can you elaborate a little more on exit strategy with any example . thanks @maheshwari_a_its
Hey
But what if its running on its peak ?
Hi @Jitenp, love your posts. You are an expert in cyclical stories. Thanks for all your inputs and insights.
How do you decide if current earnings are peak or there is further upside?
1 Like
As I said earlier, it does require one to understand the sector. This type of investing does require lots and lots of reading. Also, due to a good network, I do take help of sector experts to understand more. A collaborative effort helps a lot.
4 Likes
How abt buying into SAIL now??momentum seems intact
Guys…I would like to draw your attention to copper prices in India…they seem to be in an uptrend but that is not yet getting reflected in the prices of copper stocks…
I am posting the quarterly chart of Copper 1 contract on MCX…its now @ 450 and appears to be in an uptrend. In the next few quarters…may be in a year or 18 months…or even two years, this can go upto 650+…Insofar as commodity prices are concerned, its a big jump. Any price rise adds directly to the bottom line of copper producers…Hind Copper / VEDL. Just have a look at the chart.
It is axiomatic in cyclical investing that even a moderate rise in commodity prices cause an exponential rise in prices of commodity producing stocks. Looks like we are in the initial stages of the turnaround in copper cycle. Those who get on early in the cycle, reap the most benefits. Valuepickr guidelines discourage me from posting price targets for Hind Copper…it is sufficient to say that in case the turnaround in copper cycle does happen as I anticipate, those investing in Hind Copper will have a lot of reason to smile.
Discl…Holding Hind Copper
2 Likes
Also pl refer to my note dated jan 2017…Contrarian investing using technical analysis
wherein I pointed out the signs of cyclical turnaround in steel sector …more particularly SAIL @ 49…it now appears that there is indeed a turnaround in steel cycle.
Even Pipemakers too have done well…man industries @45…Jindal saw @55…both have risen by more than 100%Contrarian investing using technical analysis
Cyclical investing at the bottom of downcycle is mostly a game of technical analysis…or maybe you need to be as perceptive as Jiten parmar:
1 Like
I am invested in hind copper. Copper prices have some runway further and I have a feeling that it may touch 2012 high though I could be wrong. Yesterday we have seen the UC yday in HindCopper. It may continue its journey even further. This EV push will bring huge demand for Cobalt, Nickle and Copper. Typically one Vehicle would need cobalt from 5 kgs to 15kgs. Hind Copper is a long term bet on copper and Nickle. Hind Copper has pricing power on copper and Nickle at the moment which could improve its margins even further.
Disc: Holding HindCopper and Largest cobalt producer in developed world (Australia) Ardea Resources in ASX.
4 Likes
If you wish to check what are the mineral resources and who are the miners of a particular mineral in India etc, the Indian Minerals Year Book that Indian Bureau of Mines brings out is a good source. For example: Look up this link - http://ibm.nic.in/index.php?c=pages&m=index&id=883
The 2016 Version is still being updated. So, you may want to check the earlier editions. The changes in these details won’t be too radical. For the prices etc, you will, of course, have to look elsewhere. Even IBM has some price data, but that is not very reliable.
1 Like
#HindCopper and Copper Investment Thesis
- Capacity expansion - 3x to 5x times
- Electric Vehicle
*Renewables
*Consumer Electronics
*Copper coefficient for solar capacity is 2½ times the one for coal capacity. Coal generation facilities contain about 2kgs of copper per KW; solar requires about 5kgs
Stay invested!
4 Likes
i think one can start accumulating Hindustan copper from these levels and as the price falls to 80 - 70 more can be added.
It will be fruitful in next 3 - 5 years…
Just one thing i cant understand is that Book Value is around Rs. 15 and P/E is over 100…
Being a PSU how come such a high P/E possible ???
Seniors comment please.
There will be a supply deficit in 2017 and 2018. All this talk about smart cities, EV, Infra will not be achievable if HindCopper does not invest in Capacity expansion. Infact Govt is looking to auction copper mines in next 2 years to spur supply situation.
Hind Copper will not look for Expansion if results on Nov 10 will not be good. Gut feel could be wrong.
#ElectricCar production could boost global #copper #demand by 50% in the next 18 yrs, according to BHP
which other companies can benefit from copper upcycle
2 Likes
PBT gone up 3.7 times yoy. Wow results thanks to boom in commodity prices. Bottom line has swelled due to increasing copper prices. Revenue is decent too.
#HindCopper Results
Revenue up 26.4% qoq
Revenue up 153.5% yoy
PAT increase 200% qoq
PAT increase 274% yoy
EPS increased 1.8 times qoq
EPS increased 3.21 times yoy 
Disc: core holding
3 Likes
There’s a lot of interest in copper among hedge funds and traders with some even heralding the golden age of copper
https://www.ft.com/content/9dea89fc-ba39-11e7-9bfb-4a9c83ffa852
The important question however is about valuation. Is there a way to find out the actual valuation of HInd Copper based on copper prices or this simply a momentum play ? Another problem with the management is transparency. Why don’t they conduct conf calls ? Even their annual report is nothing much to look at . Any thoughts ?
Disclosure : Invested.
1 Like
Should we look at starting a separate thread for HIndustan Copper given it’s long term prospects ?