Commodity and Cyclical Plays


(yourraj) #622

Hi dear @hitesh Bhai has very clearly defined the strategy regarding cement cycle play @ CYCLICALS-- When and Where to Bet?
Mostly southern Indian has lots of cement industry north eastern side there are less geographic locations plays a great role that’s why Amrit culcutta based small company is starting its operation in north east side even Shree cement has started building capacity focusing on Northeast India . Latest mergers among cements industries will give them pricing power in their territory of operations. In Feb there were news that ACC will merge with Ambuja but that is called off … at last One must closely watch the sectoral news … and new infrastructure schemes will create a huge opportunity… residential and commercial cements has different curing time e.g. They are of high strength but low marginal some companies has started giving end to end solution they are providing redimixs which is higher value margin product …


(aerofire) #623

@jitenp Congrats Jiten on featuring in ET .


Your Cyclical know how and thoughts imparted are most valuable.


(narenarora) #624

@jitenp

Both the Integrated ferro chrome players are facing issues including Fines for excess mining, Agitation, etc.

The prices have corrected significantly. In your view is it worth taking position at these levels or better to wait for clarity.

regards
Disc: Not invested yet.


(Jiten Parmar) #625

I think lot of negatives are built into the price.


(Mehnazfatima) #626

Another commodity upcycle being played out

https://forum.valuepickr.com/t/sterlite-technologies-digital-india-play/3473/115a


(Brajesh Agrawal) #627

@jitenp

Number wise FerroChrome companies look very attractive, but I want to know about its supply side information, as you have mentioned in your interviews that, supply side tracking is very important in commodities. What all sources can I use to find the supply side information. What will be the triggers for FeCr upmove.
As I see currently pressure is from both the sides, cost wise coke and electricity, and international prices of FeCr were low, though the benchmark price have improved for this quarter.

This question is specifically for FerroChromes and commodity in general for educational purpose.

Disclosure: Small positions in two FerroChrome companies


(learning) #628

is maithan alloy one of them?


(adi16in) #629

http://www.indsil.com/

Indsil Hydro has Ferro Allyos.


(Raj A A) #630

JSPL Records Domestic Steel Production of 1.23 Million Tonnes in Q1 FY2019
Achieves 46% y-o-y growth in Steel Sales and 36% y-o-y growth in Steel Production
Highest Ever First Quarter Domestic Steel Production
Highest Ever Monthly Pellet Production at JSPL’s 9 MTPA Pellet Plant at Barbil


(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #631

A question to @jitenp and all other cyclical veterans here.

Ferrochrome prices are in a cyclical uptrend (chart attached) and moreover, discount in long term contacts over European Benchmark Ferrochrome price has settled at 10-15% over 30-35% earlier (Source:MetalBulletin.com).

FeCr%20price

Globally Ferrochrome plays have already crossed their October 2017 highs. Rupee has depreciated and South African Rand has appreciated which may be considered positive for these export oriented plays. Local unrest was also in just one player and not an industry issue.

Comparison

So, the million dollar question is what is the reason for this divergence? What does the market know and pricing it in that I don’t know or can’t understand?


(Akshay Kumar) #632

(khushi) #633

Which companies will benefit from this move in next 2/3 years.


(Amit) #635

(Jiten Parmar) #636

Very good Q1 results by Prakash Ind


(Amit) #637

Stock is still correcting. Corp governance issue biting.

Disc: holding prakash ind


(Jiten Parmar) #638

Promoter converts warrants at 210. I think that’s a big positive.


(Amit) #639

I believe that if a promoter wants to infuse money into the company, then he/she should go ahead and straight away infuse the money by subscribing to additional shares at the prevailing price on the day. I do not appreciate the structured arrangements like stock warrants.

It could be a positive sign that promoter knows something big is coming. But why on earth you buy warrants at such a premium rather than let it expire. To me promoter is playing a speculating game to prop up the share price. Let me know if otherwise.


(axiskumar) #640

I echo…with aammiitt2…Jiten…any pointers from you on this…


(Raj A A) #642

Additional Pledging of shares are reported in Prakash Ind, JSPL. Margin Call?


(Amit) #643

Hindustan Copper at throwaway valuations
Vedanta

An opportunity of a decade…What more I say here…

Disc: Invested in both, biased. Please conduct your due diligence.