Rather than the week Q4 result, guidence during Q4 con call is more disapointing as there is nothing new.
Past few quarters, cupid is weighing too much hope on South Africa, USFDA categorizing female condom to class II so and so. B2B is not picking up as they can’t zeroed in new CEO. While it is commendable looking to new horizons, too much dependence on UN, SA and gov. orders doesn’t look promising.
All these are reflecting on share price.
Repeated orders from UN ensure the quality of product but order is mainly for low margin male condoms.
Hope SA government don’t delay further their health spending, may have some announcement early July.
Price has fallen to 190 levels does anyone has any update on the deal the company is suppose to get ? I think the company has a long way to go but facing issues in the short term.
I don’t think we should be discussing why the price of a stock has behaved a certain way on a daily basis. It’s the nature of auction driven markets to fluctuate (Smaller the Market Cap, bigger the scope for fluctuation).
In my opinion, this is only a quotational loss. Cupid is supposed to have a good Q1 as suggested by the management in the Concall. The depreciating rupee could also turn out to be of some help. We’ll just have to wait and see if there is any divergence from the management’s guidance and our expectations.
14% drop (on top of an already bad year for the stock) with 10 times average volume doesn’t sound like a quotational loss due to fluctuations in auction driven market. I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out be a harbinger of bad news.
I don’t want to sound panicky ( and this price action may in fact turn out be just noise) but often for small companies, news follows price action rather than the other way.
As per the discussions in the forum and transcript of May’18, company is currently supplying to South African Govt, and expecting for fresh orders in June-July’18. But during my search about the company after today’s fall of over 16%, i came across few tender documents from SA Govt website and observed that Cupid Ltd is not reflecting in their earlier list of 2015-18. 2015 tender was ending in June’18 but now they have extended it till 30th Sep and Cupid Ltd is not in that list. As per the Annual Report of the Company, Cupid Ltd doesnt have any Subsidiary or Joint Venture and hence, i am confused, whether i looking at correct data or Company is misguiding the investors. Please find the below link for more information:
The Management had clearly promised 1st week of July as the tentative date for the results of the huge SA tender. July has come & gone but there has been no news on the same.
So it would have been very surprising if cupid had not fallen to these levels. ( given that most small/nano caps are crashing).
It is interesting to note that in the extension tender you posted, cupid is not mentioned in the list of supplier list where the contract was explicitly not extended.
Also, in the extension list, I also did not see FHC ( Female health company) .
So I think this list might not the complete one.
Disclosure : Entered at 260 levels, will wait for tender results outcome before taking a loss
In the original tender, name of the vendors mentioned for supplying FC, and those names are appearing in Extended notification. I don’t think there will be any new tender order/result before September end…
Disclosing the name wont hurt anybody or it will not make you to violate any rules, so please I will insist you to at least give us the name and here at valuepicker we all are matured enough to think first and then act, so no need to worry, rest lies on you, no forcing
Regards
Just to clarify, when the advisory initiate the coverage and when the scrip is still in hold, you should not disclose. But when they give sell call, you are free to do so. Since nobody gonna benefit from the sell call, we have handful of advisory and anyway in a day or two they gonna update their performance page with that info.
You found it amusing when I mentioned that 180 is a fair value. Which fundamental analysis u referring to? Unless we get clarity on the way forward, historical analysis or spreadsheet valuations won’t help.
In my opinion, the value of 190 be revised once Q1 results come out. Again, I would trust the management only 50 PC and assume Margin of safety for the rest.
If, assuming you are correct, “fundamental analysis” doesn’t work, how does anyone arrive at any Value at all? I don’t track the price of stocks on a daily basis. In fact, I found out about Cupid’s drastic drop today only through VP, since I follow this thread.
My calculated Value is still above the CMP of Cupid (Including a MoS). But I’d much rather not share it here, lest I should be ridiculed of overlooking the “clarity on the way forward”.
Actually, both are possible. I’ve personally seen 2-3 20% increases and decreases since I’ve been holding it. On the other hand, Mr. Om Prakash Garg has openly admitted that he’s quitting the firm due to old age and will be selling the stock.
I didn’t state that fundamental analysis doesn’t work. I mentioned that historical analysis doesn’t work coz valuation is about looking into the future mainly. Also most of the time, the timing and the accuracy of info available in public domain doesn’t portray the ground reality.
Mr. Garg retiring anytime was expected not on age grounds but_emphasized text_ given his health and no family successor whether wife or his nephews.
In my opinion, valuation is an art rather than a science. Number crunching is one aspect only.
I hope that my estimate of FV is wrong. I too don’t look at prices daily, but keep an eye on major moves.
I didn’t state that fundamental analysis doesn’t work. I mentioned that historical analysis doesn’t work coz valuation is about looking into the future mainly. Also most of the time, the timing and the accuracy of info available in public domain doesn’t portray the ground reality.
Mr. Garg retiring anytime was expected not on age grounds but_emphasized text_ given his health and no family successor whether wife or his nephews.
In my opinion, valuation is an art rather than a science. Number crunching is one aspect only.
I hope that my estimate of FV is wrong. I too don’t look at prices daily, but keep an eye on major moves.
I spoke to CS (Saurabh Karmase) of Cupid ltd. As per CS, there is no material fact about the rumor floated regarding retirement of Mr. Garg. He is healthy and happy to lead the company until he find able CEO who can lead the cupid in next growth orbit and drive its business for the benefits of the company and its share holders.
Final outcome of the big tender from South Africa is expected by 30th July 2018. Brazilian govt condom tender is expected to publish very soon and Cupid is participating in it as having all necessary approval.
Promoters are not selling their holding. No comments on market reaction on Cupid stock today!
