Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals

That’s not fake double bottom. Double bottoms or any chart pattern are usually successful in a longer time frame.

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So whts d trgt as per chart? Are we in bull phase? Thnks.

What’s the opinion on Tata Motors? Double bottom seemed to have formed more than 4 months apart at 280 ( Sep 2015 and Feb 2016), the stock doubled to 580 by Sep 2017, to yet again crash below the double bottom of 280 to touch 250 recently.

Looking at the US indices…

EAch of them have a wyckoff reaccumualtion, like nifty 50 and sensex have

price action seems to be positive in most aspects and rally should continue for the medium term…

1.dow jones industrial average


2.russell 2000

this one went through reaccumulation , completed it, went into markup and is agian forming a trading range consolidation it is unclear now, if it is a reaccumualtion or a distribution
3.s&p500

gap resistance hit but still a positive structure after multiple support tests and bulish candles in control of the trend… still in the trading range , no markup, in phase d of the wyckoff reacc schematics
4.nasdaq composite

another retest of support likely, but after the breakout of the trading range, the movement of price is doubtful and uncertain, bullish bars controlled the trend after breakout, yet, the demand hasnt showed up adequately to continue the rally, ensuring a need for retest of the supply at lower level… basic structure positive… should continue the markup …

one of the tenets of the dow theory is all indices should catch up and move in tandem…
here, clearly dow jones industrial and s&p are laggards and should be watched closely …

technically this is the 5th wave ongoing, after which a major correction is inevitable…

unless the laggard indices catches up, the corrective wave should be slow to become evident enough…

continuation of…

a classical reaccumulation schematic which is entering into phase c , and change of character is likely confirming the present spring


looking back historically, incidentally this was the same level of price action which formed a spring before the stellar rally of 2017, and equal response has been observed which strengthens the conviction…

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crompton greaves…

good base formation on wyckoff reaccumaultion…

last to last day there was a huge volume surge and a back up retest of the support., followdd by a follow through

a position setup

disclaimer… not invested, tracking…

38423 for sensex is what i have for now, as a medium term target for sensex followd by another rotation / consolidation swing…

and yes, large cap index, have been in the bullish trajectory since april…
midcaps took more time to accumulate , and should line up with sensex and nifty soon enough

@Capsule91 This thread has been a delight to go through. I learnt a lot of things from here including the accumulation and different phases. Can you please share your technical views on Nesco as well. I have been holding it, based on pure fundamentals but would be a good idea to look at it technically. I read in the thread that the chart pattern was not very clear and will be more clear with time. Checking this as more time has been spent where it was not able to cross all time highs.

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@abhimakk nesco went below the trading range to tests previous support and the test seems to be sucessful on volumes…

resistance should be encountered at the level of the previous climactic stopping action as mentioned in the chart in the 547 region…

how the character if the price action changes at that point will give significant clue about whats going on…

for now, the price action has entered in the over sold zone and a rally should continue to the resistance level…

also in the monthly chart there is a hammer candle formation at the ema of the bollinger band…
and rsi maintains support but the macd looks pretty bearish…

overall positive set up only for the short term …
yet its not evident if its a distribution or accumulation as this is phase b only, phase c is the one where its a disclosure what phase b was all about , so we have to wait for it…
the decline was definitely a show of weakness and i would be extremely cautious, also because in terms of Elliot waves, to me, it seems primary wave 5 is over and we should be in correction/consolidation in a range for quite some time…

personally, there are numerous other stocks in technically better positions…

mean while the fundamentals are still on track, although IT park 1 and 2 [2 in june 2019 schedule]being demolished, the earnings from the same should be balanced at least partial from ITpark4 start up in dec2018, hike of rental income of 15% from most customers, BEC although a seasonal business, but the growth seems intact from this segment, with addition increase in client base[10 more clients added i suppose in last couple of quarters??] and also the revenues from the F&B segments…

all the best…

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BLs international

a tricky trading range

disclaimer… forms 6% of my portfolio now…

Punjab contract extended

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Flag breakout in Setco Automotive Limited. Volume in breakout session is over 18 lakhs.


A little known automotive components company has set its eyes on 1000 Cr turnover and 170 Cr EBITDA in next couple of years. Equity base is 26 Cr. Do you find it interesting?
Disclosure: invested in today’s session stretching from 48 to 53.

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nifty looking exhausted and gaping up…

correction likely…

[CORRECTION in the chart… ""oscillators yet to cross over in the OVERBOUGHT zone]
disclaimer… invested in kotak nifty etf

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piramal enterprise

a wonderful case of accumulation where decrease in volatility and absorption is visually appreciable…
the resultant change of character i believe is under way, and breakout of the resistance should confirm it…
a bullish bar off the support of the trading range on volumes might be the genesis of a spring action oncoming…

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I feel this resistance is going to be pretty tough to break as the top was made a year back and in the intervening period financials have deteriorated and so has the market mood. We may have a false breakout and retest 2400. Even if it does breakout, 2900-3000 range will be a pretty strong resistance so the risk:reward doesn’t seem very favourable.

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currently i am avoiding rating agency stocks, unless capex cycle picks up visibly , and specially in a scenario where the net outflow is happening for the emerging markets …

yet, all the 3 focus companies have started accumulation…

disclaimer… not invested

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@phreakv6
completely agree, but i would want to see what happens now as this is a important decision point for the composite group, if there is a change of character, there is going to be a mandatory follow through,
but if the resistance around 2675 in piramal is not broken , then the operators would go in for a shakeout to absorb whatever the weak hands have got well below the trading range , i guess, maybe lower than ur mentioned support, similar to what happened in ICRA chart i just posted in phase b…
thanks for the caution, i am waiting for the late entry here, if i see strength building up, as a trading bet only atm.

continuation of…

bhageria might test 296 to 300, planning longs there…

meanwhile chinese shut downs further has spiked up realizations in dye intermediate business, which has reflected in the q1 numbers, despite input cost inflation…

sun pharma looking good…

change of character of the rally, followed by a support form the moving average,
this week closing to be closely watched, if closes above the support, the change of character will be further confirmed… might lead to a uptrend channel…

disclaimer… not invested, tracking, changed stance form bearish to neutral…

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Yes, that looked like double bottom and that pattern worked and reached the target. But if you look at a broader picture, it looks like a double top with neckline around 280 range. Now the price is below the danger neckline. The chances of this double-top pattern working out now seems more especially because Tat Motors posted net loss of 1902cr in Q1. My target would be between 130 and 150.

Also, the last up-wave (that took the price to 600) looked like a truncated 5th Elliott wave. Usually after a truncated 5th wave, the correction will be huge.

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