Camlin Fine Science Limited --- Looks interesting but some way to go


(Rudra Chowdhury) #108

Very high debt laden expansions are sure shot recipe for disaster and lead to many bankruptcies in the past.
Why one can be a bit hopeful, that they would not completely mess up the Dahej expansion is because of their past execution history. They have successfully executed mega integration towards higher sales with improved margins while managing heavy debt almost 2-2.5x of equity.


(Rudra Chowdhury) #109

Based on the March 2018 Balance Sheet, we see the large rise in Fixed Assets as well as CWIP.
Equity raised significantly, so that gearing is somewhat balance even with elevated debt.

Also this business will remain Working Capital heavy and would need lot of working capital debt going into FY19 and FY20.

In Summary, we have a business with 13% OCF to Sales (FY2016) during business-as-usual period.
Looking at FY20 projected OCF, one is getting a chance to on-board a business at 8-10x OCF/FY20 Sales at 1121 Cr current market cap.

Disclosure : Invested


(nitin.verma) #110

After a painful last couple of years, the company seems to have found its path. Thr last quarter earnings showed
back to positive at standalone level and ebitda positive at consolidated level.https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/320c478b-ae1c-4bcc-8fb0-e1b363c12411.pdf
The outlook article summarises
httpsww.outlookbusiness.com/markets/feature/the-right-blend-4589
Things to watch out for : commencing of dahej plant in q4 , capacity utilisation of Chinese subsidiary Which is currently at 60% capacity utilisation, growth in Italian subsidiary which had a negative ebidta of -3%


(Aveek Mitra) #113

I feel the company business is getting more and more complicated to understand and too much of successive dilution. I am not tracking it for a while now as sold around Rs. 120/- sometime back.

They are doing all the right things on paper but I am not so sure about the ability to execute this multi location / multi business set up with so little skin in the game by promoter.

My opinions may be biased as I struggled understanding this company for a long time but efforts didn’t yield much fruits at the end :smile:


(Rudra Chowdhury) #114

This is to inform you that on 10th October, 2018, the senior management team of the Company and that of our wholly owned subsidiary namely CFS Europe S.p.A, Italy (hereinafter referred as the Italian Plant) is hosting a video conference call with various funds and institutional investors to address certain concern raised by investors in relation to the operations/performance of the Italian Plant.


(A. King) #115

I give up on this company’s ability to deliver projects. Debt ridden balance sheet in growing interest rates + Poor execution = Disaster for individual investor.

Does anyone see light at the end of tunnel?


(Rudra Chowdhury) #116

Many people are confused with the multiple moving parts as it continues the forward integration journey. The following charts gives you a simplified view of things.

Any such large massive expansion would have many problems, as things stabilize slowly much beyond the stipulated time frames. The current traction and management actions has been supportive so far. With the IDC funding and financial closure attained - the bet is entirely now on execution.

As highlighted in the thread before, they have managed such large debt laden expansion in the past and came out triumphant enjoying the fruits of the labor. I am cautiously optimistic and continue to buy slowly on the dips.