The CEO himself pegged the revenue at around 90cr. Not a good idea to be more bullish than the management. I’d rather estimate 85 cr and 15 cr bottom line.
Secondly, people are speculating a lot on the bidding for Brazil and other tenders. Unfortunately, we don’t know what’s on the ground; the final outcome is mostly always different from what people expect. Concalls usuallly end on a high note but don’t reflect on the earnings. Eg. They’ve been looking for a CEO now for 2 years I think.
I think we should let time play out and see how things go. Secondly given the pattern of the order flow, I don’t think yoy or qoq comparison is a fair way to evaluate this company.
I did check personally with our company & they confirmed “As per current schedule cupid has to dispatch the order received from Tanzania till March, 2019.”
Regardless of the absolute level of recall, we should look out for Cupid’s response to this issue. This is a good chance to identify the management’s Corporate Governance standards.
The new indian order will be executed over 1 year, so about 25% of the order by March.
Management have asked for re-testing as they think something could be wrong with testing and are confident of their product. Maybe over the next con call we can get more details.
This is an interesting development. The India market is still at a very nascent stages, as far as condom usage in concerned. Nevertheless, this is an interesting bit of trend.
Condoms are used more for STD prevention perspective rather than pregnancy avoidance. The ways to avoid pregnancy are far easier to apply and doesn’t hamper sex.
So I don’t think contraceptive methods are gonna affect condom sales.
Birth control shots or pills cannot prevent HIV or STDs, they can do a decent job in birth control.
My hunch tells me that shots are more expensive.
The link above mentions that “with a number of adverse health effects, including menstrual irregularities (such as bleeding or spotting), abdominal pain, weight gain, dizziness, headache, nervousness and loss of libido. Apart from this, it is also associated with an elevated risk of breast cancer, and an increased risk of HIV acquisition. The drug’s American manufacturer, Pfizer Inc., has had to place a black box warning on Depo-Provera’s label cautioning about “significant bone mineral density loss”.”
To me, all of the above are serious and irreversible effects. Secondly, when couple have intercourse casually or especially commercially, the risk of HIV/ STDs is always there given commercial intercourse involves multiple partners, ineffective hygiene or improper cleaning of private parts etc.
Pfizer makes birth control shots called Depo-Provera, don’t know who manufacturers in India.
The objective of condoms in Africa is the emphasis of HIV and not the pregnancies related risks.
As for Cupid, as it is the company doesn’t have much exposure in India, it’s more in the B2B side.
I think Cupid has got a good product and process on their hands. But whether they step up their game plan with regards to finding a good CEO (Someone with a Sales background, preferably) and foray into B2C remains to be seen.
My views regarding the investment prospects remain the same. It it is a “heads I win, tails I don’t lose much” kind of investment.
On their concall they mentioned two prospective candidates for the CEO post, but both were uncertain and no clarity on when they’ll get one. How long will the business sustain without the sales opportunities they’ll miss that an experienced CEO can create?
