Commodity and Cyclical Plays


(Jiten Parmar) #842

Cannot give suggestions on stocks names now. Due to regulatory reasons.


(Susindar) #843

Hi @jitenp
What is your view on the iron ore sector over the next two years given Vale disruption in Brazil (NMDC in particular is in multi year lows)?


(Jiten Parmar) #844

I’m optimistic as of now. Though, I would like it to stabilize and not run away. If it hold 70$, one can continue to be positive.


(jajushobhit) #845

What about iron ore pellets…the prices have remained steady in global markets. In fact, the prices have gone up by ~10-15% in the last two months. What do you make of it from a 2-3 year perspective. Can the average realizations continue to be in a range of 100$ per tonne.

Regards
SJ


(Jiten Parmar) #846

Pellet prices have also gone up. But, I am not taking a very long term view as of now. If pellet price sustains 6500, then it will be good. Situation can change and is very dynamic. Chinese demand and supply needs to be monitored closely.


(Jiten Parmar) #847

As I had mentioned in last few months, cement sector looks interesting. Have created a basket there. Do have a 2-3 year view on that. News on cement price rises have started coming. It’s possible that worst is over in Q3 and there should be incremental improvement going forward.


(psyaap) #848

Iron ore prices really heating up because of Vale disruption. Is NMDC worth looking at from a short-term perspective (1yr)?

“However experts believe Vale will be able to bring back almost all of its lost production by early 2020.”

http://en.ce.cn/main/latest/201902/19/t20190219_31510922.shtml


(Jiten Parmar) #849

Oct 2018 view.


(Amit) #850

(SOHAN) #851

Hello jiten bhai.i was looking at roes and roces of small cement companies like ncl anjaniiportland Deccan etc they are superior to big players.are you following this sector?


(Jiten Parmar) #852

Yes. I follow this sector and am invested in the sector as mentioned above.


(Umang Joshi) #853

Paper stocks are showing good strength these days


(Jiten Parmar) #854

An article on cement sector.


(Saji John) #855

Another article on cement price hike…https://www.moneylife.in/article/cement-prices-increased-by-up-to-rs77-per-bag-across-the-country/56524.html


(Jayatu) #856

Looking at the demand supply scenario… where in most of the part in the country supply is still higher than the demand…consistant new capacity addition by existing player …sustainability of this hike or enhance commission to distributors to increase market share …are factors need to be watch out in coming months …


(Jiten Parmar) #857

On an industry level, supply addition is not higher than demand growth. So, you will see capacity utilizations improve.


(Manish Maheshwari) #858

image

  • JK Lakshmi cement AR on current capacity and addition of new capacity.

(Divyanshu Bagga) #859

Hope that the cement price rise is not due to cartelisation as that won’t be sustainable.


(Growth_without Debt) #860

Good report on India cement sector


#861

@jitenp
Do you think the elections will be a good time to bet on News channel stocks and Top Breweries & Distilleries?
Would the bet be worth playing or leaving? How does one decide in situations like this?

I would appreciate your thoughts on this approach. I am new to playing such bets and to the approach of cyclicals. Started this approach since last year with AC stocks for a sure shot 10% gain.

Thanks in advance!