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The call no doubt reiterated on the addressable opportunity and was the most encouraging of the last few quarters. The promoter once again comes across as one with integrity and vision. However the more efficient market gives higher valuations when things “happen”, not when the management “guides”, regardless of the genuineness of intentions. So I’ll choose to be conservative and watch n watch.
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Decent probability of ~ 90 CR topline for FY19. Century was being discussed for the coming years subject to how things shape up. History tells us that things hardly shape up as anticipated. So it can go either way.
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Nothing of the Balance sheet was talked of (AR, working capital etc), I hope that there’s no bad blood over there, though not good to be complacent.
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The part I appreciated on the B2C side was that they’re looking to push the product thru distributors. Makes commercial sense, coz its less costlier and hopefully more effective in tapping the market.
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A key takeaway for me was that the Indian market is huge and there’s robust demand from the Indian Government. Out of the 12 odd manufacturers, only 4 are certified.
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African order reducing to 22% in lieu of the JV…we’ll need to see how this shapes up. Mr. Garg mentioned that the reduced share was partly due to pricing, partly to wanting to spread the order among multiple vendors, partly due to the push for indigenous production @ Africa thru the JV. I haven’t yet come to terms with the fall from 80% to 22%, but I hope that it happened for the best.
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The CEO search is on, the right fit is critical. Unless the guy/ gal is aboard and really set to sail (will be clear in a few months post joining), the search isn’t effectively complete.
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Lastly, a big salute with both hands to Mr. Garg…the reasons are obvious.
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Today’s a big day for us…JAI HIND…HINDUSTAN ZINDABAD…LONG LIVE INDIA…GOD BLESS INDIA
I feel this is not the correct way to look at it. Last time they got ~80% of the total order (54mn pcs) which was completely imported by SA government and was awarded in one go for 3 years. This time, out of 120 mn pcs, they are planning to procure 40 mn locally and 80 mn through imports. This will be done over 3 years of 40 mn pcs p.a.
Year 1 - All 40 mn pcs to be imported (out of which cupid got ~22% and majority of the rest went to FHC.)
Year 2 - 16 mn to be procured locally and 24 mn through imports.
Year 3 - 24 mn to be procured locally and 16 mn through imports.
If I understand correctly, Mr.Garg mentioned that there is a high probability that entire local order may be secured by Cupid as they are the only company present locally (through JV). If this happens then total order for cupid could be ~ 57 mn pcs (All 40 mn of local and 17 mn (assuming same ratio of 22% of 80 mn of imports)). This translates to ~ 47% of the total order of 120 mn pcs.
This is in line with what Mr. Garg said that SA Government wants to distribute the quantities fairly between 2 big suppliers i.e. Cupid and FHC to mitigate dependency risk.
Key risk here is if they do not get substantial portion of local order next year. However, in this case, the ratio of imports may be higher for Cupid if the true intention of the government is to distribute it almost equally.
Do we know when the Brazilian tender results will be out? I remember Mr Garg answered but I didn’t take it down. Thanks
CEO search is on for last 2 years. See the attached link of my AGM minutes 2 years back… the story is not moving ahead. This is a great small company and remained that way for last 2 years.(and maybe so in future 
) This stock is for people with lot of patience and hope 
. I have given up on it last year as I could see much better opportunities elsewhere in the market
I think Brazil results was mentioned as September.
Finally action on bonus shares…http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/89b15cff-b6b2-4187-b2bc-162fa0d26668.pdf
Think you attached the wrong PDF bro 
74e4de98-7079-4ad8-a280-9b36a93c82f3.pdf (61.1 KB)
Meeting to discuss issue of bonus shares
Is bonus a good idea?
- Berk has never declared a bonus.
- TCS and Infy have declared multiple bonus.
- Bonus helps the promoter when debt is high.
- Bonus boosts the sentiment, but doesn’t change the size of the pie.
Agreed. Bonus is just for sentiment. Equity holders pie remains the same - its just split into more pieces now.
It will increase liquidity and case for MF holding
MFs don’t touch a stock until it reaches a minimum market cap.
It’s pragmatic yes that the liquidity will be increased depending on the ratio of bonus
Cupid gave 1:5 bonus and record date will be within 2 months from now i.e. October 23, 2018
I expect 30% appreciation around record date… so ultimately ex bonus prices will be around 260 … let us hope that we get better Q2 results on top of recent SA orders to give much needed boost to share prices as well
30% appreciation with bonus news?
I had gone through PDF…Detailed numbers much appreciated 
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However could not find the record date.Oct 23 is the mentioned date by which bonus shares will be dispatched. Is it the record date as well
Why would you expect a spike near the record date? Anything special about the bonus?
Probably we will have two events in October, first being bonus & another Q2 result. As we have oredrs in hand, execution remains the key & certainly next 2 months should show some light. Considering both events, I expect certain appreciation, which may vary with other individuals.
Ideally there shouldn’t be any impact on prices (except proportional adjustment) due to bonus but historically we have observed extra movement around bonus / split etc. As per details available in BSE filing, bonus date may be around Q2 result season & I expect some spike around that period.
Wasn’t Cupid a contract condom manufacturer for other brands like Playboy? Do they still do it? If not why is such an opportunity not exploited?
Also, can somebody emphasise on the utility of the bonus issue? EPS hasn’t risen exponentially.
Never heard they were associated with Playboy. Raise this in the AGM if you or anyone from the blog is attending.
Bonus was declared to commemorate investors on the occasion of silver jubilee. The ratio is conservative. What remains to be seen is whether the dividend payout per share is maintained or slashed due to bonus.
The bonus says good about the promoter. Larsen chose a tax effective way of rewarding shareholders thru buyback… they have a debt in excess of 1 lakh crore, so can’t fathom the buyback.
I remember seeing Cupid website before with some other brands of condoms as well. But my memory might not be correct due to information overflow.
But if not, Cupid should look at contract manufacturing to use idle capacity and increase sales and visibility.
Their government orders and skills in making female condoms are already an asset that other brands like Playboy and Trojan can capitalize on, thanks to Cheap Indian Manufacturing.