Great articles to read on the web


(Abhishek Basumallick) #431

Absolutely stunning collection of FACTS that New York Times reported throughout 2018. A page to be bookmarked and read to learn, laugh aloud at and get amazed by.

A behind-the-scenes look at how Amazon rules work in protecting the consumer and how the system is gamed.

A very good piece on hyperinflation and how it has reared its head every few years across the globe and created social, economic and political havoc.

A peak into the new-age world of e-sports, video games as spectator sports.

More than 10 million people tuned in on streaming platforms like Twitch and legacy networks like ESPN, with a higher share of 18-to-34-year-olds than the Super Bowl or the NBA Finals.

It’s unclear what the popularity of e-sports among younger generations will mean for traditional pro sports. A 2017 study from Street & Smith’s Sports Business Journal found that the average age of a Major League Baseball TV viewer was 57, while the average ages for NFL, NHL, and NBA viewers were 50, 49, and 42, respectively. Meanwhile, nearly 63 percent of those playing Fortnite—the inescapable mobile game that’s made $1 billion since being released last autumn—fall within the coveted 18-to-24-year-old demographic.

Passion for the industry runs deeper in Asia, where gaming culture is more ingrained and American sports have less of a footing. South Korea recognized e-sports as a second-level Olympic sport in 2015, and this past August, e-sports made its debut at a major global athletic event with an exhibition during the Asian Games in Indonesia.

http://whartonmagazine.com/issues/fall-2018/the-billion-dollar-business-of-e-sports/

Companies are starting to bypass the Apple and Google appstore in how users discover, download and pay for their apps. Netflix has started this with iTunes and Spotify was quick to follow suit. It could be potentially disastrous for a company like Apple, whose so-called platform business can disappear very fast, leaving it as a hardware manufacturer of phones which people don’t care for any longer.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/01/04/app-store-war-between-netflix-apple-is-heating-up/


(pennywise) #432

A great long read on the effect of operant conditioning on market participants.


(kdjolly) #433

Written by our own : @basumallick

Learnings from year when even Warren Buffett took big blows


(Divyanshu Bagga) #434

Failure of value investing?

The company was trading for 1000 crores and had recieved a cash of 1550 crores. Simple value buying opportunity, right? But you should be most careful when the opportunity is too easily visible. There is always a catch. Like in this case, markets were predicting promoters intentions that even the best of investors could not forsee. Money is claimed to be siphoned off through write back of profit, loans to promoter entities. At present, a complaint is pending for forensic audit, so that siphoning of wealth can be proved


#435

Missed the point. What happened to 1500 cr cash


(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #436

Worth a look.


(ranvir dehal) #437

http://www.mydigitalfc.com/fc-supplements/invest/pv-penetration-rate-increasing

Some great insights on the current state of Indian auto ( 2 wheelers and PVs ) industry.

Disc: invested in Bajaj Auto, Maruti and Hero Motocorp


(Somit) #438

Frightening analysis by Prof Bakshi on NHAI Debt (and how this does not appear as Govt debt!)


#439

Well, I respect the prof. but I don’t think this is so scary for the following reasons:

  • Most of these assets will remain with NHAI for perpetuity so they can raise finances whenever they get to own it themselves.
  • The country needs this infra so somebody has to pick the tab and none better than govt since it has cheaper way of financing the same. Pvt. guys are simply unable to finance the same.
  • Lot of HAM projects will start generating funds for NHAI very quickly compared with BOT projects and they would pay the road contractors in 15 installments.
    – This analysis will not be complete without forecasting revenue from these projects.

(Somit) #440

I don’t disagree with your second point and yes at the end of the day the money raised is being put to productive use which the country needs desperately. Your second point actually also highlights a separate concern given how the ILFS saga is unfolding and the fact that the alternative PPP model is failing and the banks and NBFCs will be reluctant to lend to the sector. On the 3rd point, analysis I suspect becomes difficult since the disclosures are poor which is one of the concerns.

The frightening part for me is the fact that the Rs 148,276 cr (as on September, 2018) is not consolidated as Govt Debt despite investors and rating agencies treating this as having government guarantee. This number is large enough to move the needle on the fiscal deficit number we are currently struggling with.


(Changu Mangu) #441

Insightful Conversation.
Key Highlights:

  1. The most important thing is: Risk
  2. The most important thing is: Understanding Market Cycles.
  3. It is not the return you make, it is the risk you take to make the return; ie: risk adjusted return.

#442

How did you figure out that it is not consolidated as government debt? How is something like Air India different?


(raghav sharma) #443

Budget Thought?


#444

If I have to play one sector for this budget, it will be country liquor. 6k is not big enough to help deleverage but takes care of small ticket consumption like daily quota of liquour.


(Bharat) #445

Found this a Good Read. It is about the ideas of experience and knowledge, two words that are related, but often misused. The article quotes an example of a company which gave satisfactory dividend, acceptable Return on Equity, impressive profit margins, low debt but still gone out of the business due to changing behavior of targeted audience.

In Author’s word , Investing is not just products and numbers, you are a part owner of a business, and businesses only exist in marketplaces, and marketplaces are always changing. Plus competitors come at you from places you do not expect.

Humility really matters in investing, investing is about the future, and the future is unpredictable. Staying humble means understanding that no matter how hard you crunch the numbers, this isn’t calculus class, and the answer you derive is never perfect. One day, it is kids playing with dolls, and the next day some California guy in a black turtleneck puts a piece of metal in everyone’s hands, and a 60 year old toymaker goes poof.

P.S: The article is by a 16 Year old Girl.


(Changu Mangu) #446

Latest memo from Howard Marks: Political Reality Meets Economic Reality


#447

There is a saying “old water goes way with the arrival of new water”, automobiles swallowed carts, ballpoint pens made fountain pens disappear etc. These disruptions were always there, except that the speed at which the change is happening is bothering. And from the perspective of consumers, these changes are good, you get more for your money, more utility, more longevity, more satisfaction. From an investor’s perspective, it is hard to imagine and counter the ever-changing world filled with innumerable technologies.

Like Jeff Bezos said, the question should be what will not change in 10 years. But then again, if everyone takes shelter in such companies, their valuations will be always high. Also, I don’t think many investors are afraid of these changes, rather they embrace them, as they have their edge, they can take risk as they can afford losses and when they are rewarded, it is worth their effort.

Just my thoughts.


(Bharat) #448

Completely agree with your thoughts.
There may be very few business which will exist for long and buying and forgetting won’t work in our times of fast changing world.
Many examples are always given like If you had bought this 20 or 30 years back and have forgot it , you had created this much wealth et cetera. I believe with the technology in hand and lots of innovation happening , an investor should always be vigilant and keep analyzing the companies he hold over a 2-3 year period rather than permanent Buy and Forget for 10-20 Years.
Definitely it is hard to imagine and counter the ever-changing world but staying updated with latest trends are very much necessary.

It is necessary to watch what new things are into markets, make careful observations about products used in the world. Look if the company have a stable moat that will work out for the long term. Buying a stock is just the start as businesses are always changing and so once one buy, monitoring how the companies are doing in the marketplace is must.

The entire game is about risks and rewards.


#449

Absolutely, I wish such old times exist now. Invest and forget for 20-30 years and voila you have made substantial gains. Those were simpler times, in every sense. Now one has to be vigilant and keep an eye on what’s happening, I did not, so I have to pay the price - convert notional losses to real losses and salvage the remainders. The unknown unknowns are to be discovered if one smells smoke, that is the lesson.

Despite the simplistic nature of the concepts, for someone like me, it takes time to learn and practice but as it gives me some kind of joy, purpose and closure along with the possibility of gains, I am willing to do it.


(ASP) #450

Rising ITR emphasis on online process makes me think about egovernance companies.
Launch of umang app.