I have been holding ITC since 2005, and it has been giving me 25-30% CAGR consistently. So I am pretty happy with ITC as part of my portfolio. At that point of time it was pure intuitive decision based on the cigarettes edge and the investments in Agri & FMCG business which I thought would pay off.
Today I am not in love with ITC - Capital allocation is suspect there. However I have not completed diligence on other FMCG bets to be able to say that a Nestle or a GSK will deliver better compounding over next 5 years, and why. With the rest of the economy being in doldrums - Valuations have kept getting abnormally rich in these (but with slowing growth) - giving me less incentive to finish off that work. I agree HUL seemed the least attractive of the lot - primarily being mostly me-too with little competitive pricing power. Thatway Page Industries can be a better bet with rich valuations but consistent high growth.
I do not have a FMCG pack view currently - I have to first complete the work for Marico, Dabur, Emami, etc to have a better more-complete understanding of the overall opportunity pie and individual company strength/weaknesses - the FMCG pack though has very diverse companies. And then I will finish the modeling above, present my views, and ask for critique/guidance on the same. Hopefully I will find enough time by Aug-Sep to complete this exercise, from my side.
Guys, please look at the excel worksheet provided in the model (FMCG-Decoded.xls) attached in a previous post. Apart from collated industry data, there are very concise individual sheets for Nestle, GSK, HUL, Colgate, PGHH, in there.You may like to complete details for left out companies like Dabur, Marico, and Emami etc therein - for the benefit of everyone.