Here is a text from 2007 AR
The poultry industry has now stabilised, which was earlier under stress due to the Bird Flu outbreak in February 2006. The industry growth rate is back in double digits, this time with a higher focus on hygiene and disease preventive measures. The use of poultry vaccines has gained lot of importance as a tool to prevent diseases.
Even if you look at results in 2007, the revenues were flattish. Eventually these things are a temporary blip and the industry would rebound very fast after the disease is controlled. In fact, Poultries had a tough time in 2016 also. If you read AR and concall transcripts, management said that the year was the toughest in last 10-15 years and costs of operation for poultries were 20% below selling price. But the industry has recovered now.
Nepal was selected because of Nigerian strain cant be manufactured in India. Geographical proximity to India and 10 year tax break may have played a role. Africa could have been an option but it may not be easy to go to a country that you are not so familiar with. That said, Hester is planning a green field plant in Africa, but it will come only they have clear visibility of utilization at Nepal.
Nepal doesnt have a large cattle population. So PPR spreading would not be a big risk. If it spreads, Hester opportunity size will only increase.
PPR vaccines are also needed in countries other than Africa. South east asia, middle east etc. The opportunity of PPR is enormous and Hester with approvals in place shouldnt have problems getting the tenders. They probably have one of the lowest cost structures, and also good distribution network. So I dont see any reasons why they wouldnt grab some portion of the pie.
They are also working with non tender business, although volumes will be small. This has been mentioned in concalls.
@ayushmit absolutely…the company is making the right moves. This is a case where we shouldnt rush as there could be disappointments (compared to commentary) on the way, providing better opportunities to buy.