Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals


(Capsule91) #442

Tracking Coromandel…

company posted good q1 earnings…

A formation is on the way, hard to tell from this if this is accumulation or redistribution , at least now…
what ever it is, we are in phase b…

the volume of the swing which led to the prelim support was massive 5.4million
buying started there with 1.7m shares, such a volume of buying was seen again in th ecurrent rally with 1.8million shares … mean while after the pre support, the selling climax happened in ridiculously low volumes , why i still call it a climax is there was stark change in character in the price action and a good upswing occurred on just 2lakh share transaction… which means, the sellers didnt show up and the price moved on the ask of the buyers… sp essentially here the conclusion… the downtrend ends…

now the game of wyckoffians starts…
a huge shakeout with impressive volumes of 1.6million share transaction …
i am quite sure this is the operators manipulating and scaring the retail and making them sell…
specially because, the next upswing was damn clean with low volumes… again sellers dont show up on this upswing…
hint of smart money accumulating the shares from the retail…

then another shake out done, on half the volume of the previous shakeout…
but this time… the upswing, has a different character, slow, slurred and spectacular volumes…
some one is selling again, specially in the mid of the rally…
post shakeout , the sellers are always the manipulators…
[shakeout stands for shakeout of the weak hands ie the retail ]
which to me, seem like they are testing supply levels already within the uptrend
reduces the possibility of another forced shakeout…
and more so because the its clear that the first sell off on 1.6m n the second is 0.9m, so definitely with that action, they have already taken the shares form the retail hands…

so now, to me looks like the need for phase C is less…
as enough of retail scaring has been done in phase b itself, and we sud be moving on to phase d where the last point of support is to form…
the 414 region is what i am watching…

anyways, lets see, how the market unfolds now…

disclaimer… planning to make entry if the price action validates a phase d…


(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #443

@Capsule91 What sort of target do you see in JK Paper? No immediate plans to sell but what about long term targets?

Discl. Holding from lower levels since couple of years.


(Capsule91) #444

cannot comment publicly on price targets…

check inbox


(phreak) #445

Mirza Intl - Inverted H&S on the hourly chart

Rain (Update from this)

Hidden bullish divergence held up well from 170. Now looks set for more.

Kitex (Update from this post)

Pullback in progress

PEL - Looks to be a false breakout as the resistance range held up. Update from this


(Capsule91) #446

pel is gonna do a back up in 2500 to 2700 form lps n then move fr markup, now in phase d of reaccumulation…

disclaimer… traded and exited at 2944.3


(Capsule91) #447

IG petrochem

accumulation in progress…

it is very evident that 665 thousand shares transaction and counting, on this rally after the shakeout, is the upswing with the biggest volumes in 2018…
and it breaks the down trend line of the schematics…

mean while the selling pressure has eased, had increased in shakeout, but thats expected and artificial…

there must be some kind of correction recently, and the selling pressure there will be the key to determine if the LPS[last point of support] formation is happening or not…

disclaimer… not invested, will take positional trade at LPS and BU


(Capsule91) #448

persistent systems…

continuation…



big volume surge , similar volume recently was seen in the previous doji[ in candle volume chart, the width of the candle represents the volumes]…

to be watched closely, if a break out happens on follow through of this demand spike…

disclaimer… not positions, waiting to take on breakout


(Capsule91) #449

delta corp…

accumulation ongoing , not yet out of the trading range, should leading to a primary wave 5 formation

disclaimer… long trade active… will add more on proper LPS formation


(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #450

@phreakv6 @Capsule91 @manivannan.g

Okay I get the point that no bull wants to touch PSU banks but please do have a look at the chart of Vijaya Bank. Is it showing signs of long term trend reversal or just a false breakout? Delivery has been good and after dipping below 200 DMA yesterday, it again closed above it.

Please do share your technical views.

Discl. Vested interest.


(Capsule91) #451

counted from point and figure charts, nifty should reach climax in the 11907 to 12488 range…


(Capsule91) #452

@devaki.tripathy very nice observation…
clearly the action climbed up the moving average , backed up and tested supply, and then continued with the trend… this behaviour is itself bullish, specially today’s candle was a nice marubozu with minimum upwick, demand was definitely in control…

looking at the weekly chart…

there is a downtrend channel we see, and the rallies repeatedly failing to even test the prior highs…
3 things here…

  1. there was a selling climax which was followed by a rally, on good volumes and a change of character
  2. what happened next was another decline on even higher volumes of 147.3 million shares compared to 119 million ont he prior downswing, but the price hardly made new low below the climax… lots of effort, no result… this is the first bullish sign in the chart…
    3.the next decline, was on just 63 million share transaction… at the conclusion of which a big bullish bar…

to me this looks like the supply has been absorbed/ in the process of absorption…
and a change of character on this rally, will be seen, if not, it sud go as i mentioned in the chart…

if i am to take a trade, i would watch for a change of character and then a decline and the selling pressure on that, that would form the last point of support… which is the phase d of wyckoff accumualtion schematics…

hope this helps…

disclaimer… not invested


(Capsule91) #453

quick post about gail…

https://www.tradingview.com/x/8KBqcPyp/

this is a classical rounded bottom accumulation which has tested the top of the trading range after spring action…

now the formation of last point of support on phase d is awaited, for making an entry,…

one might also call, a cup and handle pattern in formation…

disclaimer… looking to make an entry in 352 to 360 region and compound gains from other trades


(Capsule91) #454

Ador fontech…

growing very fond of this price action…

a 4 year long accumulation…

on a contra side view, huge surge in volume [4311 thousand] coudnt propel breakout of the trading range…
a clear breakout and then support taking form the resistance line of the trading range., would be the best case test of the structure that has developed…
disclaimer… invested and adding


(manivannan.g) #455

That’s pretty much true, this is not only apply to PSU banks, also to the PSU companies :slight_smile:. By looking at the current scenario, Hind Copper is in v.attractive valuation, but only hindrance is it’s a PSU. Because, I never dare to touch a PSU.


(Capsule91) #456

Coromandel…
continuation post and swing update

the last upswing was on massive volume surge , 2.8 million shares were transacted…
this is highest in the schematics since the prelim support which was o 5.8 million…

talking about levels here, the chart is a bit messy though, with all the possible moving averages and bollinger band clubbed into a single indicator , here the blue MA is are the 50 week sma nd ema, which is acting as a support, today the high volume candle was a hammer with test at 50 day sma…
to me it looks like the 50dma will agian be tested on lower volumes and since the 50dma is curving down looks like will nearly intersect with the 20ema median line of the bollinger bad[marked with dotts n red combo] and the red 20day ema, so the market green region rest, looks likely…
if the volumes on this downswing dries off, lesser than any of the shakeout volumes [1.6 and 0.9 million], this can be a last point of support [lower, generally 2 lps forms one lower and one higher in the trading range , separated by the creek, which is presently the 200day wilder moving average at 429, the line of biggest resistance]…

the schematics is still in phase b, with high probability of jump into phase d…

disclaimer… watching, no positions taken yet


(Capsule91) #457

this chart will be just for fun and to be taken lightly…
[although i believe this is very much whats gonna happen]

this is the fractal copy of 2003 to 2009 , some what rescaled and compared to the present price action…

NOT for price targets also, from point and figure charts i mentioned, the likely top of nifty should be 12488 , in my previous post…


the parabolic move to the extreme euphoria has started…


(Capsule91) #458

bls international…

continuation post…


the lower lps formation dissected, and the bullish motives of the manipulators evident here…
the post LPS sos formation is on the way, resistance at 194 which is the 200dma and 226 from point and figure chart where the next rotation is expected

disclaimer… invested


(Capsule91) #459

ador fontech…

continuation and post update

i wanted to time my addition into this scrip now, and here is the additional analysis i did taking the swing volumes…

conclusion is, there should be another retest of the supply , after the climactic huge volume stopping action, and then the bullish upmove that is expected…
what iwill be expecting is a low volume decline, when the market will be telling us, there are not much sellers left in the system and demand is about to get higher than the supply, and a markup

or the other situation is, if the 123 level is broken out, on volumes and on bullish bars, thats another confirmation, that the operators are not selling to retest the supply and are ready for markup… eitherwise we should be redy for the market to lead us
https://www.tradingview.com/x/uLOyFaeO/

disclaimer… invested and adding


(Jiitt007) #460

Seems you have tried to extrapolate the chart of 03-08 & with 2016 onwards but the global scenario especially economically & fundamentally are more developed now. Apart from that earlier 03-08 was mainly driven by FII whereas now the driver is MF with the help of retail ppl.


(Capsule91) #461

any market moves with a fractal nature in waves of 5, 3 impulse up , 2 corrections …
that the final wave of this whole bigger impulse is on the way is visually appreciable after having 2 impulse up and 2 corrections …
not only indian indices , but take any reference market , all are positioned in the same way, for example the us indices which i track…
and all of them move in tandem…

yes, the depth of the correction is questionable, and and might range from 30 to 50% of the highest quote …