Graphite Electrode : Graphite India/HEG

(Shrihari) #128


The rate of $15000 per ton is an assumption made on the basis of the conference call conducted by HEG mgmt in the following link. (Page 21 has some details)

With respect to Tokai Carbon, their realisations on the basis of your calculations are quite low. While their website mentions annual capacity of 96k tons, I suspect capacity utilisation is lower than 90%.

I was not able to find details on how many tons they have sold, however, I did get some data on the price realisation as of Dec 2017 in the link below (which should have been realised in Q2 and later)

32-28 inch 24-18 inch

920,000 Japanese Yen / metric ton 900,000 Japanese Yen / metric ton

(d) Others:

16 inch and below 1,300,000 Japanese Yen / metric ton Shortening of payment term

The above works out to $8275 and $11700 per ton but the data is dated. This also leads me to believe that capacity utilisation is lower than 90%.

(madhavikkutti) #129

I think, recent listing of Graftech has helped in getting the attention of many major research firms on the Graphite story. As per the following article, brokers have set a twelve-month consensus target price of $25.67 for the company. JPMorgan has even set an “overweight” rating and a $29.00 price target on the stock. Stock price has increased almost by 30÷ since its listing last month. Other Graphite companies like Showa Denko and Tokai Carbon also have increased by more than 20÷ last month.

(Mahendra243) #131

GI/HEG will be in ASM from June 1st with 5% circuit and 100% margins levied with other bunch of stocks

(madhavikkutti) #132

(Akshay Kumar) #133

HEG Investor presentation 19 June 2018.

(tbhavesh) #134

(tbhavesh) #135

Indian graphite electrode sector - Macquarie.pdf (2.6 MB)

Recent report from Macquaire on Graphite stocks

(madhavikkutti) #136

Please find my Earnings calculations for Graphite India (GI) and HEG in the attached pdf. For various Graphite Electrode (GE) price realizations and two scenarios of Raw Material prices, the pdf will provide you the corresponding earnings for 3 separate years- FY19, FY20 and FY21. The two scenarios are the following:

Scenario 1: Raw Material price assumed to be 15% of the revenue, as it was the case for HEG in Q4’ FY18. This would get us the most liberal estimates

Scenario 2: Raw Material price assumed to be 32% of the revenue. This would get us the most conservative estimates

The pdf contains all the assumptions made by me in an elaborate way, which we can discuss, if you have any inputs:

Graphite India & HEG Earnings Calculations.pdf (359.6 KB)

Please note that, these are just calculations and no way I am recommending these stocks.

Disc: Invested in both Graphite India and HEG

(Balusu Aditya) #137

Unaudited results for Q1FY19.
QoQ compared to March 2018.
22.8% increase in revenue
21.5% increase in PAT
21.5% increase in EPS.
OPM increased to 74.12% from 71.12%

(niravacharya) #138

results are out…

(mohinish) #139

HEG’s operating profit shot up 4975 percent year-on-year to Rs 1,187.6 crore and margin expanded sharply to 74.8 percent in Q1FY19 from 11.4 percent in Q1FY18 and 73.6 percent in Q4FY18.

(VJ) #140

HEG Says On Track To Meet Growth Forecast

(tbhavesh) #141

HEG - Jefferies.pdf (631.6 KB)
HEG Macquarie.pdf (451.3 KB)

(paresh.sarjani1) #142

HEG is out of ASM from today

Disclosure: Not invested

(Abhishek Basumallick) #143

Q1 FY19 Results for Graphite India: