Latest notes from Howard Marks. A wonderful read.
With due respect, it is not by Ray Dalio but by Howard Marks.
Sorry. Was watching a Ray Dalio Video and ended up writing his name. Enjoy the Ray Dalio Video…
Interesting reading - but applicable only to present American Market.
I would tend to agree.
When in India have we seen common man is benefited more than corporate and government?
Most of the taxes are collected from middle class and we do not get any benefit like in developed countries such as free education (UK/Europe/Canada), NHS(UK) and Pension for private employees (Most of the developed nations).
We need some revolutionary reforms to stream line all the taxes so that the one who pays the tax should get maximum benefits from government and not the other way round.
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One of the better sites from an overall perspective is as below
http://www.paulgraham.com/articles.html.
The essays by Paul Graham offer fresh insights into multifarious topics which I feel merit attention. Paul writes on an eclectic mix of topics which would prove to be quite a useful read. Am new to this forum, hence pardon me if I have violated any rules here.
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Ray Dalio’s principles, before his book launch
Characteristics of successful investors (a bit generalized)
A glimpse of how man & machine work ‘hand-in-hand’ at Amazon
A lot more Lithium mining is needed in the near future
Having a kaleidoscope of mental models helps in navigating the investment world when most are edges are disappearing
The tough stance of RBI and the changing regulatory environment is forcing Essar to look at paring its debt
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/insolvency-india-essar-group-others-digging-deep-funds/
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Ray Dalio: The Steve Jobs of Investing. Must listen Podcast.
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The Hard part of achieving 10X - 20X Multi-baggers
Who does not like to pick a 10 X multi-bagger? Everyone! I came across this excellent post by Ian Cassel on what to do and not do for picking big multi-baggers. Listing out few gems from the article verbatim:
- Time always pushes out the weakly convicted and creates opportunities for those with a long-term perspective
- Short-term investors will accept a 20% gain because they didn’t spend the time to develop the conviction and foresight to see the next 500%
- You can borrow someone else’s stock ideas but you can’t borrow their conviction.
- A multi-baggers journey is filled with the corpses of highly intelligent-articulate naysayers.
- Thirty years ago the best investors had the biggest funnels of information. Today the best investors have the best filters of information
… and much more.
One Fine article i read in sometime. Personally, i have taken a print out!!!
https://microcapclub.com/2017/09/need-others-dont/
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Robert Schiller on a possible US bear market - The US stock market today looks a lot like it did at the peaks before most of the country’s 13 previous bear markets
Need for regular saving of secondary income for creating a nest egg
India to grow out of the shadows of China in economic growth
The story of inMobi
The stunning fall of Toys ‘R’ Us
The problems with fiscal stimulus
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Also, one needs to get used to holding a business that isn’t always “cheap”.
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Excellent read. Thanks You. My favorite line: Just like anything else, the harder you “work,” the “luckier” you get.
Glad that it was a useful. Going forward, I plan to share here one fine article i read the previous week . Hope it will be useful for members here.
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To an extent, some innovative fiscal stimulus can help India.
For Example, there are some industries like IT, Textile, Telecom and few others were job producers till 2015 and those have turned job removers now. So some rationalization in income tax on these industries from current 30% to 25% can help to some extent. Textile industry currently has some of the tax benefits which can be extended to other job creating industries. This would increase their net income after tax and in turn may trigger some job creation.
By having GST which is as high as 28% in India, Government can now get more taxes through GST route so some rationalization in tax on companies is now an immediate need, to keep India competitive with Singapore, Asian countries and Canada. We have seen companies moving their head offices to Singapore to saves taxes so more rational taxation is required.
These are my personal views and financial experts would definitely have more brighter solution to current slow growth and negative job growth.
Not sure if this has been shared here before. Excellent primer on macroeconomics, economic cycles and everything around it. (by Ray Dalio)
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I have watched this video multiple times and always wonder where we are in the economic cycle. When there is de-growth in the economy and credit is not easily available, either govt can decrease interest rate (will cause inflation), print more money (which weakens the currency), or devalue the currency (making imports costlier specially crude for india). However I think in India’s context today there is one thing that is missing in the video that is Disinvestment. As RJ had said in one interview - govt has no business to be in the business. I think selling stakes in some of the PSU’s (possibly making them more efficient at the same time), govt can generate money which can be used as stimulus - may be fixing the NPA issue thus helping to make credit more easily available or boosting infra/power projects thus generating jobs that will increase income levels inturn causing more spending. View are welcome.
Also reading Ray Dalio’s new book Principles where he mentions when govt is saying it will not devalue the currency, it mostly will 
(or something on those lines.)
I have been wondering the same as well and the reason I posted it here was to see if it piqued someone’s interest for a discussion.
I think the US is in the phase of reflation. It now has to look for wage growth which will consequently improve their borrowing capacity and rates will rise as well but slowly and still remain low enough to stimulate growth. The fed will deleverage its balance sheet slowly over time either by selling back the securities (highly unlikely) or just letting them mature and not reinvesting the maturing ones which could take a good 5 years.
We are undergoing a reflation as well since we are in the process of deleveraging by handling our NPAs through debt restructuring, ARCs and write-offs. We are doing a sort of a redistribution of wealth as well through the tax reforms by bringing more people under the tax net. Before this we were only taking the easy way out which was printing money. Spending cuts have happened as well indirectly as our import bills have come down on Crude from $120 billion to around $70 billion now. This has in a way helped our deficits although the govt. had to do nothing difficult like the austerity measures as mentioned in the video. So in a way, all the 4 ways of deleveraging are currently underway. This should follow a wage growth, credit affordability and sustainable growth probably around the same time the US finds them. Let’s see.
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Donald Francis interview with Economic times
Insightful interview on the list of successful multi bagger picks, Luck Vs skill, advice to small investors and more. Inspiring!!!
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/this-value-picker-made-5000-in-avanti-doubles-wealth-every-2-years/articleshow/60837712.cms
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Donald admits he is not educated in the financial field, yet managed to outperform financial gurus who read and understand ARs and ratios… really remarkable.
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His is a inspiring story for rest of us who come to investing in direct equities from non-finance background and with no family background of stock market investing that wealth can be created by stock market investing if we are ready to put hard work and sacrifice time and energy for it.
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