All,
Any opinion or comment on TTK Prestige results and how it might play out for Hawkins?
Does not seem to be decent after reading the below (emphasis on lack of demand due to various reasons stands out) :
http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/TTK_Prestige_Ltd3_170114.pdf
Regards–Surender
hawkins comes up with lacklustre results.
sales up from 105 in q3 fy 13 to 111 crores in q3 fy 14.
net profit down from 7 cr in q3 fy 13 to 6.52 cr in q3 fy 14.
9M eps at 47.58 per share.
TTK results which were howler had prepared the markets for similar kind of results from hawkins too.
hawkins stock down around 5% at 2070
My humble suggestion to all those holding Hawkins is to stop fooling yourself and stop getting fooled by people advocating a buy on this company. Say- Enough is Enough and relieve yourself of this overpriced burden. I just did that.
if every one is on one side of the market v will have no markets
Hawkins ki siti kab bajegi bhai
When a lot of people goes on one side, an overpriced situation like Hawkins happen. The result of this one side see saw is for all to see.
HITESHJI,
With this lackluster performance from hawkins.
what is ur take on it now?
(i have invested in it recently.)
if every one is on one side of the market v will have no markets
for every buyer there is a corresponding seller,its the sentiment that moves the price
Sentiments move the price only for sometime. Eventually, its the fundamentals that take over. Its time for fundamentals (which are just average here) to take over in Hawkins.
When a lot of people goes on one side, an overpriced situation like Hawkins happen. The result of this one side see saw is for all to see.
rakesh,
Hawkins is a stock to invest in after a bad quarterly result… Most of the optimism is out of it then and you get a good entry price…
Since the consumer demand is down the results have been mediocre…
Usually most of damage is done within 2-3 days of poor news unless markets themselves are correcting severely.
I think levels below 2000 should be attractive for those still believing in the story.
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Though I have not lost money on Hawkins but if I remember correctly the stock has given negative returns in last 1 year. After resolution of factory issues and since the stock is quoting at high pe, one expects the earnings to increase by at least 20 % which is not happening. The consumption in General has gone down most likely due to high inflation and low growth. Wonder how long this is going to last.
Disc : Hawkins is my biggest holding.
The results are disappointing for sure but if one looks at TTK results there is a marked slowdown in cooking and cookware segments. A person taking buy/sell decision on the basis of few quarters should definitely exit Hawkins as they may continue this for some more time. In my view it’s highly likely to get 50-60% return from this level in next 15 months.Hawkins has not provided big return since last 2 years but in last 5 years it has moved more than 10 times.
PS: I have been buying since the level of 450 and have bought till 2200. I will be hanging on till next one year and then take a call.
Hawkins had been one of the good consumer focused companies led by an honest management with superior asset light model with clean balance sheet and operating in a dupoly market with very low obsolescence risk. All these factors make it a long term compounding pick.
However, the moat has been proved to be weaker over the past years with many players jumping on the bandwagon to sell pressure cookers and cookwares. In absence of brand awareness, it is very difficult to survive for a company in a commodity market and in spite of higher discounts and tapping multiple sales channels company is finding it difficult to sell it’s products.
TTK prestige numbers were meant to be weaker because of the higher base last year, but for Hawkins to post tepid numbers on a weaker Q2FY13 despite price rise does not augurs well.
We can always come up with 100 pointers to support the slow growth or lack of it. But the point to consider is there are enough good companies which are growing robustly even in this environment. As investors it is critical for us to allocate capital to the best possible opportunities with best possible returns.
The opportunity cost incurred here is huge and increasing. Hence it is better to switch to other opportunities better suited for the current environment and return to Hawkins when the growth triggers return and company show sustained growth for few quarters at least.
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HITESHJI,
With this lackluster performance from hawkins.
what is ur take on it now?
(i have invested in it recently.)
rakesh,
Hawkins
** price…Since **
** mediocre…Usually **
** severely.I **
story.
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hiteshji
thank u for ur view…
i think max eps would be around 70.
so cant expect too much from hawkins in near term, though long term remains convincing… in short term it will not so be profitable.
rakesh.
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To Each, His Own: I think Opportunity cost is not relevant for a salaried guy who can only invest couple of thousands each month and is looking to build a portfolio for long term. Such bad quarters rather provide an opportunity if one believes in the company.
Disc: Have been adding to Titan after everybody turned negative. Will add to Hawkins if it really falls.
Vaibhav,
Opportunity cost is not regular investment… its like you are stuck in this stock hoping to recover while other stocks are delivering. So you are loosing on the opportunity by betting on the wrong stock. In concentrated folio it sucks more because for e.g. your 30% of the portfolio is not performing. E.g Titan was languishing there only from last one -two year… While page is giving good returns… or if somebody has invested the Hawkins amount in page then he would have got handsome return… but its all a case of if’s and buts’.
Thanks.
Thanks for the explanation Pankaj! (seeking guidance of all Seniors)
Here is my thought process:
1). I am looking to build my portfolio over long term(3-4 years); for long term(>10 years).
2). I buy companies which I can follow, have good products/brand/goodwill, ethical management andabove all can survive with growth for the long term.
3). In such long period, any/all companies can face few bad quarters/years. If I sell for opportunity cost,how do i build my portfolio? Do I sell my HDFCBank seeing it gone nowhere while others have given 3X in last year.
4). If my goal is to get 20% return, my concern should be to study if my selected companies can deliver that over long termand not to keep churning my portfolio seeing another company growing at 40% for some time.
5). I am invested in Valuepickr stocks too and seen my 1 months investment give 2X in 4 months but that leaves me in adilemma and further buying is tough.
Am I being suicidal?
I am not senior :)… only thing is that I knew what opportunity cost is because I lost many opportunities 
Hawkins might be different case but I think for Titan you might be on wrong track. You don’t judge by Q to Q but you should know that it is on right track. How I don’t know… that why keep reading on this forum.
Hawkins is hiring for Mumbai location , could not find the number of open position but it is hiring in almost all the department. Good positive sign from management I believe.
Not sure why Hawkins is just sitting idle. They are not spending on ads. Don’t remember seeing any Hawkins ad no Television for years now. Secondly, there is hardly any online presence on retailers or advertisements. In this day & age when customer loyalty is fickle you need to keep reminding them of your brand.
