Vivek
Graphite India Q3 results were somewhere close to 6500 if I am not wrong and still GI managed an EPS of 17.5 . In my calculations even at 9500 USD per tonne they should be able to cross 100 EPS in 2018-2019
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Just to put the numbers into perspective: l had shared my estimates for Graphite India for various ĢE and needle coke cost scenarios earlier on the following thread:
For a price of USD 10,000 for GE cumulatively for the next 5 years, Graphite India will generate an after-tax cash of Rs. 9,630 crores, and any interest/other income will be additional. For a GE price of USD. 14,600 (which is the current price as said by MD of Vardhman Special Steels), the cash generation would be significantly higher at Rs 15,995 crore.
In spite of running from pillar to post (of-course on internet 
, I know no one who I can talk to on this) I could not get any supplementary information to confirm the data presented in the below graph. I could not reach the website of source - IC Carbon mentioned in the graph.
In light of above the information becomes suspect and we need to corroborate it.
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Reuters report last year said 30% of capacity was shut and most provinces were restricting output. In that case, how can production increase from 520000 to 610000? It makes no sense. This IC Carbon website doesn’t seem very reliable to me and neither is the whois information on the domain. The Email addresses they have given are msn.com addresses! Doesn’t seem to be a professional organisation so I think its better to disregard this.
Disc: Invested
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Good read for Graphite stock lovers, great news for the future of GE. pic.twitter.com/jzMdXeNUWp
— Stocks Picker (@anandchokshi19) March 3, 2018
This tweet has the complete article…
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Hi @jitenp
You had mentioned on the cyclicals thread that you have exited all your positions in GE players. Can you elaborate a bit more on the rationale behind that? You being an expert on cyclicals, can help us understand the current situation better.
I have invested small amounts in both HEG and GI considering the 2/3 year GE outlook, but not sure if it is the right time to invest more. Your views will be helpful.
Thanks
Amit
Vanguard is a reputed fund house…so they think thta GE story is still intact for years to come if not months?
This is brilliant news!
Vanguard is almost entirely passive funds. They buy/sell based on MSCI & FTSE index. There were some recent index changes, GI might have gotten added or had its weight increased.
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@KiranP does it mean that they are not
Likely to hold these stocks long term and can sell say tomorrow/in a month based index values?
This does not seem like a passive fund investment - Vanguard group as I see in India also has invested in the likes of Ola,Flipkart in the past. So as I understand Vanguard also has actively managed investments in India, though I am not sure. Comments?
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Y would they buy both GI and HEG then ?I think they would be invested in the long term …And also these stocks are volatile as well especially HEG
Some back of the envelope calcs for HEG - Any thoughts on the Realization per T ? HEG will also be completely debt free at the end of this quarter in my opinion
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Capacity 20000MT.is it right?
Sorry got it.quarter calculation
There’s a presentation on right with slides.
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HEG and Graphite India have in the past 12-15 months delivered an extraordinary performance, results wise as well as stock price performance wise. Their market cap has exceeded 2 billion USD. In my limited understanding, a major consumption of graphite electrodes is in the steel industry. Steel, like all other commodities, is cyclical in nature. It has been in a major up cycle. However, up cycles have to end. Companies have been announcing capacity expansion. However, predicting commodity tops is extremely difficult. But, in the worst case scenario, if the steel cycle ends abruptly, graphite stocks could take a massive beating, thanks to the already heavily built optimism.
I may be totally wrong. But, at these valuations, there’s not much room for things to go wrong. If they do, the price erosion will be quick, sharp.
Commodity cycles have longer duration be it bearish or bullish.Steel cycle is in nascent upcycle and expected to last another 3 to 4 years minimum. With Indian infra push and global hardening trend of steel prices, we can reasonably expect the cycle not to end abruptly. Having said that GE have a special place in the steel cycle, and varoius predictions suggesting GE uptrend for foreseeable future, there is no reason to be overly cautious. Of course, stock investing carries its own risks. Good Luck