Dewan Housing Finance Limited


(paraa) #398

In the above article,answering to a question the doctor mentions "SSGR is primarily useful for manufacturing companies and would not be very useful for sectors like financial institutions like Banks/NBFCs/HFCs. Further, to complicate the matters, the information shared in the annual report of financial institutions is not sufficient to assess their financial position, therefore, I do not attempt to tweak/adjust the SSGR to suit FIs.

I would suggest you to proceed with you adjustments to SSGR formula with Net Long Term Loans and other such parameters and see the outputs to determine whether it is able to differentiate between good & poor performers in HFCs and other FIs."

Have you done any analysis on DHFL based on a tweaked SSGR Dinesh?


(Dinesh Sairam) #399

SSGR is just a rule of thumb. It makes very less sense for growing companies and as rightly pointed out, even less sense for NBFCs.

I’ve valued DHFL in its entirety in my blog. Why worry about a rule of thumb when I’ve done the real thing? :wink:


(Praveen Shekhar) #400

95% of boarders on Valuepickr seem to use extensive fundamental analysis and are very knowledgeable. Being a Technical analyst and using the same for all my trades (ranging from 2 months-2years); very rarely have i seen the system fail. I use FA to choose fundamentally good stocks which have corrected at least 30-50% from peaks and use technicals to make an entry into these with a target of 40-80% P/A returns. I would just like to share a very purely technical view of mine on DHFL though i do not hold the stock (yet). Hope it provides a different point of view and is of help to some(many).
The week of 3-9-18 witnessed a crossover on MACD on weekly charts which was a hint of impending correction. By the week of 17-9-18, it became apparent that the M top formation on weekly chart (also existed on monthly charts), would start working if price fell below weekly trendline price of 540. This happened with volumes and when centre of M also failed at 482, downside target of the height of the “M” from peak 691 to centre low of M at 468 which is 641-468=173. Hence a downside of 173 points from 468 was projected i.e 295. Personally i had expected the fall to take at least 2-3 months but it happened in a single day!!! Another problem was that not only did the fall go to 295, but also pierced past 284-267 peaks of 2015. That said since resistance turned support of 2015 failed on a single day fall, it was obvious that any bounce that came would be sold into as supply over-ruled demand as a direct effect of stock having crossed distribution phase and having entered excess(panic) phase. Hence currently my view is that from quarterly and monthly charts, DHFL is capable of going to 170-160 levels which would make a very attractive level to buy both fundamentally and technically. This goes without saying as at 170 fundamentally you would be buying at 2015-16 lows levels when the stock had managed to do 700 after that. Tough getting cheaper valuations by P/E, P/B or any other parameter. My fundamentals knowledge is limited to few ratios which i use to choose my stocks so please bear my ignorance if i say something dumb with FA. I would suggest we keep an eye on coming quarters, ROE, ROCE and promoters stake and ensure no fall or minimal at the best in any of these to avoid any further red flags. As a worst case scenario stock may test 150 also on a weekly low but i expect very sharp bounce the day that happens itself. Anything below 150 can be disastrous for DHFL (very low possibility) as that will open road to 130-95 levels. Peak, trendline, broken 2015 support and final target are marked by red lines on chart below. Hope this was helpful. Also as a new person i have been restricted to 3 replies per forum. When does that get increased, senior members??


(Jose) #401

Definitely there is going to be increase in cost of funds for nbfcs,funding nbfcs was very close to heart for many PSU banks ,who now are very sceptical about the same after the IL & FS fiasco.Banks has also started reviewing pool purchase of assets from these nbfcs and reassessing external ratings of nbfcs every 6 months


(praveen_sham) #402

While buying a house or car or anything else it’s a tradeoff between “interest rates” and “accebility to loan”. NBFCs are quite agile and nimble footed and hence they are much more closer to the potential customers than say banks. Customer don’t mind paying half a percent more to take loans from NBFCs than to take it from a bank which though slightly cheaper is usually not available. Paper work etc with NBFCs is much smoother and faster. Bottom line is :Higher cost of funds may not be an issue with NBFCs as they can easily pass it on to customers.


(Samir ) #403

I am suffering from DHFL directly My home loan was approved on20/09/18’.They took all charges but not disbursement of 13 lacs of 15 lacs loan amount (my house is 90%+complete.They replied to my email that due to half yearly book closure they can’t release now but would do soon.1st mail dated 3/10/18 ,2nd mail on 16/10/18’with same words.
Their sales executive tells that my cheque is ready but need HO’s nod which is not coming for almost 15 days assured initially (5/10/18).I am busy with them spending my time mostly on this matter.I will inform on this board as soon as I get my cheque.


(Samir ) #404

Certainly they are facing liquidity problem.Sales executive I am dealing with for my loan at their Kolkata branc told me two days ago that they have stopped taking new applications and first they will release approved loans then only see new applications.Due to Durga puja Kolkata office is closed this week.So let’s see next week what they do…But the mails from HO and words from sales executive in Kolkata was not convincing at all.


(AtulD) #405

FYI

Mutual funds holdings reduced approx. 4%, current hoildings are 3% approx.


(Shailesh) #406

image

Now this gyan on Real estate Loans . If one was so sure of this issue why he did not raise noise in past … Ok Better late then never


(devarshi84) #407

Dhfl fell fast hence caught attention. Even JM, LIC housing and indiabulls housing finance have fallen by a huge margins. It is time to stay away from hfc scrips for a while


(Growth_without Debt) #408

Buy Right - Sit Tight (Nothing correct) !! -
CMP: INR649 TP: INR765 (+18%) BUY


(EL) #409

Next few quarter results will most likely be below historic figures which will not go well with the markets

Short term view was to repay cheaper loans before maturity fearing that if it is dumped in the market it will lead to more selloff

We don’t know, until quarter results are out


(Samir ) #410

Are analyst, broking firm report- so called research paper reliable?Can there be rules that they can be held responsible and be penalised for their so called actions? Because stock market play havoc on retail investors,SEBI should formulate some rules so analysts,tv channels, experts should behave properly.


(Cshar) #411

I agree with yiur view point, i have done some analysis of all stocks recommanded by MOSL securities and found pump ans dump story in maximum of stocks, all stocks were recommanded to buy at historic high valuations for further upside and after research reports stock price nose dive by atleast 30-40 percent. RbL Bank, Manpasand beverages, PC Jeweller, Lincoln Pharma, DHFL all were recommanded by MOSL sold at higher level and dumped.


(Praveen Shekhar) #412

You sure did analysis on the stocks but didn’t do analysis on MOSL itself. It’s an age old story with such advisory companies, including individual TV analysts who all have separate advisory arms for HNI’s charging huge fees. Being a TA, i agree that at such peaks in certain stocks, there can be chance for further upside, but risk-reward goes up very high for such trades. They are famous names with lots of TV followers like Gujral, Thakker,etc. Simple concept. Ask folks to buy on TV. When volumes come and stock goes up by another 4-5%, the give sell reco to their own clients. Same happens in good stocks at bottom when a stock is holding support and refusing to slide further. They ask to sell and when support breaks, they pick up cheaper. It’s just a game of bringing in volumes at crucial places.


(EL) #413

Very true
Keynes spent half an hour a day every day and nothing more and did splendidly well
Even Buffet reads a lot from good sources like wsj which doesn’t give any recommendation just plain news
Once you find your stock it’s isually best to not worry or check it daily or atleast 5 years


(zomby) #414

Something like this


(Samir ) #415

Thanks to all of you for your valuable inputs.First of all there is no frr lunch nthey are here to make money.So they(broking firm,expect analysts etc)employ all kind of tricks to induce retail investors for their gain n their paid customers, otherwise why customers will pay if they get it free! Here n there they throw some good suggestion for their reputation.So we have to act like swan drinking milk n throwing out water…


(Praveen Shekhar) #416

It seems unfair,yes, but i would not blame anyone. 2 technical analysts can have completely opposite views even by viewing the same chart with same indicators. What one perceives as stock becoming bearish at peaks can be perceived as consolidation by the other with further upside left. Sometimes when i too am confused, i tend to look at the chart upside down also to see what someone with contrary view to mine may perceive.


(Praveen Shekhar) #417

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