Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals


(J2EE Professional) #815

are you revisiting your counts ? You seem to be expert in EW… i am just a price action guy. What’s your take on small cap index now?


(manivannan.g) #816

Hi, I’m not an expert in EW. I’m a learner too… I just started using it for quite sometime now.

Coming to the CNX Smallcap index, I’m not considering a recount of smallcap index for the following reasons.

When I observed that CNX Smallcap is approaching the invalidation level, i.e 6040. I wanted to take a look at its twin, the BSE Smallcap index to see where it is standing. What I see is, theres more room left for the invalidation level in BSE Smallcap, also both the small cap indices moves in tandem.

Hence I won’t call for a recount in a hurry. When i get confusion in candlestick, where the wicks may overlap with other wave’s top, I do consider what the line chart says. There’s no written rule that one should use only candlestick for the EW, people even use Renko charts for EW counts. So as per that Even the CNX Small cap yet close below 10800 level.

This is my EW count for BSE Smallcap.

Here’s the comparison with the CNX Smallcap(NSE)


Orange line: CNX Smallcap
Candle Stick: BSE Smallcap
And marked their wave 1 level in the chart.
The levels are indexed to 100. This was drawn 5 days ago. We still have enough room to call for a recount.

If you see the weekly & daily RSI convergence. During an impulsive wave, if I see this convergence in overbought zone, that most probably indicates the top of the impulsive wave. During the corrective waves, if I see this convergence in the oversold zone, I consider it as the bottom is approaching, that is wave C is gonna end. Sometimes, if the conditions doesn’t allow, this may languish in the oversold zone for quite sometime.

PS: This is just my view by applying EW guidelines. Not a trading reco, just for education and understanding the market direction.


(J2EE Professional) #817

ok, using bse small cap index does make sense. actually even with price action wise its at very strong support cluster, though trend and momentum wise, its shown tremendous vigour on downside. infact the trend is almost as strong as 2008. RSI also seems to have broken the trendline supports on the downside, though price did not. So, its possible that we have range bound move, which possible should be a good scenario, given crude is not going down in a hurry now.


#818

yes we are in an oversold situation, the inference is from technical indicators, which are nothing but mathematical formulas coded with feed from the past 14weeks or 14days or 14months…
the results are as good as the numbers that are fed into the code…

but in realty, can the market continue to move up while discounting the currency depreciation, crude boiling , further tightening of the monetary policy and the liquidity crunch that is coming into the disclosures might be the tip of an iceberg…

i am concerned , what if ILFS is a precursor indicator , of what was Bear Stearns to the wall street?

what i am particularly disturbed about is this picture in the gold futures market…


gold has become terribly oversold, with a very strong bearish tend [ADX>50] , without forming a new low, and a multimonth highest contract transaction, even higher than when it crashed into the bear market

who is hedging against the current world economic situation silently, without taking the prices higher? or in other words, who is diversifying the portfolio for an all weather portfolio…

looking at the shorter term picture[indian index]…
technically, there selling has reached some major trendlines…
a base / slow uptrending channel leading to a euphoric upthrust, might form here…
but what will be the objective of the base/ channel?
we need to be very cautions, what i am keeping my eyes wide open, to look if this is a redistribution that might be shaping up…


#819

yes sumit… the way i see operator group as a composite group as i learnt from the wyckoff principles… they are the entire smart money taken together in a single unit, and they run the show where we play in…
anyways, they totally destroyed the trend in hdfc bank…
they are the whales of the ocean, our objective is not to get eaten or ride with them…


(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #820

Very true. There is a time to show courage and there is a time to show caution. I think we are passing through the latter. When we check the crude price, we generally compare in Dollar terms like $141 a decade back vs $85 now, whereas, the impact is in Rupee terms, where the crude price is trading almost at 2008 peak level.

An information that should be given thought.


#821

@devaki.tripathy , have u been following the Venezuela story? if so please provide inputs…

before the collapse happened in 2008… iceland had perfectly shown the future vortex of collapse that was coming…
wondering if turkey and venezuela are models for the upcoming bear market for the fiat currency?


(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #822

Venezuelan situation is bad, that’s all I got from news. Don’t have in depth knowledge to form an informed opinion. But oil production has already crashed from around 3.0 mbpd to less than 1.5 mbpd in last couple of years, so its collapse is bullish for crude but won’t result in a massive spike, IMHO.


#823

I was a bit hesistant to link these in the previous post…
But anyway, if this is against the forum rules, moderators can feel free to delete it…
Talking about the very strange occurance in the gold futures market, there were several campaign which led to that… And ofcourse fuelling the current accumulation…
Here is a sensible fundamental analysis to the gold campaign…

And here is a technical one…


#824

Peter Shiff has been predicting a crisis for a decade now if I could recall properly. He is a gold bug too. Gold has been in a bear market of its own but some silver lining on the horizon. RBI and other central banks have started buying physical gold and that’s a bullish signal. Inflation and Fx turmoil is about to escalate around the world. Don’t know about the bull market in gold but fundamentally it seems to have bottomed out.


#825

yes he has been doing so for a number of years…

gold’s bear market has been induced for a reason i believe, for preparation of a hedging pot for a bigger economic crisis than the world seen in 2008… around the same time, cyptocurrencies became a reality…
the supporting evidence technically is this…

this is a major gold miner company…

in 2006, the charts shows preliminary supply, where the large interested has started supplying the gold market…
it was one of the early periods when the talk of a financial crisis started…
an excerpt…
### Ann Pettifor, director of Policy Research in Macroeconomics (PRIME)

Pettifor’s 2006 publication – The Coming First World Debt Crisis – bombed on its release, but became a bestseller after the GFC. The then little-known British economist claimed levels of private debt were unsustainable and that the debt crisis “will hurt millions of ordinary borrowers, and will inflict prolonged dislocation and economic, social and personal pain on those largely ignorant of the causes of the crisis, and innocent of responsibility for it.”

In the book, Pettifor blames the US Federal Reserve, politicians and mainstream economists for endorsing a framework to support unsustainably high levels of borrowing and consumption under the guise of propping up the economy. Continuing the theme in her most recent writing, Pettifor attacks the “small elite that controls the global finance sector” and suggests government bailouts protecting speculative private wealth holders mean “we are no longer dealing with anything resembling a free market system”.

july 2008 was the buying climax and then the automatic reaction in the market crash …
and what followed was classical distribution, and the manipulated bear market was induced…

presently, the stock is getting accumulated along with most other gold miners since 2016…
and the gold prices have hit selling climax 5 years ago, although it recently got distributed in 2018…

rational for using miner’s chart instead o gold, is because, it was already in a bubble, which messes up TA, rather, the activities in the miner’s chart is more reflective of what the large interests were doing during that gold bubble and what they are doing now…


#826

the current scenario will be the differentiator, if this is actually a accumualtion going on in rain industry or not… or is it a part of plain vanilla downtrend redistirbution

indicators point towards possibility of a show of demand form here…

while the demand supply scene is waiting for the show of demand to confirm anything…

disclaimer… have been detached form the fundamentals on this scrip for a while…
no positions… anyone, have any updates on it, please mention


#827

another nifty stock damaged…

disclaimer… no positions


(Arun S G) #828

Yep, am tracking this from a fundamental perspective. Its taken a lot of pounding from analysts and investors for refusing to play the scooter market, but I think their quadricycle effort is lot less appreciated. They have single handedly created a new class of vehicle and while they wait for domestic market to gain regulatory and customer acceptance, are already exporting the qcs abroad. Says a lot about their gumption.


(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #829

600 down in Sensex, 150 down in Nifty, in other words, another normal trading day for Indian markets…

Both 50 and 100 DMA could not provide any significant resistance to the downturn, indicating, how superficial the rise had been. Looking at the downward momentum, it seems, it’s just a matter of time before the 200 DMA is taken out.

Macro scenario looks increasingly shakier with the rise in crude, both domestic and global political turmoil and the tariff war. The favourite word of bulls, structural reforms, is still to show any effect on the ground.

Coming months will test a lot of convictions. The ship will take a lot of time to turn around.


#830

gruh finance…

this is going to be one big distribution going forward…

disclaimer… no positions


#831

As if crude and INR troubles were not enough… we have 10Y US treasury rate touching multi year high of 3.15%. all bets are off now including on gold


(phreak) #834

Nifty Monthly - I think this is a repeating pattern. Earlier multi-year consolidation was around 6200-6400 as a top between 2008 to 2013 (5 years) which was taken out in the Modi rally. There was a healthy and deep correction in 2016 after making a top of 9000. The correction was deep and went down to 7000 levels which is little over 22% correction from top. However, the previous resistance of 6200-6400 was not tested and the correction went to a 10% higher level than that (7000).

Then the 9000 top was a resistance zone for 2 years which was taken out post demonetisation and a top of 11800 was made (30% from resistance of 9000) and if correction is like previous time, a 20-25% from top would be somewhere between 9500-10000. Again, we may not test the previous resistance of 9000 the same way the correction from 9000 never tested 6400. I presume we will definitely test the long-term Nifty trendline sloping upwards sometime in the next 6-8 months.


(Ungboysj) #835

4d

[email protected] ji I m very impressed and intrigued by your techincal analysis

Could u guide me how to learn wyckoff analysis

Also please could you analyse Bitcoin techincally I shall be grateful to you


(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #836

It’s always healthy to hear the counter view.