GNFC - Turnaround Taking Hold


(Capsule91) #203

Current borrowings will be there always to fund the business…finance costs due to these short term loans are minute…
I dont think anyone should be concerned about that…
If dbt was applied then intially the working capital needs would have been more intense, thats not there also…
Yes, neem division is just a fetus but we have to be patient here to unlock its value…

Please provide the source of this information pertaining to gnfc specifically…

Please mention specific red flags u see, we are all in for hearning about the negatives…


(Mikesingh) #204

Well for CSR fund, you can just google through the news, recent being buying cows in Amethi, there are few other similar things.

Well if a company is making profits and claiming reduction in financing cost,
I feel that must show in cash flow statement,
Good operating cash yet higher short term borrowings doesnot add up.

Neem FMCG is in foetus stage urea neem coat isn’t, where is the revenue?


(suhagpatel) #205

CSR news were denied by the company on the same day it surfaced. Its more of a political play so i would not read much into it unless a clear link is established with GNFC.

I think many forum members have contributed here to evaluate GNFC both on positives and negatives. Would request you to go through the thread to understand it better and then give your views.

Regards,
Suhag


(Mikesingh) #206

I have read views, I am invested in GNFC,
Kindly don’t advice me on what I should be doing, you can prove me factualy wrong, I would be happy to revisit.

CSR thing is true, you can check on govt sites!
Rest, it’s nothing against GNFC, it is about knowing the happenings.


(Capsule91) #207

I dont understand what you are implying…

What do u mean by higher short term borrowings??
As of h1, the current borrowings have been reduced drastically from 1073cr at march end to 401cr at sept end…
The working capital requirement has come down from 800cr plus in fy17 to 600cr in h1 to presently about 300cr as mentioned in the recent interview…
What else do u need from all the cash flow generation?
533cr of long term debt also wiped off…

U seem to be posting just for the sake of it, thats why a fellow boarder has asked you very politely to refer to earlier posts if that can help u with info…
We have already discussed all these basic issues number of times…

Regarding CSR, please post references which i asked of u to effect and link gnfc with suspicision, not gossip stories…specially when management is in denial…
If u have had read previous posts , we always back our speculation with references…

I dont understand what you tried to express there, but we are only saying neem revenues are yet to show up…and which is not a red flag as yet…
U mentioned nothing except a CSR gossip as a red flag…


(Mikesingh) #208

This post was flagged by the community and is temporarily hidden.


(Capsule91) #209

Thank you for the small amusement u gave us …

After all we came to know about cows…
We were researching too muh deep into annual reports, tdi global and indian markets n all, that we had forgot about cows…

Its feels good atleast some one is there to notify us , if gnfc starts purchasing cows instead of touluene…

Good luck to you too sir!
And oh btw, there is a thing called financial statements, it is released every three monthly , in that there are numbers, which are disclosed to SEBI… the numbers i mentioned had been taken from there only, not some news article…

To all fellow boarders, this is an issue, honestly :grin:… We need to start doing dcf analysis to find out the intrinsic value of cows, 10000cows is not a joke, it can put a dent on our expenses if purchased…
If anyone has any idea, on the valuation of cows plz help us with the expense number which this can generate, we need to price in this in our forward multiples…
Disclaimer… Invested


(Raj Nair) #210

This is Fake news.
GNFC has clarified via Twitter.


(suhagpatel) #211

TDI Prices increased by Rs. 10/kg. Current price @ 310/Kg. This is getting interesting now. Difficult to predict a trend.

Regards,
Suhag


(Capsule91) #212

Here is some Chinese TDI news after a long long time…!!

http://www.pudaily.com/News/NewsView.aspx?nid=70490

surprisingly more than the supply the demand has weakened in PMDI which has triggered a massive decline in Polymeric MDI prices to 15month low…
http://www.pudaily.com/News/NewsView.aspx?nid=70694

Last week report on china tdi prices…
“prices remain in the range from stable to soft”
[no figures found]

I will request help to analyse the development in china and how will it be affecting the international prices, if, at all…

An old report for future references…

And a very nice report for our chemical industry as a whole…
http://www.pudaily.com/News/NewsView.aspx?nid=70868


(Capsule91) #213

Please help me analyse the effects of a withdrawal of antidumping duty in china both locally and globally?


(suhagpatel) #214

GNFC partners with Sleepwell to develop PU mattresses for the rural masses. Its getting interesting now. Considering the TDI capacity they have this seems logical if implemented well.

Regards,
Suhag


(Mridul) #215

This looks more like part of their CSR initiative (like Neem products). “We are in the process of evolving methods for coating mattresses with neem oil, which is known for its insecticidal properties,” gushes the GNFC MD. With its name now synonymous with several neem oil byproducts including soaps, shampoos, face wash, hair oil and mosquito repellents, all of which are doing brisk business, its foray into mass consumption and neem-coated mattresses would only add to the fertiliser major’s already impressive list of best-sellers.

I don’t see this project going anywhere at least in next 3-5 years. They have been doing “neem this neem that” from quite some time. Where has it gone? FMCG play is a different ballgame altogether.

I hope they remain focused on what they are doing, improve fertilizer business efficiencies, and come up with a good expansion plan.


(suhagpatel) #216

Neem is certainly not a CSR if they can execute what they have been saying. 500Cr revenue in next 3 years can’t be a CSR activity. The only thing we need to track is if they walk the talk or not.

They had a target of 50Cr revenue from neem products for FY18 and going by recent interview of CMD they should be able to achieve it. Results and concall of Q4 should give a clear picture on that.

Regards,
Suhag


(Mridul) #217

Suhag - How i look at things. These guys have 5200 cr rev. If they achieve 500 cr in 3 years (which i highly doubt), it would still be less than 10% of the overall revenue. Neem is a theme which they started as CSR and want to take it to the next level, but it has been quite some time (they have been giving targets), but haven’t come up with a plan, margin profile and stuff. So, i do not want to pay heed to it even if it is a success in a few years. It will hardly contribute in next 5 years.

Need something substantial to add big to rev/pat in % terms.

One more thing - Mr. Gupta seems like a guy who likes to be a cynosure. So many interviews, so much media attention; tell me one other PSU which has been so much media savvy. This guy has been a success due to TDI up-cycle.

Don;t take this criticism personally. Just my two cents, mate.


(suhagpatel) #218

Mridul - There is nothing personal. Don’t worry about that. Criticism always helps if its constructive. I can’t analyze a company the way you guys do on this forum. I am still learning and all these different view points help to shape up my knowledge.

You are spot on when you say they are becoming media savvy. In fact that was the first thing which came to my mind when i saw the mattress article. Recently CNBC TV18 also traveled there to do interview of CMD and these things have gone up in recent past. Good thing is they are still delivering on their core business (considering chemical as core along with fertilizer).

Eagerly waiting for their expansion plans now as they are debt free.

Regards,
Suhag


(Bharat) #219

On personal care products development I have some update from vendors involved in supplying raw material/helping in development/some scuttlebutt.
Total 10 products in this cat
Shampoo, soap and hand wash already in the market. Body lotion, body cream, body scrub, hand sanitizer, baby oil, shaving cream and there is one more that has slipped out of my mind.
Getting good feedback on the R&D team quality and their energy.
On distribution front hearing that they want to tie up with Amul and make GNFC products available at all Amul outlets. This can be a big plus.


(Capsule91) #220

This is good development if happens…


(suhagpatel) #221

Thanks @typebharat for sharing the feedback. Would it be possible for you to talk to your contacts to find out the kind of margins GNFC has in this segment. As per them they have opened more than 20K+ stores/parlous for Neem product. Its a sizable number so if we can get some idea on margins then it will be easy to do some analysis there.

There are many Neem stores/parlors in Ahmedabad. Any views on how the model works, margins etc from VP members in Ahmedabad is highly appreciated.

Regards,
Suhag


(ap_21) #222

What is the expectation in Q4 results (in terms of revenue & net profit)?