Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals


(Capsule91) #402

sun pharma looking good…

change of character of the rally, followed by a support form the moving average,
this week closing to be closely watched, if closes above the support, the change of character will be further confirmed… might lead to a uptrend channel…

disclaimer… not invested, tracking, changed stance form bearish to neutral…


(PE_Ratio) #403

Yes, that looked like double bottom and that pattern worked and reached the target. But if you look at a broader picture, it looks like a double top with neckline around 280 range. Now the price is below the danger neckline. The chances of this double-top pattern working out now seems more especially because Tat Motors posted net loss of 1902cr in Q1. My target would be between 130 and 150.

Also, the last up-wave (that took the price to 600) looked like a truncated 5th Elliott wave. Usually after a truncated 5th wave, the correction will be huge.


(phreak) #404

Kitex daily - Highest daily close in 4 weeks and has also closed above 20 DMA.

Weekly timeframe shows that the next resistance is somewhere near 150-160 levels

A quick, large retracement looks possible. Am Ambivalent on the company’s financials, fundamentals and corp governance. Doesn’t mean a good setup should be missed. I see the sentiment turning post AGM which augurs well.

Disc: Trading position from last week.


(Capsule91) #405

base formation in minda corp…

disclaimer… will plan trade on breakout and phase d entry on lps formation


(sowrabh) #406

Bro consolidated loss is 1800 crore…also their standalone business has done well in Q1


(PE_Ratio) #407

It’s 1902.37cr loss attributable to the shareholders, not 1800cr. From which EPS is calculated (5.60)
3532cr, which I mentioned is Total Comprehensive Loss. I overlooked twice while posting the numbers last time. Should have read 1902cr.


(Capsule91) #408

continuation post…

bajaj corp supply absorption ongoing at last point of support

volume candle chart

disclaimer… invested and accumulating


(manivannan.g) #409

As of now, ICIL is following the chart. Seems like consolidating in the 80s (waiting for the next signal, the result… which will be announced on 3-Aug), would continue the upward move if the result is positive.

Also, if I’m not wrong, the 8 waves are done and the impulsive cycle is beginning. Pls correct me if wrong (I’m bit unsure about fitting the 1,2,3,4 waves as wave 1 & 4 are overlapping a little, but not more than 5%).


(Capsule91) #410

i have been tracking this since @PE_Ratio mentioned about it

and it does seem to be forming a base now…

@manivannan.g
this is the last redistribution , and the point and figure chart indicate a rotation up

78.6% retratecemnt of wave 3 and at the 100 month wilder moving avg seems to be some kind of terminal support from the price


from my indicators… this should be the base… start of a true uptrend might take some time though until the oscillators cross over and the volume macd starts in a uptrend , bullish divergence in both the black histogram and the vol weighted macd

disclaimer… no current position, tracking…


(manivannan.g) #411

Nice !! I’m waiting for the result, if the margins are flat then the cyclical has hit the bottom and we definitely should see trend reversal. If the margins are at still bad, then the bottom is bit nearer. The reason is we had good Southwest monsoon and northeast monsoon will arrive later this year. So definitely the cotton prices would come down, so the margins will improve. For me ICIL management is better at corp governance than other textile cos like welspun, kitex etc.,

This is definitely interesting, waiting for the result to make a call.


(PE_Ratio) #412

Auto Corporation of Goa -
Made these charts few months ago.

Zooming in the above chart.

This pattern worked out pretty well. Predicted that it would go down to 725. But it bounced from 760. That may be the bottom. If not, there may be one last leg of correction that would take it to 725/700 level and bounce.

ACGL is jointly promoted by Tata Motors. This stock came into focus when Electric Vehicles came into focus. ACGL manufactures the body for EVs. ACGL is part of Tata Motors electric bus and hybrid bus programme.


(Capsule91) #413

good one @PE_Ratio

it seems to be the bottom indeed

disclaimer… no positions


(Capsule91) #414

godrej ind.

beautiful base formation

disclaimer… not yet invested, tracking


(manivannan.g) #415

Chaman lal setia might have a bounce back, but expected to correct to 60. Not sure how correct is this. Pls have a look.


(Capsule91) #416

mahanagar gas confirms selling climax…


(Capsule91) #417

well, i have a different stance on this and i feel there is accumulation going on here…
and this is primary wave 2 of cycle wave 5, which has retraced to 88.6% level almost, thats pretty deep…

let me know ur views…

disclaimer… no positions, not tracking


(manivannan.g) #418

Cosmofilms is the second cyclical stock which I’m tracking next to ICIL. Cosmofilms margins were under pressure for a long time, this seems to be hitting the bottom. Just in time, promoters started buying (bought around Rs.5.64Crs worth shares), may be good indication that things are gonna improve.

SAST:


(manivannan.g) #419

Shouldn’t we consider the retracement from (B), instead of second wave next to 5 ? I mean, the B->C should be 61.8%, 78.6%, 88.6% Fibs right ? I’m just beginner, trying to learn the elliot wave :slight_smile: pardon the ignorance.


(Capsule91) #420

2 cases of excellent accumulation worth tracking…

emami and greaves cotton…

both i believe are at the exact same position in their accumulation phase, which is the phase d
the ultimate phase of the schematics…
and both faces the same challenge in their trading range…
none have shown the ultimate breakout change of character…

I track the fundamentals of greaves cotton,

management discussed Greaves 2.0 strategy, a 5 year plan to de-risk engine business by becoming fuel agnostic and reduce the share of engine business to 40% in overall revenue by growing aftermarket and other segments. In an effort to de-risk engine portfolio, Greaves is transforming itself into a fuel agnostic player. For this, Greaves has partnered with Pinnacle Engines of US for launch of CNG & Petrol variants and for Hybrid and Electric variants it has partnered with Altigreen Technologies of Bangalore.
Greaves has indicated that technology demo for Hybrid and Electric variants are
complete and further evolving of specs for the final phase of development is under
progress.
With Pinnacle it is planning to launch two engines one for 2 wheelers with
range between 110-115 cc and for 3 wheeler Greaves is planning to launch product
in the range of 200-240 cc which it believes would take about 2-3 years to bring it to
mass production level.
Greaves has signed with major OEMs for BSVI diesel 3W engine which is coming to
force from April 1, 2020.
the company launched two new powertrain solutions at the Auto Expo 2018 one of which
is a new family to multi-cylinder turbo-charged intercooled engines which are BSVI compliant and a lithium ion battery based ev powertrain for 3 wheeler
Engine business accounts for 51% of revenue,
Aftermarket accounts for 25% and rest all account for 24%.
.Auxiliary Power segment market share has increased
from 3.5% to 6.5% and has increased the range from 500KvA to 1250KvA.
In the farm equipment segment it has 45% market share in the Petrol/Kerosene pumps
and is planning for electric & solar pumps in near future.
Aftermarket accounts for 25% of revenues and the
portfolio can address 80% of 3W ecosystem with Greaves own parts and multi
brand spare parts as well. Greaves Care an asset-light service model aimed at
addressing complete service needs 3W & 4W. Currently 51 outlets are functional
and Greaves is planning to launch the service across India in a phased manner.
Management quantified the annual opportunity size for this segment at ~Rs. 25 bn.

AS of FY18, greaves has EBITDA margin of 14.2% , PAT margin of 11.3% , long term debt free, ROE-21.4% and RocE-18% , 916cr reserves and surplus, 238.4cr operating cash flow , and present market cap of 3571cr…

attached here the lastest investor ppt
http://www.greavescotton.com/php/media/brochure_files/Corporate_Presentation_30th_May_2018_external.pdf

the biggest concern to me is , any upgrade by customers to 4W LCVs might disrupt 3W LCV volumes which is the stronghold of GCL.

disclaimer… no position, tracking


(Capsule91) #421

@manivannan.g
i guess no, this correction should find support within the length of the previous impulse right?
so u draw the retracement level along the length of the impulse wave only…
that gives u one support…
another rule of thumb is generally a=b[most commonly] or 1.27A=B or 1.618A=B and so on in the fibonacci series [in percentage terms]…
that gives u another level of support…

but by far the best way is to count the internal waves of c and see where it can lead to, this is a corrective wave 3 , so it sud be a 5 wave structure down…
i guess 5 waves are done already of c…