Cupid Ltd – Helping the world play safe!

(Vilas D'Souza) #1066

Can u share the link of Tanzania order?

(AbhijitMani) #1067

(Vilas D'Souza) #1068

Where’s it mentioned that the order has to be executed over 4 months

(vchhajed) #1069

I think this was mentioned on the concall.

(Ankit Kohli) #1070

Thank you for the summary.

One vendor for the Brazilian order pretty much rules Cupid out. Most procurement teams would ask for at least 3-4x revenue of the order size and experience of handling a similar-sized order — Cupid doesn’t meet both these criteria. It’s topline (85cr) is not even 1.5x the order size (~65cr) and it has never managed an order of this size in a single year. Hard to expect any procurement team with a solid prequalification framework choosing a vendor like Cupid. Not to mention that this is a government order where prequalification is usually more stringent.

Female Health Company (FHC) / Veru is likely to pip others to the post if it is participating and if indeed the goal is to choose one vendor.

Cupid probably brings the low cost advantage to the table — something that did work with the SA order that just expired but nothing else that I can think of at this stage. Tough one to win.

(Growth_without Debt) #1071

Please share source of information.
For your kind information, Cupid is the L1 bidder due to which Brazilian Govt extended time for cupid to submit remaining documents for pre-qualification. First order is small order and for which Cupid might be potential winner. Let’s hope for the best

(Subbu) #1072

I don’t think the Tanzania order is included in the 51 cr. I checked with company secretary. TOtal order book post this new order is 67 cr.

(Hardik) #1073

Yes, that’s what I have mentioned.

“this should add to the already projected topline of Rs.51 Cr.”

Topline is likely to cross 100 cr for FY19.

(Ankit Kohli) #1074

The source of information is the call notes posted above.

Can you elaborate on “First order is small order and for which Cupid might be potential winner”? Also, how is Cupid L1 if the prequalification process is not yet complete? Bids follow the prequal process, not the other way around. What am I missing here? I was not on the call yesterday so will be great if you can address these points and/or any additional notes that you have from the call. Thank you.

(Vilas D'Souza) #1075

The CEO himself pegged the revenue at around 90cr. Not a good idea to be more bullish than the management. I’d rather estimate 85 cr and 15 cr bottom line.

Secondly, people are speculating a lot on the bidding for Brazil and other tenders. Unfortunately, we don’t know what’s on the ground; the final outcome is mostly always different from what people expect. Concalls usuallly end on a high note but don’t reflect on the earnings. Eg. They’ve been looking for a CEO now for 2 years I think.

I think we should let time play out and see how things go. Secondly given the pattern of the order flow, I don’t think yoy or qoq comparison is a fair way to evaluate this company.

(mrai74) #1076

I did check personally with our company & they confirmed “As per current schedule cupid has to dispatch the order received from Tanzania till March, 2019.”

(vchhajed) #1077

Cupid has received an order through Tender Bidding process to supply Male condoms worth 25.23Cr to Central Medical Services Society, Govt. Of India

(mrai74) #1078

New order worth 25.23 Cr won by Cupid for male condom

(Vilas D'Souza) #1079

Was the 24 Cr order received last year from the same client? There were delays in client orders thereafter. Had that contract been completed?

(Janme) #1080

Any thoughts? How big is the recall?

(Dinesh Sairam) #1081

Regardless of the absolute level of recall, we should look out for Cupid’s response to this issue. This is a good chance to identify the management’s Corporate Governance standards.

(mrai74) #1083

Few key notes

  1. The letter was sent to Cupid on 20th Nov & recall plan was expected within 2 days
  2. The batch for Fiesta Stamina failed freedom from holes test
  3. The batch for Fiesta Big Black failed thickness test
  4. In total 2 batches (LOT Dl1608 & LOT PL1625) have failed with 2 different reasons,
  5. It impacts the brand value along with revenue hit in recall process
  6. In Feb’18, a local distribution company had confirmed that fake condoms are in circulation
  7. Cupid had their earlier recall in 2010 as well

Can someone get the order value to Kenya in recent past, it will help in estimating impact on TO

(Subbu) #1085

do we know by when this new 25 cr order should be delivered and so what is the latest estimate of H2 2019 revenue?

The recall is bad news, would be interesting to see management’s reaction on the next concall.

(mrai74) #1086

The company is yet to get official copy of letter for recall. The impact is less than INR 20 L & was dispatched last year.

(Subbu) #1087

The new indian order will be executed over 1 year, so about 25% of the order by March.

Management have asked for re-testing as they think something could be wrong with testing and are confident of their product. Maybe over the next con call we can get more details.