Commodity and Cyclical Plays


(paresh.sarjani1) #862

Hi @jitenp

There were lot of reports n articles on cement price hike.

But today CNBC was showing some report which says there is a price roll back and high supplies

Any clear idea what exactly is ground situation?


(Jiten Parmar) #863

Not tracking that sector. So cannot comment. One thing which always worries about is the long term of this sector. There is a lot of disruption.


(Jiten Parmar) #864

In one of the articles recently, I had mentioned that sustainability of south cement sector needs to be watched. There can be some reversals. But situation is still better than before. What I am saying, is worst might be over.


(Tejas83) #865

Hi @jitenp,

I am trying to understand the copper sector cycle and what stage it is in right now. What are your thoughts on the copper cycle (if you have been following it)? Please share some ideas on how you determine the phase it is in.

I tried to analyze Hindustan Copper. Based on OPM trend (increasing) and PE (decreasing), i think that it may not be a good time to buy. Please correct my understanding.

Thanks!


(pennywise) #866

In case it helps :

  1. Average LME price in Feb 2019 was US$ 6278/MT as compared to US$ 5932 in January 2019. Average price for the whole of 2017-2018 was US$ 6444.

  2. Copper stocks held at LME, COMEX and SHFE declined 1% at the end of january.

  3. Hindustan Copper in Feb 2019 produced only 1400MT of copper cathode even though their capacity is 49,500 MTPA or appx 4125 MT per month. Similarly HINDALCO produced only 25115 MT in february even though they have an annual capacity of 500,000 MTPA or appx 41666 MT per month.