Nice working, I assume in the working above - when you say tgt achieved - it refers to the loan book tgt for the year.
Few thoughts -
Your working seem to suggest that they would be overly dependent on new branches for achieving incremental growth. However, intuitively, once the branches mature - they are likely to get more business and hence with an established branch network, you are more likely to achieve your tgts. It’s the pains in the past which will bear fruits in the future.
If you listen to the concall - they are clearly saying that owing to intense competition - they are driven to Tier 2 to Tier 4 locations for incremental business. This is reflected in their avg. ticket size remaining stagnant for over 3 years now - as the shift to farther locations. Hence, incremental business will take longer time as ticket sizes are lower.
Management states that supply side issues in the affordable category in Karnataka region (Avg ticket size of 18 Lks) is the key reason for lower growth. Lets assess and track whether we can confirm this data point. If we can get more info on the kind of project launches in and around the outskirts of Bangalore - it will be of immense help.