPO’s by PSU ( e.g. Indian Bank, NTPC). Since govt is offloading significant portion of its stake via public offer , is it good or bad for the stock price price in short to medium term ?

As per my understanding since big investors ( even retail as they get discount mostly) will anyway get a chance to acquire huge stake via open offer hence they wont purchase from open market and inturn share price remaining stagnant. Is my understanding correct or there is more to it ?

(Hitesh Patel) #2412

I dont know much about empire inds so no idea about it.

@zoro99, PSU banks remain an unloved sector mainly bcos of the problems of asset qualities. Govt offloading stakes via FPO (I dont know when this is going to happen) would be a temporary drag on stock prices but as I see it the stock prices have taken such a beating that downsides might not be meaningful. What I couldnt figure out is what could trigger any upsides in these counters. Each quarter the asset quality concerns keep resurfacing so I dont know when there could be light at the end of the tunnel.


Hi Hitesh

Please share your views on AU Finance.

(Hitesh Patel) #2414

I dont have any idea about au finance as not tracking it.

(btunuguntla) #2415

Sir, hearing a lot of positive news on graphite electrodes these days, and promoters of HEG buying huge quantities from open market. Do you think HEG has a long way to go in next 15-18 months from here?

(Changu Mangu) #2417

Dear Hitesh Sir. I am quite cautious and gone to much in cash. How are you playing your portfolio right now? Are you increasing cash allocation or remaining invested in good stories? Please feel free to expand the answer to help as much as possible. Your answers contain good gems to pick from.

(amitjain2711) #2418

Which do you have more allocation to? :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye: