Commodity and Cyclical Plays

JSPL Records Domestic Steel Production of 1.23 Million Tonnes in Q1 FY2019
Achieves 46% y-o-y growth in Steel Sales and 36% y-o-y growth in Steel Production
Highest Ever First Quarter Domestic Steel Production
Highest Ever Monthly Pellet Production at JSPL’s 9 MTPA Pellet Plant at Barbil

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A question to @jitenp and all other cyclical veterans here.

Ferrochrome prices are in a cyclical uptrend (chart attached) and moreover, discount in long term contacts over European Benchmark Ferrochrome price has settled at 10-15% over 30-35% earlier (Source:MetalBulletin.com).

FeCr%20price

Globally Ferrochrome plays have already crossed their October 2017 highs. Rupee has depreciated and South African Rand has appreciated which may be considered positive for these export oriented plays. Local unrest was also in just one player and not an industry issue.

Comparison

So, the million dollar question is what is the reason for this divergence? What does the market know and pricing it in that I don’t know or can’t understand?

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Which companies will benefit from this move in next 2/3 years.

Stock is still correcting. Corp governance issue biting.

Disc: holding prakash ind

I believe that if a promoter wants to infuse money into the company, then he/she should go ahead and straight away infuse the money by subscribing to additional shares at the prevailing price on the day. I do not appreciate the structured arrangements like stock warrants.

It could be a positive sign that promoter knows something big is coming. But why on earth you buy warrants at such a premium rather than let it expire. To me promoter is playing a speculating game to prop up the share price. Let me know if otherwise.

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I echo…with aammiitt2…Jiten…any pointers from you on this…

Additional Pledging of shares are reported in Prakash Ind, JSPL. Margin Call?

Hindustan Copper at throwaway valuations
Vedanta

An opportunity of a decade…What more I say here…

Disc: Invested in both, biased. Please conduct your due diligence.

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Anyone here tracking the chlor-alkali cycle?

HINDCOPPER is trading at 63 PE, could you pls help me to understand how you arrived at throwaway valuations.

Earning has been really disappointing in the past…

Price has reached the floor…40-50 range is bottom…Dont judge commodities investment as high pe…high pe is actually a sign that it has bottomed…low pe is a sign that earnings have peaked…copper supply long term till 2028 looking poor…demandwill only grow from here…new mines not coming…existing coppee grades falling…hind copper is a monopoly in india…

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Hi the steel story seems to be continuing and the steel prices are also presently supporting with overall pick u in production and demand. Results expected are good but then why the stock prices are turning down. the nifty metal has corrected a lot. Tata steel touching 52w low JSPL, JSW steel all down. What’s going on actually. Is it trade wars?

Steel market is beginning to correct due to lack of demand. Already Unofficially steel companies are offering around Rs 1500/MT over list prices and it is expected that there would be correction of around Rs 3000/MT by the end of this month.

When you say above list price what does that mean is that discount ?

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I mean to say List Price -Rs 1500 are current rates and prices are expected to correct by total Rs 3000/MT by end of this month.

Steel prices see seasonal downturn during the rainy season while I agree that the fall have been larger this season compared with the last year. This is also because the rise was much sharper over the last 12 months. China steel prices remain strong and no threat to India steel prices as of now. In fact I consider Russian/CIS steel prices a bigger threat to Indian steel prices but nothing serious so far.

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Chinese Yuan vs Indian Rupee

  • INR weakened against Yuan by 14% over past 1 year (bottom May 18)
  • Exports (metals, chemical, yarn) to witness upside
  • Imports (electrical equipment, fertiliser, antibiotics, chemical) to see downside
    @twitter

Hi but china is increasing their production and its in news that from this year onwards their will be mill to mill restrictions according to pollution level and not a blanket one. The prices domestically are 25% approx down from high since in winter the demand is less. If china’s prod increases what will the impact on india ?