Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals


(Capsule91) #360

ACrysil…
this is in addition to the previous posts about acrysil and tracking updates…

wyckoff reaccumualtion in phase c, likely suspicion…

some fundamental touches…



disclaimer… invested


(manivannan.g) #361

ICIL bounced from 4yrs low with good volume and bullish divergence. Headwinds (cotton price - thanks to good monsoon, destocking in US stores) will be easing in Q3 FY19 and the OPM indicates that the cyclical is near bottom, management is confident about good numbers from FY20, so the muted result is priced in. Personally would’ve liked if it bounced after forming a bottom or is it gonna make bottom around 80-100 range ( I have v.limited technical chart knowledge :slight_smile: )


(PE_Ratio) #362

Ashok Leyland crashed and touched 110. Clear indication that 5 waves up were over and made a peak at 165. This one is exactly moving as per this chart.
Fundamentally, Q1 was better YoY, but QoQ, it was below par. Also, the new truck axle norms may have had some cause for the fall. Though the peers fell like 2 or 3%, AL crashed. Should eventually go below 100. May take a longer timeframe to go there too.


(manivannan.g) #363

Small cap trying to find a bottom ? Getting some support at 7000. As per the divergence, could be too early to call though.

Might touch 6100 too if things gets ugly. Every one was talking about 7500s as base, and it touched 6900s comfortably… So, You never know!!).


(josephseby) #366

Hi
I try to draw parrellel lines to mark channels. The bull market in midcaps and smallcaps which started from the lows in 2013 has been nicely contained within two parrellel lines (channel) as in the chart. As per these charts both mid and small caps are at support zones(…and even there are signs of breakdown or it can be a blip due to extreme panic…that only time will tell). Positive RSI divergence is clear. A positive RSI divergence right at the channel support area is likely to work.

Here is another chart of relative strength of Nifty 500 to Nifty 50. I have plotted 20 DMA of relative strength to smooth the chart.

I am not sure about the merit of this chart. But if the RS is going to take support at the area, broader market will start outperforming next week onwards.

So I feel it is very crucial week for both mid and small caps w.r.to price is concerned and relative strength to large caps is concerned


(Capsule91) #367

Bhageria…

continuation …

initiated tracking position today, breakout of 2 levels tracking, 324 which is according to the gann chart in the previous idea[level3 resistance] and 372, which is according to the price action…


(Capsule91) #368

Midcap index…

The long wait for the bulls is nearly over…

possibility of a bullish upleg of the extreme bearish harmonic impulse
and the positions of indicators at the demand line of the up trend channel, indicates midcaps almost ready for one last upleg, the elliot wave 5 before the whole post 2016 bull run is over…

downside is as mentioned, upside is a preliminary one, a lot will depends on the impulse wave structure that will form, either the 5 waves will be up within the mentioned upside and formation of a classical double top or it might form a new high…
from the gann chart i have it seems a new high is entirely probable…

Numerous weekly charts of stocks across different sectors exhibiting oversold levels already…

H2 should be interesting… Q1 earnings if picks up should be a trigger…

meanwhile crude should soften gradually …
a technical view is mentioned on the same in this post…


on WTI crude… the same bearish formation

USDINR pair should be on a down trend after completing 5 waves…
correction should be atleast to 38.2% fibo level which is also the wave 4 region, if not may be more…

US 5 year and 10year bond yields seems to have topped out too, only a short term uptick left on the subwave 5 of the wave 3 completion…
5year yield chart provided here…


goodluck everyone, hope fundamental analysis and pf rebalancing is almost complete …


A Brief summary of the Micro/Small/Midcap Carnage
(pkk123) #369

Great charts Capsule. Can you also please indicate in what timeframe do you expect the double top or new highs to be made? I would guess this is possible only post the 2019 general elections because any big upmove till then seems difficult. Please advise.


(phreak) #370

Rain check :slight_smile: That Hidden bullish divergence at 170 worked but current setup looks more promising as the near-term resistance trendline in the falling wedge breaks. ATR decompression will happen if liquidity comes back post 200 levels.


(Capsule91) #371

Bajaj corp…

WIth plans mentioned in the q1 concall to conduct price hikes in fy19, and crude likely to soften a bit, margin pressures are likely to come down …
Bajaj’s key raw material, LLP, Light Liquid PAraffin, (a derivative of
crude) witnessed a price hike of 46%…
Expansion of distribution network, good monsoon and good rural demand of ADHO , should drive the margins and topline…Light Hair Oil category in rural grew 9.8% in value and 6.7% in volume terms in Q1FY19
rupee likely to appreciate in coming quarters, bodes well for the figures too
traction is expected in the NOmark cream segment also s trade pipeline was cleaned up for Brand restage in Jun 18.Company expects 40% of incremental growth to be fueled by
new innovation and launch which is expected in the next 18 months as guided my the management although A&P spends are expected to rise…
Also the planned increase in direct distribution would increase costs in short run, plan is to nearly-double its direct retail reach targeting to cover 540k outlets directly by end-Mar’19 vs 280k at Mar’18.
in Q1fy19, Volumes for its flagship brand BAD , Bajaj almosd drops, grew 11.2% record high seen in the past 13 quarters and outpaced the growth in LHO (+6.7%).
Domestic volume growth at 13.9% and retail-level offtakes,which are free of base and destocking-related issues, grew 10.2% during the quarter.
Guwahati plant capacity utilization stands at 70%.
Construction of Baroda facility to commence in Q2end and the plant will cater to one third of capacity needed for future. Guwahati plant capacity utilization stands at 70%.
Management sounded bullish about the business in the Q1 call…

Market seems to have been factoring this in
and hence the wyckoff reaccumualtion spotted in the charts…

wyckoff reaccumualtion

Disclaimer… tracking, no current investment


(PE_Ratio) #372

Nifty Midcap 100 charts of last 4 months.
First it looked like it took support at the channel formed between 1,3 & 2,4 and made bottom at 18,300.

But when it broke the bottom made at 18,300, was sure that it was going to be extended complex correction, and made this chart.

And it was on track.

Last few subwaves ended 500/600 points before the predicted point. So, bottom might have been made, also because most stocks seem to have hit bottom. Will get confirmation once it crosses the trendline (black line) at 19,200. If it doesn’t, it should make one more down-wave to hit 17,000 to make bottom.


Predicted wave (5) to top at 23,000 to 24,000 keeping in mind 18,400 as bottom for wave (4). But since wave (4) extended on the downside to 17,600, wave (5) may top even before 23,000, say between 22,200 and 23,200. And then crash down to 16,000 levels again. Probably that might coincide with the election time.


(Capsule91) #373

Timeline would be angones guess, but i am expecting the bull run to start before elections , around q2fy19…
And fizzle out in q1 fy20…
Whatever it is, we will know pretty soon…
I am not comfortable with the run starting post elections, because by then us market should become really bearish… So a 2018 rally looks more likely…


(Capsule91) #374

KAveri seed company

wyckoff reaccumualtion spotted…

presently the price action is trying to breakout of the lower creek level, it might turn out to be a sos and then another correction following the channel or a breakout…
either wise modest upside remaining…


with the indicators giving a mixed signal, oscillators being a longer term trend indicator which are still in the uptrendfar for top out, while other histograms showing a bearish divergence and fizz out of momentum…
i can infer, a sideway action or a minor dip before a breakout, should provide an excellent position for investors to enter on the dip…

Disclaimer… not invested, will continue tracking, plans to enter after correction comes post markup


(Capsule91) #375

SO for the oncoming midcap rally,

these are and planned to be new addition to my portfolio, based on accumulation patterns…

1.mayur uniquoters


2.Acrysil

3.torrent pharma

4.RBL bank

5.Bajaj corp

6.Suven

7.bhageria


(Capsule91) #376

Lupin …

wyckoff accumulation spotted

disclaimer… trading positions


(phreak) #377

TTK Healthcare - Stepping out of the downward channel. I am somewhat hopeful for the company post the TTK PDL (Skore condoms) merger early this year. Being a conglomerate operating in several segments, it is hard to be convinced of where the growth is going to come from although they operate in pretty lucrative segments of pharma, medical devices, healthcare products and foods. I like what they have done with TTK PDL after they lost the Durex contract, in terms of capturing market share of 10% with a homemade brand but business mix doesn’t give great comfort.

Disc: Building a position last few weeks based on technicals


(Capsule91) #378

Hikal …

tracking the schematics…

feels like accumulation, but not sure about it yet…

disclaimer… no positions, tracking fundamentals


(Capsule91) #379

Continuation of…

ACrysil spring formation , at the back of good q1 numbers…



disclaimer… invested


(Capsule91) #380

Continuation of…

1 more day to go to close the week but a morning start candle stick pattern is forming…

the volume weighted macd is way low at -50, implying the big upmove on volume has not yet set in…
the bullish cross over of the oscillators in the over sold territory with the red histogram above the 0 mark which is a signal for accumulation going on…

this is not even a complete reversal yet, and the trade is near about 10percent up…
seems a lot of upside left…

meanwhile, the bullish dollar in the q1 , should put the result in a good position to back up the movement…

disclaimer… trading positions


(Capsule91) #381

Vinati organics…

looks like distribution after 5 waves complete… now in wave 4 correction before the last motive wave up happens within the cycle…

whats exciting is , next couple of year, important new capacities are coming online …

1.Para Amino Phenol [paracetamol intermediate]
The total demand in India is fully met through imports (30,000 TPA).this is an import substitution opportunity[import source is china].interesting this is there is possibility of a cost leadership in manufacturing PAP due to its novel manufacturing process which is more efficient than the chinese . china is both the largest manufacturer and consumer of PAP, with a capacity of more than 1,10,000TPA, domestic demand being 49,000TPA only.the company has planned to manufacture PAP using catalytic hydrogenation of Nitrobenzene,[using platinum or palladium as a catalyst] a single step process with only ammonia as a byproduct . this catalytic hydrogenation method is not only more environment friendly but also cost
efficient giving it an edge over Chinese competitors…
here is a overview why the chemical process mentioned has advantages over traditional methods…
pap.pdf (360.8 KB)
88% of PAP is used worldwide to manufacture Paracetamol , 7% is used as a rubber antioxidant and 5% is used in dyes.
the planned capacity is 30,000TPA.
FY18 Sales/gross Block are at Rs 7.43bn/ Rs 6.05bn.
PAP project is expected generate sales of Rs 7.0bn (~95% of FY18
Sales)
RM- Toluene and propylene and catalyst[reusable]
2.Butyl phenols…
Vinati Organics plans to introduce 4 products -Para-Tertiary Butyl
Phenol (PTBP) , Ortho-Tertiary Butyl Phenol (OTBP) , 2,4-Di Tertiary Butyl Phenol (2,4-DTBP)
and 2,6-Di Tertiary Butyl Phenol (2,6-DTBP)
In India, currently, there are no manufacturers for butyl phenols.
Another import substitution opportunity
capacity planned- 39, 000MTPA
capex= Rs 1.5bn
expected revenue potential = Rs 2.0bn.
The project is expected to commission in fy20
RM-Benzene, nitric acid

3.The ibuprofen play
BASF, USA has planned a big expansion of Ibuprofen capacity and is expected
to put up an Ibuprofen capacity with a capex of EUR 200 mn.
BASF currently is a key customer of Vinati Organics to whcih is supplies the intermediate Iso Butyl Benzene…in addition Rs.1bn capex is in plans to forward integrate Iso Butyl Acetophenon [IBAP] production capacity which is another uptream intermediate of ibuprofen and is a value addition in the business, which might take more demand traction from the ibuprofen producing customers… IBAP startup is still not clear in term of time line but an estimate of Rs.1 to 1.5bn addition to tjhe operating topline is expected from this project…

4. ATBS play
2-Acrylamido-2-Methylpropane Sulfonic Acid which is almost half of the topline driver for the company and in which the company has 45% global share of the market, an interesting development has occurred with exit of another player, lubrizol which used to own 25 percent of the market share.
Meanwhile the capacity is being incremented by VO from 2500MTPA to 40,000MTPA with debottlenecking plus expansion…

timeline for the entire capex amount of Rs.8bn is to be completed by fy21 and then come online…

for now the wave 3 of the cycle is complete on the charts and presently wyckoff distribtion seems to be occuring, with markd down coming later all, in the schematics which is currently in Phase B , there is phase c and phase d to come before a mark down happens and i expect a climactic upthrust UT [or followed by another UTAD] to happen in phase c before formation of LPSY last point of supply in phase d before mark down happens maybe in next year…

supports for the future markdown around the 100 weekly wilder moving average and the 38.2% and 50% fibonacci retracement to be watched…
Meanwhile the bull traps in upthrusts must be identified and avoided…

disclaimer… tracking , no current investments