Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals


(Capsule91) #382

Old sensex chart check…

sensex just broke out of the trading range of the wyckoff reaccumualtion schematics…

now in phase E Markup…

disclaimer… invested in kotak nifty etf


(Capsule91) #383

fake double bottoms???

a series of wyckoff redistribution in uflex…

meanwhile the fundamentals are not that bad , although margins have been affected mainly due to inflation of cost of raw materials [crude dependent business]…fy18 clocked ebitda margins of 13.1%in fy18 compared to 14.2% fy17 with concurrent inflation of 14.2% in the raw materials[q4 fy18 to q4 fy17 inflation was 19% and ebitda margin compressed form 13.5% fy17 to 12.3% fy18 ] and the price earning ratio is already at 6, some one seems still trying to bring the price even cheaper…
potential plays are …

1.Aseptic Liquid Packaging
Aseptic packaging is a growing industry at high margins (16-20% as per management) with only
one player in India Tetra Pak. The uflex plant for the same has been commissioned already and revenues are expected to start from 2HFY19.

hence the management guides that the packaging business volume should show 10% growth including the new vertical with improved margins 15% fy19[essentially putting the business mix back on previous track (optically atleast) after this input cost inflation took the margins down this year ] [q4fy18 ebitda margin was 12.3% ]

the current production capacity stands at 3.5bn packs. The management expects sales volumes to be in the range of 1.5bn-2 bn packs in FY19 and 3bn packs by FY20

2.The company is looking to expand the hologram business capacity at its
Jammu facility. The total capex is expected to be ~Rs. 150Cr and the
expansion is likely to be complete by Q2FY19

  1. The BOPET film market has shown a robust growth since Q2FY18 owing
    to the stable demand-supply scenario with growing demand and lack of new capcity or supply coming in , improving gross margins. The industry has seen an improvement in realizations and film prices. The company sees the growth momentum intact until FY21.

disclaimer… tracking, not invested


(PE_Ratio) #384

That’s not fake double bottom. Double bottoms or any chart pattern are usually successful in a longer time frame.



(Anuj Maheshwari) #385

So whts d trgt as per chart? Are we in bull phase? Thnks.


(Arun S G) #386

What’s the opinion on Tata Motors? Double bottom seemed to have formed more than 4 months apart at 280 ( Sep 2015 and Feb 2016), the stock doubled to 580 by Sep 2017, to yet again crash below the double bottom of 280 to touch 250 recently.


(Capsule91) #387

Looking at the US indices…

EAch of them have a wyckoff reaccumualtion, like nifty 50 and sensex have

price action seems to be positive in most aspects and rally should continue for the medium term…

1.dow jones industrial average


2.russell 2000

this one went through reaccumulation , completed it, went into markup and is agian forming a trading range consolidation it is unclear now, if it is a reaccumualtion or a distribution
3.s&p500

gap resistance hit but still a positive structure after multiple support tests and bulish candles in control of the trend… still in the trading range , no markup, in phase d of the wyckoff reacc schematics
4.nasdaq composite

another retest of support likely, but after the breakout of the trading range, the movement of price is doubtful and uncertain, bullish bars controlled the trend after breakout, yet, the demand hasnt showed up adequately to continue the rally, ensuring a need for retest of the supply at lower level… basic structure positive… should continue the markup …

one of the tenets of the dow theory is all indices should catch up and move in tandem…
here, clearly dow jones industrial and s&p are laggards and should be watched closely …

technically this is the 5th wave ongoing, after which a major correction is inevitable…

unless the laggard indices catches up, the corrective wave should be slow to become evident enough…


(Capsule91) #388

continuation of…

a classical reaccumulation schematic which is entering into phase c , and change of character is likely confirming the present spring


looking back historically, incidentally this was the same level of price action which formed a spring before the stellar rally of 2017, and equal response has been observed which strengthens the conviction…


(Capsule91) #389

crompton greaves…

good base formation on wyckoff reaccumaultion…

last to last day there was a huge volume surge and a back up retest of the support., followdd by a follow through

a position setup

disclaimer… not invested, tracking…


(Capsule91) #390

38423 for sensex is what i have for now, as a medium term target for sensex followd by another rotation / consolidation swing…

and yes, large cap index, have been in the bullish trajectory since april…
midcaps took more time to accumulate , and should line up with sensex and nifty soon enough


(abhimakk) #391

@Capsule91 This thread has been a delight to go through. I learnt a lot of things from here including the accumulation and different phases. Can you please share your technical views on Nesco as well. I have been holding it, based on pure fundamentals but would be a good idea to look at it technically. I read in the thread that the chart pattern was not very clear and will be more clear with time. Checking this as more time has been spent where it was not able to cross all time highs.


(Capsule91) #392

@abhimakk nesco went below the trading range to tests previous support and the test seems to be sucessful on volumes…

resistance should be encountered at the level of the previous climactic stopping action as mentioned in the chart in the 547 region…

how the character if the price action changes at that point will give significant clue about whats going on…

for now, the price action has entered in the over sold zone and a rally should continue to the resistance level…

also in the monthly chart there is a hammer candle formation at the ema of the bollinger band…
and rsi maintains support but the macd looks pretty bearish…

overall positive set up only for the short term …
yet its not evident if its a distribution or accumulation as this is phase b only, phase c is the one where its a disclosure what phase b was all about , so we have to wait for it…
the decline was definitely a show of weakness and i would be extremely cautious, also because in terms of Elliot waves, to me, it seems primary wave 5 is over and we should be in correction/consolidation in a range for quite some time…

personally, there are numerous other stocks in technically better positions…

mean while the fundamentals are still on track, although IT park 1 and 2 [2 in june 2019 schedule]being demolished, the earnings from the same should be balanced at least partial from ITpark4 start up in dec2018, hike of rental income of 15% from most customers, BEC although a seasonal business, but the growth seems intact from this segment, with addition increase in client base[10 more clients added i suppose in last couple of quarters??] and also the revenues from the F&B segments…

all the best…


(Capsule91) #393

BLs international

a tricky trading range

disclaimer… forms 6% of my portfolio now…


(Niranjan Shetty) #394

Punjab contract extended


(Agarwala) #395

Flag breakout in Setco Automotive Limited. Volume in breakout session is over 18 lakhs.


A little known automotive components company has set its eyes on 1000 Cr turnover and 170 Cr EBITDA in next couple of years. Equity base is 26 Cr. Do you find it interesting?
Disclosure: invested in today’s session stretching from 48 to 53.


(Capsule91) #396

nifty looking exhausted and gaping up…

correction likely…

[CORRECTION in the chart… ""oscillators yet to cross over in the OVERBOUGHT zone]
disclaimer… invested in kotak nifty etf


(Capsule91) #397

piramal enterprise

a wonderful case of accumulation where decrease in volatility and absorption is visually appreciable…
the resultant change of character i believe is under way, and breakout of the resistance should confirm it…
a bullish bar off the support of the trading range on volumes might be the genesis of a spring action oncoming…


(phreak) #398

I feel this resistance is going to be pretty tough to break as the top was made a year back and in the intervening period financials have deteriorated and so has the market mood. We may have a false breakout and retest 2400. Even if it does breakout, 2900-3000 range will be a pretty strong resistance so the risk:reward doesn’t seem very favourable.


(Capsule91) #399

currently i am avoiding rating agency stocks, unless capex cycle picks up visibly , and specially in a scenario where the net outflow is happening for the emerging markets …

yet, all the 3 focus companies have started accumulation…

disclaimer… not invested


(Capsule91) #400

@phreakv6
completely agree, but i would want to see what happens now as this is a important decision point for the composite group, if there is a change of character, there is going to be a mandatory follow through,
but if the resistance around 2675 in piramal is not broken , then the operators would go in for a shakeout to absorb whatever the weak hands have got well below the trading range , i guess, maybe lower than ur mentioned support, similar to what happened in ICRA chart i just posted in phase b…
thanks for the caution, i am waiting for the late entry here, if i see strength building up, as a trading bet only atm.


(Capsule91) #401

continuation of…

bhageria might test 296 to 300, planning longs there…

meanwhile chinese shut downs further has spiked up realizations in dye intermediate business, which has reflected in the q1 numbers, despite input cost inflation…

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/reactive-dye-intermediate-h-acid-para-ester-greatly-prices-bhavsar