Few More points from concall,Please add if i missed any
Other Expenses went up due to two reasons primarily
a)More small packs (more production for the retail customer),so additional cost in packing etc.
b)shift to CIF contract for some clients.
Higher procurement cost of green coffee caused increase in working capital. They have less than 80 million USD - borrowing out of which 10million is working capital loan, but repaid as term loan only.
Liquid Coffee->Still WIP and may be ready by next year but no revenue guidance for next couple of years(will start adding revenue in 2017-2018 only)
Branded Coffee in India >>Targeting 100 crs in 2 years time.Cautious approach due to earlier failure.They want to make this big.Received a lot of enquiries from top chefs after their sponsorship of a event.Club mahindra/sterling already using continental but they are concerned about distribution/worried about giving credit for growth(NO Credit Policy), otherwise it’s all good.
Institutional sales going good with increase in supply to army canteens/hotels/police canteen etc.30 crs Sales till now, expecting 70-75 crs by this year.
Other income down from 8 crs to 2 crs, this is mainly govt of india incentive but without cash in hand not accounted for in statement
inventory increase is not a concern as they mostly maintain presold inventory(±5%).Max 6 weeks to 8 weeks inventory stock in hand.
India capacity 20000 tons for spray and freeze dried coffee in bulk+retail(5-6%)…target to make retail 10% soon in a year.
vietnam 10000 tons capacity and only spray drying,mostly bulk sales.They plan to utilize capacity by 90% in vietnam by 2017-18 and then double capacity to 20000T.
Coffee price dropped 15-20% still how CCL is growing revenue 15-20% , is it due to volume increase?
CCL sells to different types of clients, different varieties,numerous special products. Selling value added better products giving higher realization and helped in maintaining revenue even in an environment where coffee prices dropped significantly.
last year second quarter was an exceptional quarter,not comparable to other quarters.
Normal trend is Q1 to Q4 increasing revenue in coffee business but for the last 2 yrs 3rd and 4th generally better for CCL(60:40 ratio)
Except in USA no competition from brazil.,brazil produces 35% of coffee but they don’t import so have to sell only own coffee and not growing much.CCL can import duty free from anywhere and create special products(brazil can’t compete).CCL’s market is mainly Europe and the Far East.
Strategy in US - Law may change soon(6 months?) and will put everyone at par.Right now CCL can’t compete with brazil due to currency and adulteration,CCL sells pure coffee.US is biggest market and they may soon start expanding in US.currently into packaging mainly.Talks on with supermarkets but problem is no credit to anybody policy.
Just my thoughts,
They are maintaining growth even when coffee prices have gone down so much, already ~60 cr bottom line in first half, so may be able to reach 120/130 crore easily for the full year. All the reasons for investing still looks well in place and number of triggers possible in future.