Disclosure: Invested
Any idea why there is heavy selling in this counter?
I think the market has not liked the commentary on the conference call on June results,
it seems company only has orders for Rs 56 Cr. for 2 quarters only and still need to get the orders after that,
also the fact that European economies are tightening the funding for African countries is another reason.
Rajiv any comments from your side,
looks stock is going back to normal PE multiples from high growth multiples applicable last year
The Cupid story continues to unfold on expected lines. The Co. should grow its top line at about 25% & PAT about 30-35% in 16-17. The volatility in the stock price is par for course in Cupid’s case. It has seen big corrections quite a few times in the past as well. It’s human nature to find justification for the way the stock price moves - both up or down.
It will be interesting to see what the Co. does post Q2 results. With the Div distribution tax & now taxation on Div recd. in excess of 10 lacs also applicable, there is a real possibility of many co.'s opting for a share buy back in lieu of dividend, as it entails lesser payouts by way of taxes. Cupid is sitting on a decent pile of cash.
6 Likes
These are the orders in hand at this point of time. Company gets continuous orders which are immediately executable . This will increase the revenue further by the end of the year. This is how they have exceeded the expectations last year. also.
Stock was stable on results day and after conference call also. May be some big fish want to sell the stock and LC is triggering because circuit limit is mere 2%.
Cupid renewed long term contract with UNFPA for male condoms for 3 years
Source:http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/ann.aspx?scrip=530843&dur=A&expandable=3
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Gathered from unconfirmed but a reliable source that NSE listing should come through in August. Keeping fingers crossed!!
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Few observation about the company:
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Its a small base company, which is operating in oligopoly industry having huge scalability. Business model is excellent as it can generate sustainable ROE of more than 40%. Company has a MOAT due to cost advantage.
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Fundamental Triggers for the Company playing out the way it should be for a good company- Continuous order flow, strong order book. Strong R&D Developments in terms of FC2 and FC3 Design.
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Corporate Governance of the company looks to be strong and they have proved the same during BSE blunder.
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Management is resolving queries of all the investors and has been very proactive through Conference call/ TV interview etc. However, i believe this has affected the stock price performance as Mr Garg is always conservative in his approach.
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Company has confirmed orderbook of 57 cr for rest of FY17 as compared to 27 cr orderbook of last time (FY16) so FY17 outlook looks very bright with the expected growth of more than 25%(15% growth would come through confirmed orderbook).
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The Stock is trading at 15-16x FY16E EPS.
Potential Rerating trigger for the company:
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Company had around 10cr cash at the end of FY16 and expecting cash generation is ~20cr for FY17. Planned capex for FY17 is 3-4 cr, so we can expect cumulative dividend of atleast 15 cr in FY16 (5% Dividend Yield) . Further, as company has assets light model, it has potential to provide 5% dividend yield going forward as well. Any Announcement for the special dividend would trigger rerating.
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Many MFs wants to buy stake in Cupid and are looking for increase in liquidity before taking any position in the stock. Any change in the BSE circuit filter or News of NSE listing would trigger rerating of the company.
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FC2 Approval and any major order from Zimbabwe/Euthopia could trigger rerating.
5 Likes
Friend sustainable means ? For how long period 40 is not possible ?
Any link please, for European countries stop or lowered funding to Africa ?
Please read the last question on page 17 of the latest results transcript, where Mr. Garg has mentioned that number of European countries have cut back their donations
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where can I get copy of latest results concall transcript? I could not see one on the company website.
Bse website, search company then in news section
I had it open when you asked for it! 
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Thanks a bunch! This is great!
Cupid to Consider first Interim Dividend on 1st August. Remember they have 15cr cash at the end of 1QFY17 (5% of current market cap)
http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=d7fd5cd0-32ef-46a6-85fc-eaf3ca0b6f78
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21 crs if I read concall transcript correctly
While i’m positive on the company the fall is relentless. Makes me think if the market knows something we don’t?
The NSE listing, the divindends doled out etc… all are insignificant if there are no orders to execute. And that is what in my humble opinion is spooking the markets.
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Cupid released a notice that they have renewed the contract with UNFPA but strangely no estimation on the order size. Does anyone know a ball park estimate of what it could potentially be? This will be helpful to assuage fears on the order front
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It also doesn’t look like any MF’s are taking position here as the heavy selling is not being absorbed.
Disclosure: Invested in Cupid with a 25% allocation of my portfolio size but now turning cautious at the relentless fall.
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25% isn’t it too much ?