Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals

(preetkaran) #1071

SBI forming cup and Handle, may go up

(phreak) #1072

Remember this?

That’s how it played out. All those articles were placed just as in Indian Bank case from earlier.

(Amit Jain) #1073

well played with Edelweiss. Short the news…

(NoobsterKing) #1074

Hello all senior boarders, have a specific question regarding the TA approach.How do you short in Indian markets in delivery terms ( not intraday). Have been trying to look at some method through which we can play the downfall as well.

(narmad) #1075


(manivannan.g) #1076

The smallcaps broke the trendline as expected (1% down from yesterday’s close), one can expect more downside.

Disc: Not a reco.

(manivannan.g) #1077

From this point, we are already down by 3.7%. Guessing we are gonna go down bit more as per the trend lines. And plotted the support levels.

For the current downfall, the the Oct-2018 lows will try to act as a support, if that’s breached expect it to get the next support at Dec-2016’s double bottom level. Which seems more likely. In case of major fall, we will be back to 2015 range.

(manivannan.g) #1078

When OCCL announced buyback, the stock immediately rushed to the 1150 and stayed there itself, stayed like a dead dodo. Thanks to the daily buyback, which lasted for around 2months. Once the (only) buyer is gone, the stock has tumbled.

Over the last two+ months, they managed to buy back about 180,000 shares till Friday the 8th of Feb. The average volumes of this stock are a ludicrously tiny 4,000 shares a day, and typically a good portion of the volume has been because the buyer is, well, the company itself.

And then, today, someone hit the stock with a massive 120,000 share order, and in a few minutes the big buyer was gone. The 120,000 shares meant that the buyback was over. The company cannot buy back more shares, because they have the upper limit of R.s 35 cr. on the buyback.


Oriental Carbon and Chemicals Ltd
(Praveen Shekhar) #1079

Good job on the volumetric accumulation and distribution analysis. Also what can be seen is breakaway gap and run away gaps with volumes (circled accumulation by you) and exhaustion gap (right below circle marked distribution). Notice the lack of volumes on exhaustion gap which closed very soon. Also notice the rising expanding wedge breakdown there shown below. Have shown both daily and weekly so indicators can be judged better. Seems 113 is imminent. On monthly pattern looks like a bearish flag breakdown.

No holdings. Posted just for the benefit of those trying to learn patterns and different views

(Praveen Shekhar) #1080

No i dont see textiles much but charting can be done nonetheless.

(Praveen Shekhar) #1081

Interesting how different views and the way one looks at charts can have same results in targets. your rounded top is also, in effect a complex H&S pattern with 1450 peak to 1100 neckline which gives 350 points downside target from 1100 or 750, which was done also splendidly by the pattern. Since not much can be inferred to even by monthly indicators as to further downside, quarterly support seems to be poised at 505. Also note the rectangle breakdown on monthly also suggesting further slide. Fundamentally, a buy around CMP would be fine for 50% and another buy at either 505 on slide, or above 660 for balance 50% on confirming bottom in place.

(phreak) #1082

Something doesn’t smell right here.

There are pages and pages of disposals in the last few months


and three articles in moneycontrol today


The valuation looks very high even post the recent correction at 25 P/E and 15 EV/EBITDA when most similar companies are at 15 P/E and about 7-10 EV/EBITDA.

(manivannan.g) #1083

You are right, when the media goes gaga over anything we need to do exact opposite :slight_smile: Some big fish exited today and in the last few days. I was tracking this and was wondering why this stock is reacting negatively with the positive news :smiley: then avoided.

HEG Saga:


And you posted about the Edelweiss saga.

(manivannan.g) #1084

When I was going through the Page Industries chart, I remembered an old tweet from the infamous ContrarionEPS :joy:

(Praveen Shekhar) #1085

definitely fishy. Beyond the 1000 mark pennant breakout, only euphoria buying has raised the price. Noticeable offload of shares by heavy hands seen at 1350-1150 levels. and yet again from 1750 to 1314. Massive divergences in stochrsi and TRIX. Expecting re-visit of 1060-890. BTW, edelweis hit 116 as opposed to 113 which i said and bounced. :slight_smile:

(divyansh ) #1086

Attached are charts of both power ancillary/distribution companies. Interesting to note is that both have made good accumulation pattern during this difficult phase for small cap and midcap. Both have kind of broken major resistances and even look good on yearly charts.
Looking to go long on both on dips with a medium term view .

(Praveen Shekhar) #1087

@hitesh2710. It seems Indiabullshsgfin has held 2016 lows and i feel a bottom has been made. Stock above 660 is a very good sign. Cheers

(Sarabjeet Singh) #1088

Do you guys see a Triple top or Head and Shoulder spread over a time of 6 months in Auro Pharma ( Both are bearish only). Confirmation may appear soon if it breaks neck line decisively.

Fundamentally dont have much idea on this, quarterly numbers looked fine except some margin percentage fall.

(Abhishek Basumallick) #1089

When there is heavy selling, there is also heavy buying :slight_smile:

(Vinay Taparia) #1090

Cup n Handle break out and Converted H&S break out in IDFC first Bank above 49.55.