Cupid Ltd – Helping the world play safe!


(Vilas D'Souza) #864

Did anyone attend the Concall-Q4? If yes, any main points?


(devinmori) #865

Concall-Q4 transcript - https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/e4ebf186-3aed-464e-8354-f763b947b9e4.pdf


(Dinesh Sairam) #866

So refreshing to hear honest and straight-forward answers to minority investors’ questions by a CEO. Hope the replacement is just as good.


(Vilas D'Souza) #867

One of the most hollow guidance. Hope after 3 months they’re not sitting jobless with accumulated inventory, cash drain and no clarity on growth. At this rate, the fair value is 180 or lower


(Dinesh Sairam) #868

And how many guidandes actually work the actual way the CEO describes in any company? The CEO was very clear about questions on accumulated inventory and orders in the pipeline.

I find it funny that you say they may be jobless in a few months and still go on to “estimate” that the company is valued at Rs. 180. How did you arrive at this Value? I’m most interested in understanding the thought process behind this.


(Vilas D'Souza) #869

It’s actually very serious; not amusing as you deem it.

My fair value estimate comprises the balance sheet strength, brand value, visibility and certain other factors. If you have a different valuation, plz elaborate your side as well. I honestly don’t know why to offer a higher valuation.

I’m invested and would like to question my belief all the time.

I welcome other thoughts.


(EthicalWealth) #872

We have already crossed halfway of June. . Is there any update on the most awaited South Africa orders?
Its the most important factor for next 3 years.


(AbhijitMani) #873

I recall that the ceo had indicated the tender results to be out by June end or Start of July.(They have conservatively guided for 30% of 120 million strong tender, around the same magnitude as the previous one in 2015)
Yes,this is a make or break event for the company…


(pavan060610) #874

Management said they can continue with short term orders for next quarter if nothing is finalized before June end.


(Soni jose) #875

Rather than the week Q4 result, guidence during Q4 con call is more disapointing as there is nothing new.
Past few quarters, cupid is weighing too much hope on South Africa, USFDA categorizing female condom to class II so and so. B2B is not picking up as they can’t zeroed in new CEO. While it is commendable looking to new horizons, too much dependence on UN, SA and gov. orders doesn’t look promising.
All these are reflecting on share price.
Repeated orders from UN ensure the quality of product but order is mainly for low margin male condoms.
Hope SA government don’t delay further their health spending, may have some announcement early July.

Dis. Invested at 290


(sagar_amula) #876

Price has fallen to 190 levels does anyone has any update on the deal the company is suppose to get ? I think the company has a long way to go but facing issues in the short term.

Disc - Invested


(Dinesh Sairam) #878

I don’t think we should be discussing why the price of a stock has behaved a certain way on a daily basis. It’s the nature of auction driven markets to fluctuate (Smaller the Market Cap, bigger the scope for fluctuation).

In my opinion, this is only a quotational loss. Cupid is supposed to have a good Q1 as suggested by the management in the Concall. The depreciating rupee could also turn out to be of some help. We’ll just have to wait and see if there is any divergence from the management’s guidance and our expectations.


(Yogesh Sane) #879

14% drop (on top of an already bad year for the stock) with 10 times average volume doesn’t sound like a quotational loss due to fluctuations in auction driven market. I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out be a harbinger of bad news.
I don’t want to sound panicky ( and this price action may in fact turn out be just noise) but often for small companies, news follows price action rather than the other way.


(Dinesh Sairam) #880

And we have no way of knowing. It’s better to wait for news than to speculate. It’s better to track the fundamentals than the price.


(sankalp8242) #881

As per the discussions in the forum and transcript of May’18, company is currently supplying to South African Govt, and expecting for fresh orders in June-July’18. But during my search about the company after today’s fall of over 16%, i came across few tender documents from SA Govt website and observed that Cupid Ltd is not reflecting in their earlier list of 2015-18. 2015 tender was ending in June’18 but now they have extended it till 30th Sep and Cupid Ltd is not in that list. As per the Annual Report of the Company, Cupid Ltd doesnt have any Subsidiary or Joint Venture and hence, i am confused, whether i looking at correct data or Company is misguiding the investors. Please find the below link for more information:

Initial Tender in 2015, that will valid from 01-Jul-2015 to 30-Jun-2018:
http://www.health.gov.za/tender/docs/contracts/HM012015CNDMContractCircular26062015.pdf

Tender extended till 30-Sep-2018:
http://www.health.gov.za/tender/docs/Adendum/2018/HM01-2015CNDM_NT_Amendment01_Contract_Extension.pdf

If someone has more information on the subject, please revert.

Disc: Not invested, may consider if get clarity on few things…


(AbhijitMani) #882

The Management had clearly promised 1st week of July as the tentative date for the results of the huge SA tender. July has come & gone but there has been no news on the same.
So it would have been very surprising if cupid had not fallen to these levels. ( given that most small/nano caps are crashing).
It is interesting to note that in the extension tender you posted, cupid is not mentioned in the list of supplier list where the contract was explicitly not extended.
Also, in the extension list, I also did not see FHC ( Female health company) .
So I think this list might not the complete one.

Disclosure : Entered at 260 levels, will wait for tender results outcome before taking a loss :slight_smile:


(mntolia) #883

A big advisory gave a sell call on that stock. That’s why the stock fell.


(sankalp8242) #884

In the original tender, name of the vendors mentioned for supplying FC, and those names are appearing in Extended notification. I don’t think there will be any new tender order/result before September end…


(Manojlion) #885

If that’s the case ,we should not be worried…Please provide the link to that news


(himanjim) #886

Yes, me too a member of that. Can’t disclose name being a paid service. But I didn’t sell.