Cupid Ltd – Helping the world play safe!


(kums17) #815

I also think its cheap, considering it as FMCG. The company is also building new products slowly in health and hygiene section. If the succession plan
( yet to be known) works well, the next Gen can take it to new heights.

I am not invested - Monitoring closely


(manivannan.g) #819

Wondering that how a “pioneer” saw the value in this counter on first day, the same was vanished on the second day and sold off 90% of the holding? For me somehow i felt that they pumped the price, expected retail investors to barge in, but nothing happened (could be kind of BTST). Who knows, after all this is market, anything happen with anyone.

PS: I don’t know about Mangal Keshav, if you know about them or if they are trustworthy that they don’t do this kind of pump and dump, I welcome your opinion.


(Saravanprabu) #821

(AbhijitMani) #822

Great finding this article!
I could gather two things from this article,

  • the SA tender has not been officially opened yet (management had indicated the tender to be opened in month of December)
    So thats good news as per me.
  • reading between the lines a bit here,the article looks more like a tussle between an ‘activist’ with obvious leanings for cupids competitor ‘fhc’ and the government :grinning:

IMHO, cupid looks set to garner a large portion of the new (&larger) tender this time.
Not sure how the wait for tender news will play out with stock though…


(Growth_without Debt) #823

Acceptance and popularity on rising trend


(akhilgulecha) #824

The stock price has been moving 5-10% up and down everyday without any news. What is happening in this stock?

I am waiting for the results as the 3rd quarter is an important one and it would shed some light on the future of the company.


(Manohar T. Patil) #825

http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/reports/cupid-press-release-media-release-10714001.html


(Dinesh Sairam) #826

Cupid had already dropped a lot during the market volatility and now after the results, they’re dumping it further. I guess the day to day investors’ anchor is the last traded price and nothing remotely close to the future cash flows of the company.


(Satya Prakash) #827

I read that Cupid has not spent on awareness of product but getting benefit from FC2 work. In my opinion, the question raised is right.

Disc: Not invested.


(AbhijitMani) #828

Well, I was listening to the management conf call today
This very question was asked to him & he suggested that this article looks biased against cupid & a proper reply wil be done to the author of this article ( He elaborated that cupid is making adequate efforts to educate the users about the product).
On the downside, he cautioned the next quarter to be as bad as the current one ( i.e only around 20 cr sales in Q4 ) :frowning:
The new SA tender is now more than double this time ( 124 million pieces vs 50 last time), so in a nutshell, he guided a flat Q4 & the pickup will be seen only around Q1 onwards.
IMHO, the stock price will remain rangebound around 250-300 till Q1 :frowning_face:
He also acknowledged that the B2C initiative is more cost heavy than he had expected.

However, some things which gave hope were
: The hand sanitizer product is ready for production, only distributor negotiations are ongoing, following which the sales will start soon.
: 20% capacity ramping is in full swing . Q1 will see the full benefits of this
: Good probability of the USFDA reclassifying FC as class 2, so less stringent for the US market going ahead

So the key event to watch out for will be the SA tender results in march.
Till then, cupid will be in doldrums :slight_smile:


(Hardik) #829

Nice summary and I agree that performance for Q4 will be muted. In fact Q1FY19 may also not show any significant improvement except news inflow in terms of tender wins in this quarter.

I will add few more points here:

  1. Present 20% capacity expansion (Rs.7 cr. Capex) being carried out, will lead to increase in sales by Rs.10-12 Cr. if the entire capacity is used for Male Condoms and it will be Rs.40-50 Cr. if used entirely for FC.

Out of this 120 mn, approx. 80 mn will be exports order and balance 40 mn will be procured by the govt from local manufacturing facility. Cupid expects to get 25-30 mn of exports order and 50% of local order i.e. total of around 45 mn. approx. This should translate to sales of approx. Rs.90 cr over 3 years. The tender results will be out in Apr. 2018 and deliveries will be effected from July 2018 onwards.

  1. B2C has not picked up as planned. They had a target of around Rs.2 Cr. but could do only Rs.55 Lacs. Brand promotion is slow mainly due to 2 new players entering with high advertising budget.

This has reduced the timeline and cost for USFDA approval from 2 years and 2 million USD to 9 months and less than 1 million USD. This is significant.

  1. They have not been able to hire a CEO, efforts are still on. Mr. Garg acknowledged that if there is right offer on the table then he is open to selling out considering his age.

(Krishna Chaitanya) #830

Hi AbhijiMani, thank you for the analysis.


(Kumar Saurabh) #831

Guys, thanks for capturing concall highlights. One point ,the business development officer hired has left. Reinforced , setting a b2c business is not that easy. Disc : sold 40 percent in recent rise and 40 percent today. Hold very small tracking position now


(vivekp) #832

Few significant opportunities in coming quarters :slight_smile:

  1. Female condom order from brazil ;expected after South Africa order .
  2. Started exporting to CIS & good demand opportunity there .
  3. Requirements double by govt of India .
    4.Coming out with flavoured condoms will have better margins .
  4. higher Capacity utilisation of new capex .
  5. Focusing on using a established pan india sales force rather than building one of its own .
  6. US _ FDA compliance expected in next 6-9 months .

Looks bettter go to market strategy to me than establishing own channel & when 2 aggressive players are burning too much cash .better to focus on digital & burn less on brand right now .Instead focus on expanding export market & third party contracts .


(AbhijitMani) #833

Even this point was raised in the conf call.
Mr Garg mentioned that the BDO has left for personal reasons (atleast officially :wink: )
He also said that with the distributor approach, the impact of his absence will not be much going ahead.
[Disc: Partially exited my cupid shares ( reduced by half) as I feel waiting for Q1 ( or Q2) sales pickup is too long , basically opportunity cost. I am still hopeful for cupid doing well , so still keeping some !]


#834

I really liked this company. However, unless there is a clear succession plan, I don’t expect much to change. Completely exited after the current quarter results.


(vivekp) #835

Is anyone on the platform done any research on how significant the US-FDA compliance could be for Cupid ? What sort of opportunity it opens up ?


(pranav13) #836

hey, just wondering when was the conf call? i went on net i couldnt find any details.


(Subbu) #837

The conference call is on the BSE corporate announcement page under CUPID. It comes along with the latest financial results pdf.

Thanks Abhijit and Hardik. Q4 has always been quiet for Cupid so I agree that focus is on the South AFrica order. I believe that since Cupid is more competitive price wise they will get a larger share of the S.A order this time.

Also they announcement mentioned an order from an indian male condom company. Do we have any details on that?

Personally I think this company is on the cusp of change and has a good 3 - 4 years ahead. Enjoy the ride!


(Ranjan K) #838

The order from Indian Pharma Company is just Rs. 2 crore order, however, has potential of repeat orders up to Rs. 15 crore by the end of FY19. Problem is low revenue visibility and no succession plan…they have only 71 crores of orders in hand right now which hardly gives one year of visibility at the current run rate…the expectation is SA order would be bulk and would give enough visibility…key triggers could be 1. Succession Plan/ Buy out by a large pharma company 2. Large SA order 3. B2C traction…there was a huge volume and price breakout on 11th Jan which took the price to Rs. 423…seems somebody in the know has put huge sums…any potential news of buy out could re-rate significantly…