if you guys dig a little deeper in tdi there is techinical grade difference between tdi supplied by sadara and gnfc
for sheela they were earlier using dow so it is ok they can try out sadara it is highly unlikely foam manufactures to suddenly change tdi supplier.
so as far as q4 fy 18 and q1 fy 19 there is no visible problem which should at the increased rate of tdi prices they should be able to close at 1300/1400 ebitda.
so as far as tdi price for another two quarters there is no worry also the demand side uptick is coming from the automotive side for tdi with mdi blend
the coding buisness will be able to increase in fy19 by another 50/60 cr the fertiliser segment iam not sure but could see some bottomline addition
third the mosquito replent and the soap will get a good boost in fy 19
all said and done IMHO 600/630 looks like a resonable price in near term.
there is some paid coverage reports by brokers giving some fancy targets also.
so down side is capped well and upside potential is visible and the risks are known and researched properly here in this forum so as far as iam concerned a 20/25% return seems resonable with 10% to 15% risk play
Can u explain the technical difference in more specific fashion to enable analysis?
I have been following all the leading urethane blogs, none mentiones such demand, nor any tm80 blend manufacturers in europe atleast, dow dosent produce it also, covestro has idea but not materialized, hanwa is difficult to understand totally and thry are not clear about their blends too, please enrich if i have missed anything…
Having said that till july there is no threat to tdi, but the problem is with traders, a very very important aspect to this tdi inflation was the role played by traders, they became so much active in inflating prices that the market went into stalemate in october…
capsule as of now the specfic information is still under paid coverage report which will be against the forum rules to copy paste.
i will give the link once in public domain
Ok…
If you have got the headlines then well there must be some facts behind it…
But i am getting uncomfortable as there is going to be a lot of news froth in the prices soon…
Like suhagpatel 's link to the new interview…
Guys, can we try to find out GNFC TDI customers Domestic as well as international?
If we can get the list, we can try to find out the price GNFC is charging to each of them. If you see Sheela’s price information is almost real time. With such details it would be very easy to figure out the TDI price trend and our dependency on external factors will reduce to an large extent.
I don’t know if all other customers would be sharing details the way Sheela is sharing but lets give it a try.
Regards,
Suhag
I am not aware of fundamental but technically the stock by closing above 486 levels for two days with resistance at around 516 is poised for 540 a conclusive close above 532 level can take it to 660
Good idea, @suhagpatel …
Why dont everyone of the active members take a shot at it. we will uncover potential details and monitoring tools…
I have got a little busy of late, guys please substitute me for sometime ahead and help me out a bit too…!
Thanks…!
Covestro says tdi prices are due to come down from second half of 2018
And to get a license and start mdi capacity in greenfield takes minimum 7years!
“TDI is a fly-up, MDI is structural. Demand has been averaging near 7% for the last few years… that means you need a world-scale plant every year, which isn’t there,” he said.
Source…https://www.icis.com/resources/news/2018/02/21/10195317/covestro-eyes-coatings-bolt-on-acquisitions-amid-crazy-m-a-margin-backdrop-ceo/
News have started to become uncomfortable…
Now even a tdi high price headlining article comes out to be cautionary…
TDI Prices as of this week are at 330-335/Kg. Nigel also confirmed that while covering GNFC in Midcap Mania last Monday on CNBCTV18.
We will have to see how the prices go from here on as supply side situation improves in near future.
So far no luck in finding GNFC TDI customers. Other friends can pitch in if they found anything useful.
Regards,
Suhag
Tdi prices will actually increase in march to 4600$…
Was just doing a tchincal analysis with the daily charts, i was amazed with the bearish patterns that are happening at cmp…
So i thought i will share this information with the forum and take a technical view of others…
Have a look…
- There is a symmetric triangle formation which has a uptrend break out point in the range of 482 to 486 base on fibonacci level of 61.8%
2.But the horrifying thing is the development of a bearish gartley pattern with the triangle, although the last limb of the pattern is yet to form, all the essential checks of th gartley has been met and a bearish reversal is waiting to happen, although as a disclaimer, gartley himself mentioned there is a 60percent accuracy of this pattern…
3.Both the patterns in combination…
Since the gartley is not that accurate i used ichimoku cloud and the results were uncomfortable, as the potential reversal zone was matching the decision points of the ichimoku system also, the cloud and the back ward price line above the lagging pink line…
4.To triple check i took the gann fan to confirm the theory, still the most bullish 8/1 line was traversing through the PRZ, and the 8/1 angle line is the resistance for the most bullish trend, [action similar to the 1/2 support line which rejected the previous bear trend and reversal happened ]…So accordingly even if the strongest bulls starts acting 8/1 = PRZ will reject the price action…
My over all assessment is if the PRZ is not broken with huge volumes then a down trend will begin and also i am not comfortable with the double top kind of formation in the weekly charts…
Anyone have a different approach of the technicals please come forward with you analysis…
Disclaimer… Invested
I’m not bearish looking at the chart.
Yes, symmetrical triangle is forming. It has already formed lower high and higher low, and reversed from the higher low. So it can give a breakout anytime. It doesn’t necessarily have to wait until it reaches the edge of the triangle (482 to 486) to give a breakout. There is also a possibility that it forms one more set of higher low and lower high before breaking out, or in the worst case, it may breakout the support provided by lower side of triangle and go down to form a descending triangle. So, we have to give it few sessions time to monitor.
This doesn’t qualify a Gartley pattern at all. For Gartley pattern, the AB move should be approximately 61.8% of XA. But here t is 76.4%. And the BC move should finish either on the 38.2% Fibonacci level, or on the 88.6% Fibonacci level of the prior AB leg. But here it finished on the 58.3$ Fibonacci level. Hence it is definitely not forming a Gartley pattern. No need to panic here.
Currently it’s taking support at 2/1 line, and it’s still bullish. So we can still see a move upto 8/1 line which is around 500. Breaking the 8/1 line, we can check later. But we can’t tell that it’s bearish because it can’t break the 8/1 line that easily.
To sum it up, I trust the symmetric triangle. If it gives a breakout, it can take the price above all-time high.
I respectfully disagree with the gartley defination…
And i maintain my bearish stand, although this gartley can change into a deep crab if the point D extends to 1.618 fibonacci ratio… At 1.6 the price is around 620…and the points of B and C all matches the current gartley numbers…
So if deep crab happrns we will get a good run up within the harmonic pattern but even though this till be a bearish crab… And that will be the top followed by a bear hold…
I think time has come to be caution on the top…
I am definitely bullish on the symmetrical triangle, but still that breakout does not warrent a sleep in peace when a gartley or a harmonic variant is in formation…
Acc to BAMM = Bat Action Magnet Move theory, if the point B or rather in this case 0.5 (as point b is 0.5 in bat pattern) mark around 482 to 486 is crossed with significant volume and momentum, we can see a temporary stall of the bearish naturenof the gartley and a upmove can happen above the PRZ but there the momentum indicators should be used to note the overbought situation, that will be another top…
To sum it up, if there is a gartley pattern with bamm or deep crab pattern, we can see price going above the PRZ but will reverse soon on a bearish downtrend, else if a simple gartley happns we can see the peak soon amd a bear run after that…
Lets see what happens…
Did i miss any bullish signs other than the symmetrical triangle??
China is starting up mdi capacities…
Source huntsman concall transcript feb 23,2018
As far as tdi in my previous sxreen shot capacity is also starting in yantai by wanhua in china…
Peter huntsman mdi margin outlook 2018…
While too early to know for sure, I suspect the short-term spike in margins will soften a bit and that the first quarter will look more or like the third quarter of last year. As we look beyond the first quarter, the remaining short-term spike in margins could soften a bit more as commodity component prices cool.
Now foam companies like Gaco are hiking prices to passthough the rm price hikes…
Why now after all the massacre is already done in their margins in 2017?
Mire experienced memebers please tell, is it becausr they expect the raw prices to remain as high as now as till so l9ng even after expecting so much the prices have not come down and now pass through?
Or
Are they thinking the raw pruces will go down and in the process recover some margins lostbin 2017?
I think the firstbone is more likely in such a cimpititive market of foams, no one would like to price hike now when raw supply may soften the prices a bit…
Please share ur views…
Current GNFC TDI Price to Sheela foam effective 22nd Feb is Rs. 325/Kg. Rs 10 less than all time high price of Rs 335/Kg.
Even though Rs 10 is a minor fluctuation, we need to quickly find out GNFC customer list for TDI for better tracking of prices.
Regards,
Suhag