Camlin Fine Sciences (SELL)
Where is the Sales Growth?, Waiting for Sales engine to fire up.
Market Cap : 936.50 Crs | CMP : 90.60 | Total Equity : 10.37
With Major Capex already under way and sales engine not picking up, the company seems to be headed for troubled times ahead. The Company desperately needs to fire up its sales engine to achieve 150 Cr plus every quarter to take full benefit of margin expansion.
About Camlin Fine Sciences
Camlin Fine Sciences is a global player operating in shelf-life solutions & intermediates for food, feed and pet food. The Company has strong presence in food grade antioxidants (TBHQ + BHA), controlling almost 45% market Share. The company is also venturing into Blends through its brands Xtendra & Nasure. As per company, the Global Market for Antioxidants is ~US$3.2 Billion.
Main Products & Revenue Segments
As per latest Company presentation (May 2016), The Company derives 56% of its revenue from Antioxidants ( TBHQ + BHA), 22% from Performance Chemicals (Guaiocal, TBC, MEHQ), 18% from Diphenols ( HQ & Catechol) & 1% from Aroma Chemicals (Vanillin / Ethyl Vanillin).
Main Product Applications
Shelf - Life Solutions : Shelf Life Extension Products with presence in antioxidants & intermediates for food, feed, pet food and animal nutrition.
Performance Chemicals : Wide array of applications, fast growing segment for CFS using new product introduction, scale & technology.
Aurma Chemicals : Synthetic replacement for natural Vanilla & offers multiple advantages like lower cost, improved availability & consistency.
Current Capacity & Margin Trend
Currently the company manufactures key raw materials HQ & Catechol at Italy with a capacity of 5,000 MT for HQ & 6000 MT for Catechol. With integrated Raw Material Supply they were able to increase their margins from 12.24% in 2012 to 18.94% in 2016. However in the last 3 Qtrs we have seen a drop in margins from 14.73 % to 8.03%. This means that the key trigger is demand for HQ & Catechol, without the Growth in Sales company’s capacity in Dahej needs to be Questioned.
Last 3 Years the Company posted 517 Crs (2014), 567.73 Crs (2015) & 498.08 Crs (2016) in Sales. The Current 3 Qtr figure is 391 Crs (2017), indicating that the company requires at least 179 Crs in Q4 to match up to Last Year’s Sales Figure, which looks less likely. Sharp increase in the cost of raw materials consumed this quarter eroded operating margins.
Valuations & Rationale for Sell Rating
At today’s close of 90.60 the company is trading at a Market Cap of ~930 Crs. In terms of EV/EBIDTA the stock is trading at 14.2x TTM, and 86x TTM PE. Even if the stock does 20 Crs EBIDTA for the next four quarters stock will be trading at 13.58x times which appears to be a bit expensive. There for would recommend a Sell on the Stock.
Questions for Management / Industry Players / Members that can help change view
-What is Market Potential for Blends ?
-What are the competitive dynamics for Blend manufacturers v/s normal antioxidant manufactures ?
-What is the recent trend ? Are people preferring Natural Antioxidants to Synthetic Ones?
-How is the Market & Price Scenario for TBHQ + BHA ?
-Who are the main players for Guaiocal ? How is the Price Trend ? Is there major threat from Chinese Manufacturers ?
-What is Future of Ex-Catechol Route compared to Ex-ONCB Route for manufacturing Vanillin?
-Which other players manufacturer the same and how difficult is it to acquire the said technology?
-What is the Status for Patent applied for Ex-Catechol Route ?
-Key Chemicals to track - Prices of HQ, Catechol & Vanillin ?
-Margins may be protected with Volatile HQ and Catechol Prices, but what about Demand for HQ and Catechol ?
-What is the company doing to fire its Sales Engines ?
Discl : Not Invested, just trying to understand whats behind the stock. Would appreciate if someone could help me answer these questions.