Good companies have a way of coming back. HDFC Bank, when growth came down from 30% to sub-20%, Gruh, Page are other examples. My queries last week to multiple riders in Northeast and Himachal confirmed that Himalayan snags are over and they are in love with the bikes, waiting for 650 cc. I think growth slow down may increase the waiting period from 20-25 days to 2 months in 2018. Once new capacity plans are announced in May 2018, there is a possibility to jumping 25% volume growth. Hence, looks good from 3 year perspective, not so super great from 1 year perspective.
The global strategy is already taking a toll for HD. They are confused and don’t know where to set foot. They are now focussing on electric option too. When they are close to death, we don’t know if they will change direction. We have seen companies do many U turns when faced with near death.
I have reduced stake but still hold 10%. The probability of growth picking up is still there if they break other emerging market.
Which software/website is this?
This is my stencil I have designed mainly taking data from Screener.in . It is an access database linked with many external excel files … for EOD, 52W high Low etc
It gives :
Quarterly Results … YoY growth of Topline PAT … % Margins etc
Annual Results … YoY growth of Topline PAT … % Margins etc
Price Momentum and Corresponding PEs
Adding few parameters whenever I have time … such as Annual High and Low PE
Is it possible to send this stencil to me?
Really Amazing work …
Really amzing stencil. Would it be possible to get a version please?
Eicher is not truly a cyclical business and therefore month to month sales also needs to b compared.when we compare Feb 18 with Jan 18 sales, the sales are having negative growth.
Feb has 28 days and Jan had 31 days. In that respect 10 percent less days in Feb. Considering this, growth is positive.
Thanks for your reply and good observation , which I had missed
With due respect, I think you are confusing between cyclic behavior and seasonality which are two different things.
A seasonale behavior has fixed time series patterns of defined periodicity where as a cyclic behavior is not limited to consistent and defined periodicities .
The key reason to capture YoY number is basically seasonality factor and vehicle sales in India has a seasonal behavior hence I think the best comparison could be YoY numbers and a deterioration could could be guaged by slope of change in YoY month over month
Look at the top right charts which is like slope change in YoY sales month over month and is a good representation of falling growth rate
U r right.The correct word is seasonality rather than cyclical.Basically
what I meant was that the growth QOQ was coming down ,which is well covered
by the article forwarded by u.Thanks
I think you’re also missing out on the fact that people tend to buy more vehicles in January because they get a new year registration. If the vehicle is bought in December then come January the vehicle is already considered a “year old”.
Besides this, there are a lot of other factors that affect the sales of vehicles in a particular month. March and April would have its own implications because of end of FY and changes in the budget, while Diwali usually sees a huge uptick in sales. Many other factors like new launches (by the company or even its competitors), capacity expansion, short term blips for various reasons could affect the sales of the company and the numbers cannot be taken MoM at face value, a lot of these factors must be taken into consideration before drawing conclusions. My 2 cents.
The article provides an analysis based on Sales growth in numbers falling from 25% to 17% by December last year on a MoM basis and tries to make a correlation with stock prices.
Now January and February MoM growth is 31% and 25% compared to 17% of December.
YTD growth also being > 23%, the old article may not be relevant.
Agree, specially any downtrend post demonetisation and its interpretation as a long term reality must be taken with caution. I am not invested here,so, not aware of detailed numbers
Interesting to see such a big jump in > 350 CC.