When the bonus quantity will reflect in the demat?. Share Price has been reduce but no of share still showing previous no.
Check with your demat account provider. Rules say that you need to deposit in 21 days. But a few folks have already got it. Am yet to get it . I use ICICIDirect.
Latest interview of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala on CNBC.
‘People are underestimating the impact of Affordable Housing on India in general and the subsidy the Govt is providing. In 2018-19, we are going to cumulatively build 3 times the houses we built in 2016-17 and 2017-18. Sector is ripe for good times ahead in the next two to three years’.
I tend to agree with him. The best for Affordable Housing is yet to come in the next few years.
(4th minute on the attached video)
Hi @Rajesh1975 , I am able to understand till the Fair Value part i.e Rs 664 but not able to understand the part “Total Dividend to be received today comes Rs 59” . How to calculate the same ? Can you please help?
As per my calculation it is coming Rs 25.24 after considering Cost of capital 15% for 12 years
Another steady quarter from Gruh. PAT (YoY) grows by 20%.
If you apply the rule of 72, you should double your money in 3 1/2 years in Gruh (assuming PE remains same & they continue to grow at 20% p.a.). On top of that, you get dividends which grow each year.
I feel the growth rate will gradually pick up to above 20% as supply of affordable houses increases and PMAY awareness picks up speed. Nevertheless, even a 20% growth is great with NPA in total control.June 2018.pdf (480.6 KB)
Press Release July 2018.pdf (744.4 KB)
Any reason y disbursement is muted just 2% this quarter
Rev Inc 12% cyq-pyq
Pat Inc 20% cyq-pyq
Loan book Inc by Rs. 2192 crs cyq-pyq
Provision for expected credit loss is Rs. 3.77 crs vis a vis rs. 11.29 cr in the same qtr of last yr
Good results but no management commentary yet on how things on the ground are improving fro affordable homes. There have been good launched in Bangalore around this theme , not sure if this is a national trend. During one of the interviews they had mentioned FY19 is when the supply will come into the market.
Key take away from the above interview:
Continue to focus on 20%+ loan book growth; confident of achieving it
Last year same quarter, disbursement growth was high at 30%+ post demonetization stabilization & pre GST implementation. Thus YoY this year is low due to a higher base.
Credit quality is under control
Housing supply remains a challenge. Hopefully, the supply side should improve in the next few quarters and growth should pick up further
Gruh continues to be amongst my favourite4 which any stock portfolio must have to bring stability and a good nights sleep. The others being:
This year should provide ample entry opportunities into these and it may be a good idea to nibble into these on corrections. In my view, these are multi year hold stocks & holding them will test your patience as during your long holding period, there may be times when your other portfolio of small/mid cap stocks may be jumping up at break neck speed.
Some interesting quotes:
George Soros: "If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.
Paul Samuelson: Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas
Gruh Discounted Dividend.xlsx (11.1 KB)
In my opinion you have done some mistake while puting figures at year 1 and 2. Also I have taken into account year 0 as this was already December 17.
How you have discounted, it is not clear as it is not excel sheet. Please check attachment. You can check formula to arrive at conclusion how I discounted it.
Thanks a lot @Rajesh1975 for clearing the doubts.
In which type of business we should prefer this valuation Model ? To me where we have long term growth visibility like Hdfc bank, Asian Paints etc. Please correct if I am wrong.
Why we are considering here 10-12 years of time frame not 5-6 years time frame ? Can you please guide about this valuation model bit? It will be really helpful.
Yes you are right about the selection of businesses. Profit growth certainty and longevity of profit growth is always discounted in price. These businesses are never cheap unless facing problems. These should be kept in core portfolio forever unless they lose moat. This is my philosophy.
Why 12 years not 5-6 years
Simple, No body can predict short term. Stock price is too high, If anything happens on GDP growth front in US, worldvide markets will crash. Stocks like Gruh will also come down or will remain here for next 4-5 years, no body knows. People are too bullish for great companies. So discounting 10-12 years give consolation for people who are invested. After all market is the game of probabilities. Discounting for next 12 years for a finance company may backfire heavily if it happens like East Asian crisis, who knows ? I admit that I am subjective here, I dont see much value in next 4-5 years so I discounted for next 12 years.