Commodity and Cyclical Plays

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Hello Jiten Bhai.which are cyclical industries where we can start hunting for value.are you tracking steel and basmati industry.

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Basmati is in down cycle. So must be closely watched. One might get good buys.

Steel is not looking that good. Steel Mining might be interesting.

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If I may ask, how do you see Aluminium and Copper? Enhanced demand due to EV expected to drive demand. Are these metals in a down cycle?

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yes. these look to be in downcycle.

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Could you pls share your thoughts on ferro chrome companies…
They seem to have corrected a lot and fe chrome prices are making multi year lows…

Should one start taking entry now in ferro chrome companies?

Thanks.

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China Crude Steel Production outlook

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@jitenp Sir ur comments on BOPP films. Most companies in this sector have reported gud nos for 2 consecutive qtrs now. Seems the prices have started moving up

Yes. That’s true. Margins have improved as CU increased. One worry, could be growth slowing down due to economic downturn.

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@jitenp , what’s your view on tyre stocks and auto ancillary stocks ? Thanks in advance

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Investing in cyclical industries.

https://mailchi.mp/verdadcap/contrarian-investing-in-commodity-cyclicals

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@jitenp Given that Hind Copper and Nalco being very close to multiyear low, what strategy would you suggest to adopt to accumulate them

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For steel, you mean valuations are still not lucrative or steel industry would take years to come back with good results?

Nickel futures up 4% Mix of suplly disruption, anticipated ev damand than steel demand.

Is it a good time to enter commercial vehicles cycle ?
Given CV sales have dropped a lot this year… and given huge infra spends lined up by govt I expect CV demand to pick up… @jitenp , other members pls advice…

Which would be good stocks in this ? Ashok Leyland, Jamna Auto on my list already…

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News share

I would definitely wait more. Efficiencies due to GST (more km/day than before), digitization and also norms of 20% overloading has tilted balance towards supply side. It’s going to take a while for this supply to get absorbed.

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Lot of chemicals are linked to crude. so prices can fall due to fall in crude. Alongwith product prices, one should also always track raw material prices and the spread.

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