RsKm,
I have taken the figures from their annual report. Will u please share your calculation?
Cera is also generating electricity through wind mill. Installed capacity is 4.975 M.W. In 2012 they have generated 52,74,331 kWH as against 52,55,614 kWH in 2011.
Results r out.
http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=47BCA96D-56C7-459C-AF86-517C4C0716A1
looks like gr88 set of numbers for this fastgrower.
Experts plz put your analysis on this.
something wrong with the result declaration ? there is not June Q result in the bse site. Itās revised march Q result.
Thts audited result.
June results not out yet.
Ankit,
My calculations are based on inputs from the company.
Q1 2013-Sales 133.04 cr. Profit 11.18 cr. EPS 8.84
Q1 2012-Sales 95.95 cr. Profit 9.24 cr. EPS 7.30
Result for June quarter is out.
http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/Cera_Sanitaryware_Ltd_110713_Rst.pdf
Sale is up by 40%
Profit is up by 21%. Looks like profit margin is impacted by high portion of traded goods, which is up by 57%. Impact of Rupee depreciation?
Based on jun qtr numbers:
Excise duty 5.78cr - Hence based on 12.36% duty, manufactued goods sales = 59cr
Power and fuel 5.78cr => 10% of manufactured sales
If gas price doubles, co needs to either increase prices of manufactured goods by 10% or absorb it or a partial absorption. Given that competitorās will not have to hike prices, full or partial pass on will impact volume. (If cera could take price hike / if market can absorb higher price / if price gap with competing products is high enough to take price hike), it does not have to wait till cost push to do that. Besides impact on volume, partial absorption will also impact margins.
All this is however in FY15. Nothing in Fy14.
Guidance
OPM to stabilize at 16 %. Sales 35-40 %. New product launches in Faucet ware. Cera has passed some cost to consumers due to rupee depreciation. Aiming to increase exports.
Had felt why havenāt they thought about exports.
On a lighter note they heard me i guess 
Interesting article.
Last year, their OPM was 15 odd percent. That would mean at 16%, they will improve their OPM. And a 35-40% sale growth with potential upside would mean a straight 40% growth in profits.
If management manages to walk the talk, this could be a multi-bagger from here as well.
On a lighter note, Subhash needs to rework his excel sheet :).
Hi Gyan
Hope it turns out to be a multibagger The thing i am concerned about is they venturing into unnecessary territory chasing growth and burning cash in the process.
Positive thing is if industry slows everyone will face pressure but Cera can withstand due to its healthy balance sheet.
When i saw Subhash target for Cera thought it is quite optimistic. Subhash will tell- i told you so if Cera delivers
I think we need to consider 50% growth and 18 pe as most optimistic scenario, which will give us an upside potential of almost 80-90%(best case scenario) in a year.
Which unrelated territory you are talking about? Tiles, I donāt think is an unrelated area, neither are faucet ware. Mirrors and other bathroom utilities also belong to same category. They are all sold in almost same shops where sanitary ware is sold. Actually, I know many good shops which have several floors dedicated to these things. Digitally printed tiles are sort of a new area, and going to be future of tile industry. Cera will do well to catch this new wave and truly start becoming a complete bathroom solution company. Earlier, people thought that TTK prestige was venturing into too many areas, but same people now think that Hawkins missed the innovation bus, when TTKās induction plates and induction cookware became the hottest thing in town.
Yeah,
I somehow felt that the growth will be 20-25% range. Don't know but I have read it from somewhere. I updated my sheet with updated the target. I feel Cera should be within top 3 holding for me.
| Kaveri Seeds | Astral | Alembic Pharma | La Opala | Cera Sanitary | Ajanta Pharma | ||
| Fundamentals | ROE-3Y | 25 | 25 | 29 | 19 | 26 | 24 |
| ROCE-3Y | 34 | 29 | 29 | 23 | 34 | 22 | |
| Sales g 3Y | 45 | 44 | 10 | 23 | 26 | 24 | |
| NP g 3Y | 37 | 43 | 60 | 78 | 30 | 42 | |
| Avg | 35 | 35 | 32 | 36 | 29 | 28 | |
| growth-min | 30 | 35 | 20 | 30 | 35 | 35 | |
| growth-max | 40 | 45 | 30 | 40 | 40 | 40 | |
| pe-min | 16 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 12 | 18 | |
| pe-max | 20 | 25 | 23 | 22 | 16 | 25 | |
| curr-pe | 17 | 22 | 18 | 18 | 14 | 25 | |
| Upside-min | 21 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 18 | -2 | |
| Upside-max | 63 | 65 | 63 | 70 | 63 | 40 | |
| Average | 42 | 38 | 37 | 42 | 41 | 19 |
Hmmm tiles/mirrors etcā¦The targets you are indicating for Cera is achievableā¦
(Penetration of tiles is low compared to other countriesā¦ So growth is not a problem. If they fail on margin front)ā¦
Feel we need someone to pick holes in our projections and guide us.
TTK and Hawkinsā¦Its trueā¦ Simple business with enormous returnsā¦
An article on Cera by business standard
Important point from the above article:
"In the past two years, Ceraās market share in sanitaryware is up by 400 bps to 24 per cent.
It is now the second largest in the industry, ahead of Parryware Roca,"
Great long term story, Cera Sanitaryware
Nice Video on how Cera was built and grown
And now here is what Prof. Bakshi says:
āI cite here four companies which are enjoying volume growth (driven by both increase in the size of their industry as well as market share gains for the companies) AND pricing power: Relaxo Footwear, Cera Sanitaryware, Kewal Kiran Clothing, and Thomas Cook. I am sure there are many many more out thereĆ¢ā
Once market gets clarity on the succession plan it may significantly re-rate Cera ā¦
thanku Ashwin for the linkā¦
Gyan can you post the link of Prof. Bakshiās articleā¦
Regards
mallikarjun