Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals


(Capsule91) #422

Continuation post…

beautiful back up action in the phase d of wyckoff reaccumaultion…

dislcaimer… trading position


(Capsule91) #423

Philip carbon black…

wyckoff reaccumualtion…

well this is a discovered story already…
so whats new…
i think 3 things which can make the market give a little bit more valuations to the company
are…
1.improving revenue mix wherein the specialty carbon black has been steadily increasing, with better margins than the commodity …
2.raw material prices a pass through to the customers plus price hike done for the tyre industry
3.capacity expansion- a.brownfield- expanding its Mundra capacity by 56k
tonnes by Q3FY19 and increasing specialty carbon black capacity at Palej
plant by 32k tonnes by Q2FY20[ the 32k tonnes expansion of specialty carbon black is likely to come online in 2 phases with the first line of 12,000 MT to come online by end of Q4FY19 and another line of 20,000 MT to come online by Q2FY20]
Also the company incremented its capacity by 43k tonnes by debottlenecking exercise which has been completed already in fy18.
Now, this incremental capacity[43+56+32KT] has a higher share of speciality grade CB lines (44 KT out of 127KT) with overall share of speciality grade CB increasing from 4% in
FY18 to ~8% in FY20. Speciality grade carbon black EBITDA margins are to the tune of ~4-5x normal grade CB that will aid improvement in EBITDA margin and structural uptick in earnings, going forward.
capex for brownfield expansion- 450cr
b.greenfield- 1.5lakh tonnes pA is planned , for which land acquisition location is yet tobe finalized… no time line mentioned on this, and a estimated capex of 600cr for this …

talking with yoy Q1 numbers, 26.4% inflation of expenditure , 1% volume growth , 33% sales growth , 68% ebitda growth and improvement of ebitda margin to 21.2% by 439bps, PAT growth was at 102%…

everything was a compounded effect of better margin revenue mix, pass through of raw material prices to the customer and additional annual price hike , and ofcourse incremental demand form the indian tyre industry , after imposition of anti dumping duty on tyres …
the demand grown continues to be at the same pace in india and globally and is expected to grow at a rate of 8.3cagr annually [globally] …

what adds pricing power to this segment of the industry is the fact that, the chinese are losing their cost controlled production edge…Majority of chinese manufacturers use the carbon black oil route to manufacture carbon black and reduction in chinese steel production has led to shortage of Coal Tar which used to derive CBO, thereby increasing CBO prices…
in case of the already high margin nature of the speciality CB, the growth is expected to be accelerated from 2.7% to 3.5% over the next few years, mainly headed by plastic industry consumption…

domestic and global demand supply gap is intact and imo is going to be widened till 2020…
No new capacity expansion of any other CB players i noted at the moment…

hence i believe, the company is poised for the next leg of growth in fy20 , and a wyckoff reaccuualtion in fy19 makes a lot of sense in the charts…

disclaimer… not invested, yet, tracking, waiting for a phase c change of character of a final shakeout if conducted, to enter…


(Capsule91) #424

Lupin

continuation post

excellent back up action forming the last point of suppoirt at trenline…

volume candle chart


disclaimer… trading position initiated at LPS


#425

Hi @Capsule91,
I went through the entire thread.
I’ve very recently got curious about technical analysis, all the while from last 16 years, focussing only on fundamental analysis.
it is very interesting to know that you are applying both Fundamental and technical aspects in buy/sell decisions,

I’m holding Edelweiss since around 2 years, I’m seeing that it is attempting to breakout on the analysis on MACD, STOCH and RSI weekly charts.
Can you please give your views on Edelweiss?


(Capsule91) #426

well, your timing of the comment cannot be better imo…

i think we are at the conclusion of the accumulation, and a closing above 317 should be watched , as it might start a significant rally…

volume candle chart…


but it looks like the 5th primary wave thats ongoing, after completion of which there shoudl be a significant correction on cycle wave 2…
another way of looking at the key breakout level is breakout of the resistance arc 5 and the over head horizontal level 4… which is roughly 313

disclaimer… trading positions


(Capsule91) #427

uflex…

continuation post…

disclaimer… not positions


(Capsule91) #428

couldnt find any post of mine on endurance…

i guess i missed posting it…

markup started in this wyckoff reacc…


candle volume chart also demonstrates the same effect…

gradual absorption of supply and volatility into a last pint of support and then markup

disclaimer… trading positions initiated mid june


(Capsule91) #429

Another breakout happened today in torrent pharma…

continuation post…

its not yet out of the trading range so should back up and form a LPS before markup

disclaimer… forms 7percent of my holdings


(Capsule91) #430

axis bank…
confirms change of character today…


volume candle chart

disclaimer… no positions as yet, tracking


(Capsule91) #431

YES BANK…
feels like ready for markup


volume candle chart

res ipsa loquitur


disclaimer… long position taken today


(Capsule91) #432

nice back up…

earnings shall be important here at this stage

disclaimer… trading long position


(Anuj Maheshwari) #433

How is Suven looking on charts?


(Capsule91) #434

VIRINCHI-

a young reaccumulation

presently secondary tests are being done in phase b
with repeated selling climax n buying climax within th edowntrend channel
but there is evidence of supply absorption as mentioned

i think the composite group will retest the supply level in sub 90 region once more, coz that makes a lot of sense since the supply volumes on that selling climax was not bad…
so a lot of sellers were there , and lower volume retest there will confirm a exhaustion of selling pressure and then a buying spree from the operators would start…

lets see how it goes…

personally i dont like the stock movement as much i like the fundamentals here, historically, with each rally the correction was pretty deep almost 50% of it , if not even more on an average , for example in the weekly chart…

disclaimer… no positions

correction in the chart…
“decline in supply force”


(Capsule91) #435

PERSISTENT SYSTEMS-

case of wyckoff accumulation with a pinch of salt for now


monthly chart on volume candles…

daily chart on volume candles[the current ascending triangle phase]…
So basically even though on the monthly chart the accumulation is visible,
looking a bit deeper in to the weekly and daily picture, the markup is facing severe resistance
with the fundamentals on track, why the composite group might not be able to launch adequate bull market campaign , is may be due to the general negativity and caution in the market and hence the supply is flowing back in…
i will be cautious here, as one cannot deny fresh evidence of distribtuion might have started…

personally, without a clear breakout , i will not be risking entry into this setup…

disclaimer… no positions


(Capsule91) #436

continuation post…

the support test was successful…!
lovely price action in dow jones industrials


(Anuj Maheshwari) #437

Can u share d chart for Suven plz? Thnks


(manivannan.g) #438

Motilal Oswal seems to be poised for good bounce. Technically lot of bullish signal (RSI, Ichimoku, Elliott wave), if the fundamentals supports, expect the fireworks.

Disclosure: No holdings, watching closely. Not a buy recommend pls do your own due diligence.


(manivannan.g) #439

My attempt to answer your question. Suven is in accumulation phase after an elliott super corrective wave. The chart shows bullish signal for sure, in any method. So overall is poised for breakout, but depends on market situation + fundamental improvements.

Elliott wave:

Ichimoku system:

The resistance level of 160-180 seems to be the rock bottom. If it goes below that would be v.bearish. If the 240 level is broken, then it’ll be out of the accumulation phase and the bulls will be back in action.

@Capsule91 pls correct me if wrong.


(Anuj Maheshwari) #440

Thanks…tht ws helpful


(Capsule91) #441

hi anuj…

excuse the late reply…

as @manivannan.g mentions his analysis , i have nothing more to add to that…

suven is one of the scrips i am very interested in technically for this bull run and i have mentioned about it earlier
Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals

the accumulation is complete, supply absorbed, the problem the stock is facing for the last couple of months is that the composite group is unable to launch a adequate bull market campaign, and the markup is not happening and the resistance is being faced repeatedly, so i dissected the market a bit here’

the numbers are the total volumes transacted within each swing

so looking at the trend, the demand look still in control, the 14.2 million volume driven swing failed to break out and got converted into upthrust, the downswing from that upthrust was on save volume as the previous downswing when the rally started 5.7 million shares…
similar pattern if u look at the upswing volumes

so there is no drastic selling forces thats coming in the system…
ans also the decline swings seem to go in a pattern… 5.6m to 0.8m to 1.7m on the first series…
then again post upthrust… 5.7m to 1.3m to 1.8m

whats coming is interesting…

one may say this is an ascending triangle forming… and the net volume is inflow and building up more accumulation in the strong hands…

so might remain rangebound for some time, and this is good rangebound market in a persisting uptrend channel…
[what i am watching with caution, is a downswing of any length in y axis, with heavy volumes, if that happens, the theory changes and there might have been distribution, which is unlikely, but still a possibility, (else what are stops for?)]
i am bullish here, accumulating each dips…
earnings, should be the time to watch for a breakout…

goodluck