Hari’s portfolio. Needs a helping hand


(hari_) #22

Agree that I should trim my holdings to <30 stocks. As a first step, I am now looking at 10yr cagr (stock price) of my holdings. Next,I will look to weed out the <15% stocks one by one at less than 5% loss from my buying price.


(1.5cr) #23

Dont do that. Invest always forward looking. Just because something did notcompound at 15% for last 10 years does not mean it wont compound at 15% or higher for the next 10.
Ideall you need to sit down and ask yourself if you had to pick 10 stocks from your ideas, what would they be and why? This will ensure that max weight goes into your high conviction ideas. 60-70% of weight should go into them. the other 30-40% can be your next best 15 ideas.


(hari_) #24

I am bullish on Tinplate, gail, thangamayil jewellery(but they don’t have a great name because they have been accused of cheating on gold earlier. They operate mainly from madurai. Gold ornaments after washing changed colour it seems).


(hari_) #25

Am also pretty bullish on tata motors,cyient and pc jewellers


(1.5cr) #26

Then allocate more capital to them. You dont need to justify your ideas to other people haha! Top 10-12 ideas and then next 15. Since you like a diversified approach! If you have 2% in your best idea and it goes up 5x it really does not make that much of a difference to your portfolio.


(Sandokan) #27

:ok_hand: While agreeing with this sentiment, I would also reiterate that one should at least be able to justify buy/sell decisions to yourself!! :grinning:


(hari_) #28

Most of my buys are turnaround bets. I tried to buy at 52wk low. On bounce back hopes


(1.5cr) #29

From my limited knowledge, let me tell what I understand about investing in turnarounds.

  • It is very difficult to time turnarounds let alone cyclical turnarounds.
  • So you have to make sure that you are paying throwaway valuations for them, now this does not mean 52week low, this means actually looking at the value of the business and what valuation you are paying.
  • You have to see if the negatives are being priced into the valuation. This is because if the turnaround does not go as per your thesis, then atleast your downside is protected.
  • Hoping for a bounce back? for a bounce back to happen the company needs to actually turnaround right? what is your thesis for their turnaround? why will they turnaround? what is changing?
  • If you are just buying at a 52 week low hoping for to move up 20-30% then in all honesty you dont really need a thesis for that.
    -All you have to do is find 52 week low cos, bet on the ones with decent mgmt and hope for some upside. out of 100 you get 55 right and the rest you dont lose much you should make some money…

(Susindar) #30

Before you buy or sell your existing stocks, sort your holdings based on your conviction from high to low and do the following:

  1. read at least 1 annual report from the most recent one
  2. review the financial parameters in screener for financial health
  3. read the most recent credit report and review the credit rating
  4. read the most recent investor presentation
  5. review the shareholding
  6. if there is a valuepickr forum for the stock, read the entire thread
  7. do a scuttlebutt if possible

You may need to repeat some of these every quarter. Unless you are a full time investor, I am very confident you may not move beyond your top 10 or 15 convictions. That is the reason everyone of us in the forum is asking you to reduce your holding to around 20 stocks.

Depending on your level of experience and knowledge in stock investing, you can invest in the type of stocks in the below order as they will become increasingly harder to value and costly to make a mistake.

  1. growth stocks
  2. value stocks
  3. cyclical stocks
  4. turnaround stocks

All the best!


(hari_) #31

Okk. I will do my homework and keep updating. Thnx a lot for ur inputs.


(hemavanteru) #32

i didn’t find any wrong with the stocks you are holding. but my worry is how will you allocate money when these are come down. you have told that you want to make good / lot of money, definitely you can do it. but none made it in short span of time. Income tax purpose only 1 year means LONG TERM, but in true sense it is not LONG TERM ( may be Micro Term, because we like lot micro caps).

All the best for your investing Career. All the comments from our members are really valuable. Please follow and PRACTICE THESE.


(KKP_Investor) #33
  1. Critical is what is your objective of each stock? What I mean is do you have a level where you will be lightening up on some of the stocks?
  2. There are times when Large Caps, Mid Caps and Small Caps perform with a different level of vigor and at times the valuations are stretched for a category of these three and hence may need to start thinking about selling or buying more.
  3. Also, looking at the portfolio from a ‘sector’ allocation perspective is critical. For example, are you too much into IT or Pharma or Chemical or Agro or Mfg or … If so, then a bit of a sector balancing is also critical.

I am curtailing a lot of my thoughts since moderators are a bit ‘critical’ on this forum and just want to give a macro level view. Hope you can read a lot into it (Hari and others).

KKP


(hari_) #34

Ok, got it. I have a ceramics and metals heavy pf. Am trimming my pf. Will post update next month