Price increases have happened recently. Probably in line with crude. No idea why Jindal Poly went up so much. Crude has cooled off a bit, so price rise may not be there in near term, in fact may come down in line with crude.
As far as I can see, nothing much has changed. I continue to remain cautiously optimistic on the sector in medium term.
Any views on tea sector…supposed to see a cyclical turnaround on his year onwards…jayshree tea and mcleod russel are showing sings of technical bottom formation…
Ferro alloys sectoral turnaround is on the cards . All are near to 52 week highs or have breached in last 2 weeks . Invested in balasore alloys , imfa and rohit . Last week saw 2 . 10% upper circuits.
Can you please also say something about another good tea company i.e. United Nilgiri Tea Estates? What are the charts telling?
I missed investing in this sector. For me, it’s too late now. I like to buy when valuations are in distress.
Bro ,i also initially was suspectible due to management quality but i think sectoral tailwinds and valuations were/still are attractive. Balasore is at 4.5 times ev/ebidta , imfa is at 11 times. And march qtr results will be blockbuster because of huge Delta (50%)in ferrochrome prices over last qtr.so the ev/ebidta will come considerably down after march results, historically in march 2010 imfa made all time high and it was trading at 18 times ev/ebidta during that times . So in my opinion still there is much steam left.
Yes bro. Maybe steam is left. And I am not questioning anyone’s rationale here. I have just mentioned my investment philosophy. I have outlined in my presentation the factors I look at and based on that, I would not invest at this point.
Last few sectors where I have invested in based on this theme are cement, infra and real estate.
For me, patience paid of for Ashiana. Briefly looked at Ahluwalia, but not yet invested. I’m little bit sceptical yet on Suntek and NBCC. What are your takes in Real Estate sector? For cement, just India Cement, missed Dalmia Bharat 
. Did not participated in Infra, curious where you found value.
Theme is playing out well.
Congratulations on your success! I’m thinking of building a position on some of the lower quality RE stocks with manageable debt -
Peninland
Parsvanth
Puruvankara
Anant Raj
I’d appreciate your views!
Jiten bhai - In cyclicals, important thing is to foresee what’s next (sector). How do you gauze that? The thing is that we need to look for sectors that have been depressed (nobody looking at it), but then, we don;t know when they are making a comeback. If one enters in such stocks, and they go nowhere for next year or so, there is a big opportunity cost. So, how do you determine where to put in your money next. Do you track technicals of the sector? Macros?
I don’t track technicals, as I don’t understand it. Macros is very important and other factors discussed in the presentation.
Sure it is 
Are you tracking Burnpur cement? If yes can you share any notes on the same. The company has done expansion and is introducing new products. Looks good at the current market price. All the negatives are already factored in I feel.
Regards
Krishna
Not tracking Burnpur.
@Tekumani @jitenp Most of the tea stocks have shot up in the past week or so. Andrew Yule, Dhunseri, Goodricke, McLeod Russel etc. Is something cooking in the sector?
Good moves in cement and infra sector.
Fantastic thread jiten. I looked at presentation, really helpful. Can you breifly describe how you recognized infra, cement sector upmove. What symptoms exactly did you see. How do you know when to buy or stock has bottomed out ? An example in each sector stock based on ur experience should help. Do u buy only when u see profits or way earlier ? Sorry, so many questions. I am very curious to learn on the picking skills.
Lot of it is understanding the sector. Understanding macroeconomics. Understanding which phase of economy we are in. Looking at out of favor sectors, and see if there is a potential turnaround ahead. Quiet a few of these factors, are already mentioned in the presentation.
As far as cement, infra is concerned, it was the following thought process.
The first few years, u could see that this govt was focussed on fiscal consolidation. At the same time, there was focus on increasing a pool for infra. By way of cess on oil, etc. I was clear that once fiscal health is in shape, this government will focus on infra. So last 1 year was a very good time to buy beaten down infra companies.
As far as cement goes, both infra and housing was in a downturn. Infra as discussed above looks to be having clear tailwinds. Also, focus on housing for all. And in general an upswing in economy. These factors should be enough for a cement revival.
They key here is always to understand the sector, link it with macro economic factors and enter a bit early. That gives u a leeway to exit much before train hits the wall. And u still make good returns.
We should also look at ancillary sectors. I am also liking building products. Have taken exposure in HIL sometime back. Would like ideas into some more names in this space.
-Jiten Parmar
