Experiments are dangerous with your hard earned money. For experiments, you need to be a MF Manager…
i have selected a basket of 3 sugar stocks and started investing on weekly sip for 12 months with total combined portfolio of 5%. after few months if there is a visibility on the turnaround in sugar prices i will increase the allocation to 10%
The cyclical discussion is hijacking Dhwanil’s thread - we should probably have a separate thread for cyclicals.
Bala - I think your approach is a wise one. Keep us updated. I read Abhishek’s blog and other reports and decided to go with JKLA. I’m also aiming for 5% allocation.
Rudra - thanks for the link - so much info still to be read on TED!
One suggestion for playing cyclicals is to learn a lot about the industry dynamics. Here the call is more on the industry than the specific company. If you are focusing on cement, need to check the region wise dispatches , pricing strength, capacity utilization, capacity pipeline region wise, freight charges etc. The reward for picking cyclicals is very high if you can play it well.
Can they be valued on Mcap/sales and Replacement cost… Or which is best/accurate to value a cement company among the things which you have listed…
For cement stocks, I found the below article useful -
If time permits,could you please do a detailed write-up of takeaways from the Astral meet.
It would be great to have an update from your with regards to your current portfolio.
havent read about your portfolio for past 2 years
is it possible to share ?
Sorry for late response as I was busy travelling due to AGM season.
Here is the update on my portfolio…and it does look very different after 2 years!
In between, there were several entry/exits such as HMVL, GSFC, GRP, HIL, Ajanta Pharma, Kaveri Seeds, Mayur uniquoters etc. It will be difficult to give the transition here. However, I am sharing the current portfolio here
On personal front I maintain two portfolios, mine and my wife’s. Sharing the both with average buying price. Average buying price is indicative and not the exact ones and is adjusted for bonus/stock splits.
Note: I treat Amara Raja & Exide as one basket, as I feel it is a good way to bet on battery business while hedging risk and deriving optimal returns as the risk-reward looked attractive for Exide some time ago.
Disclaimer: I am not a research analyst/investment adviser and the portfolio here is not a buy/sell recommendation in any manner. Please do your own due diligence before taking an investment decision.
@desaidhwanil I didn’t know you owned Apcotex. have been tracking it for a while, but haven’t taken a position as yet. Need to compare notes.
@basumallick, I too did not know you track! Would love to compare notes on the same.
Though, my initial hypothesis was primarily based on Omnova business acquisition being not discounted by market…which I think is no longer the case. Having said that,I feel the base business is a reasonably good quality business and is run by very decent management. So, if they can turn the Omnova business around as they have planned, it can change the scale for them.
Thanks for sharing, what is the concept of two portfolios, if u can share the thought process
It was that way from the start and it got built up that way organically…not by design:slight_smile:. So, anything that looked worth investing, depending upon capital available (from my wife’s savings), I built position in respective portfolio. Only constants were the capital allocation philosophy and investment style. However, large part of portfolio 2 was built more recently (last couple of years) while Portfolio 1 consist of 4-5 year old investments as well
Since no. of stocks in your portfolio is large due to two diff portfolios & many opp/tracking bets, how do you keep track so many stocks?
It is getting difficult! In the core portfolio, the good part is that lot of companies in portfolio 1, I have been holding for quite some time and hence have a good hang of the business.So, I have fair ideas what to track and I focus only on that. Moreover, the portfolio churn has reduced considerably in last year or so, so at least number of additions to portfolio are less, reducing the effort.
On opportunistic bets, the good part is we have to watch out for key triggers only and wait it out and exit at the right time. Also, there is clearly articulated “Sell” argument in investment thesis, thus we know when we need to sell. Also, typically opportunistic idea is typically 1 (that too if I get that opportunity). For tracking positions, I have around 4-5 where, I look for developments only on quarterly basis and dig deeper only if I feel something interesting is happening.
So in all around 25 businesses I track at a time, which is challenging but still doable. Being full time investor helps, here at least!
Very surprised not to see HMVL in either of portfolios.
Great going dhwanil.
For those not conversant with dhwanil, he is one of the sharpest and methodical analyst of businesses with a keen eye on valuations. And thats amply reflected in the portfolio construct.
I guess HMVL got the pink slip due to lack of visible triggers/opportunity cost?
Any errors of omission/commission you would like to share?
I exited HMVL recently mainly due to availability of a better opportunity. I feel in HMVL, capital allocation has remained a overhang and management has time and again given some reason or the other not to distribute cash (reaching a critical level, then inorganic growth, thereafter organic growth, and lastly again inorganic growth!), so it was one of the first one to go out of my portfolio.