Cupid Ltd – Helping the world play safe!


(Moe) #730

Agree to most of these points. Even the Q1 2018 concall transcript attached (page 6) suggests CEO still not identified. However, spouse Veena Garg is a Director and promotor shareholder. Conference call Transcript dated 24 July 2017.pdf (1.1 MB)
Plus the brother of OmPrakash Garg, Sureshchand Garg is also a promotor shareholder. So business continuity should not be too risky in the short to medium term.

This could be a potential takeover target for a multi-national in personal products business. This would mitigate marketing costs related to increase in B2C. Any views ?


(Kumar Saurabh) #731

Key notes from AR Cupid AR Notes 201617.pdf (1.1 MB)
2017


#732

Dear VP friends,

I am attaching my latest Cupid valuation analysis for your reference. Please let me know if you have any feedback or questions.

Regards,

CupidAugust2017.xlsx (156.2 KB)


(Hardik) #733

Anyone planning to attend AGM on Thursday 7th September 2017, at Panchavati Motels, Pune – Nashik Highway, Sinnar, Nashik, Maharashtra - 422103 at 12.00 noon?


(MeetSugat) #734

Have you made this ?


(Kumar Saurabh) #735

Yes, hope , no factual errors.


(v31) #736

Has anyone attended the AGM?


(Gorthi) #737

I just read Cupid AR ( Can’t attach due to some technical prob)…everything looks good. One thing is Basant Maheshwari sold off entire his stake ( including pooja Maheshwari)


(Mridul) #738

Few important points from the Q1 FY18 concall -

  1. QIP is not happening (at least in near future). Will use internal accruals to fund any requirement.

  2. Guidance for this year is around 103 cr revenue with EBIDTA margins of 36%+.

  3. B2C foray - Future is in B2C. Super-stockists have been appointed. Efforts are on. Vision for 3 years - 20% from B2C.

  4. Capacity Utilization -
    Male - 80%
    Female - 99

  5. Product Mix - 50/50 ±10%

  6. Plans to double the FC capacity (convert existing MC capacity to FC capacity). Process in on. Takes about 2 months. 10-15 lac expense only.

  7. Marketing costs for B2C - 2 cr in FY18, 3 cr in FY19

  8. Emphasis is on new products like lubricant, wipes, ultrasound gel, etc.

  9. South Africa order should come in December. 50% more probably. Last time Cupid got 65 cr out of 105 cr order. This time, if the order is around 150 cr, Cupid expects to get around 25-50%. So, anywhere between 40-75 cr.

  10. CEO in next 3 months.

  11. Order book as of Jun 30 is 70 cr. Some orders expected (apart from South Africa order) to the tune of 33 cr. So 103 cr as of now. Plan to execute around 19+84 cr this year. 19 cr already executed in q1. More orders expected in q2.

  12. Started online sales and are doing well. Minuscule amount though.

  13. USFDA - 12/15 months away. 12/15 cr expense.

  14. Latex pricing/ RM - RM pricing in q1 was high, in q2 would be back to normal 36%.

  15. New venture in South Africa with 49% stake. Things yet to formalize. South African government is wanting manufacturers like Cupid to set up plants in South Africa for a guaranteed off-take for 5 years, cheap loans, grants, royalty, etc. In relation to aforementioned point 9, in next 24 months, all this order will have to be shifted to SA facility probably. So, there, Cupid will have 49% stake only so overall profits from these orders will decline imho.

  16. Client concentration - 50% order from Gov of SA.

  17. On continuity and sustenance of these tenders - No guarantee. Depends on aid from developed nations. though, the flow is increasing of late.

  18. HLL is the only competitor in India. Cupid has 90% market share.

  19. Manufacturing of wipes for premature ejaculation in the existing plant. Details being worked out on some US tie-up. Huge market. B2C foray.

  20. Incremental capacity in China. MC yes, FC not worried at all. Only one player is approved, and that too is very small. Cost is high for them.

My sense is that they are going very well. They have guided for an incremental growth of 15-20% while preserving their margins. Investors feel uncomfortable due to lack of visibility beyond 3-4 qtrs along with the nature of order (funded), but the mgmt is quite confident of getting repeat orders (few large ones in pipeline), SA foray with new plant setup, USFDA foray, B2C foray (break-even in 2-3 years), maintaining dividend yield, not going for QIP. Regarding ease of use of FC along with its price, well, one cannot compare it with MC. But seeing the growth 14.5% in FC, usage is there and is increasing. At 14 times trailing, this looks like a safe investment with the kind of return ratios it has.

I am happy to see them venturing into jelly, wipes etc which are real high margin products. They started lubricant jelly a year back, and they are already doing around 7 cr sales on that front. Guided for 10 cr this year. Not mean feat i would say.


(rupaniamit) #739

Mridul - Thank you for your great work in summarizing conf call notes!

Do you know why promoter holding has come down from 48.46% to 44.87?

Sorry if this question has been already discussed previously.

Thank you.


(Kumar Saurabh) #740

Promoters wanted to use money for some personal purpose, I think buying a house not sure. However, thry confirmed that it is one off trsnssction .


(AbhijitMani) #741

Nice summary in a nutshell indeed.
Till now, only around 19 crs has been done.
Assuming the lower end of the guidance (15% YoY sales growth), ~96 crores, the remaining three quarters will have to average atleast 25-26 crores , which looks quite achievable to me.
The management has been quite transparent & usually under-promises but has historically over-delivered.
I think a re-rating to much PE levels will happen once the B2C sales start to kick in.
As of now, there are still doubts on whether the management can pull it off (i.e in the new B2C ventures).


(Ankit Kohli) #742

Hi everyone,

Does any one have more color on the news below? Which director is being referred to here and what is the reason for the disqualification? The release refers to a letter received from NSE on Sept 27, but I am unable to trace it on the NSE website.

If any member has more background here, then please do share. Thank you.

Cupid Limited has informed BSE regarding Disqualification of Director under section 164(2) of the Companies Act, 2013.
http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/40605d14-c5e2-4cf4-ba8f-706332c633b0.pdf


(MeetSugat) #743

Section 164(2) of the new Companies Act, 2013 has made it mandatory to file both, annual accounts and annual return and no person who is or has been a director of such a company shall be eligible to be re-appointed as a director of that company or be appointed in any other company


(MeetSugat) #744

(MeetSugat) #745


(MeetSugat) #746

These 3 have been appointed. Which can be disqualified ?


(Growth_without Debt) #747

As per Cupid management, Cupid is actively looking for USFDA approval of female condoms. While looking at US FDA approval process, it is not difficult to clear and clearance time is not longer as compare to pharma product approval. https://www.fda.gov/downloads/MedicalDevices/NewsEvents/.../UCM359084.pdf
In this presentation Cupid Ltd name is also mentioned !!!
As Cupid having following Key Accreditation, it may not difficult to get US FDA approval:
WHO GMP
ISO 9001:2008
ISO 13485:2003
CE 0434 (Male and Female condoms)
SABS Approval 25841 (Female condoms)
WHO/UNFPA Prequalified (Male & Female Condoms)


(Growth_without Debt) #748

If Cupid get US FDA approval, it will get direct entry for USAID tender participation.

More focus on quality condoms in government tenders. Hence, approved supplier having benefits against poor quality low cost suppliers https://www.usaid.gov/vietnam/program-updates/aug-2017-usaid-supported-new-policy-improves-condom-quality


(mntolia) #749

How long will the FDA approval take?