Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals


(phreak) #340

Reliance - Flag breakout on the monthly charts after a 8 month consolidation around 900-1000 levels. Moves here seem to be backed by several fundamental shifts happening in the company, along with the optimism post the AGM.

Disc: Invested post demonetisation


(PE_Ratio) #341

Sanwaria Consumer - Fundamentally so many issues, like Q1 audited results differing majorly from unaudited results, promoters selling, too much dilution etc.
But technically, seems to have bottomed at 10.5. After completing 5 waves up, corrected in ABC waves. Wave A = Wave B was at 10.5, which is exactly where the reversal happened.
So, this gives some indication that bottom may have formed.

Now going up in wave (3). Usually wave (3) is steep which actually is the case now. May take a slight breather and continue the upwards movement as result date approaches.

Disc: No interest.


(Capsule91) #342

KEC intentional on wave 4 correction…

wave 2 was a deep correction retracing almost to 78.6% retracement level , hence wave 4 might be slurred compared to wave 2…
the expected point of support has been derived from the point and figure chart and coincides in the cluster between 50% and 61.8% retracement level support and the level 3 [violet] of the gann square…

Disclaimer… not invested, tracking


(Capsule91) #343

rbl bank…

continuation of the previous post…

Disclaimer…not invested, left the accumulation opportunity coz of the impending cycle wave 2 correction and a lukewarm upside possibility on the current wave 5…


(aswin) #344

@Capsule91 This is just curiosity speaking and I’m not questioning your analysis at all:

Of the many technical setups you’ve analysed, roughly what percentage of the analysis have come true? I don’t know anything about technical analysis other than a basic idea about support and resistance levels. Seeing so many curves and lines (similar to polar co-ordinates) makes it look like dark art.


(Capsule91) #345

intrasoft technology…

price action looks like at support…

looks like a bullish B wave is starting within the correction…
might also be a fresh impulse, but less likely monthly oscillator is in negative cross and well above at least the median line, still, checkpoint in the gann chart mentioned to differentiate a B wave or a fresh impulse wave…

Disclaimer… trading positions and plans to average up if the trade goes in right direction


(Capsule91) #346

mayur…
continuation…

correction looks like complete almost, crossover of the oscillators at the oversold zone will confirm in the presence of the bullish divergence in the histogram…


disclaimer… completed investment for this fy


(sushilkc) #347

@PE_Ratio Dilip Buildcon bounced back to 800+ which is close to 38.2% of wave A as you had mentioned. How do you see it performing now? Do you see it going down now OR can it go back even higher ? Move from 800 to 600 and then back to 800 was quite swift…was it on expected lines per your assessment. Sorry for asking too many things… I am invested in it for more than a year and thus nterested to get a technical perspective.


(Capsule91) #348

mahanagar gas seems to have hit the bottom support…
wave 2 correction completed

Disclaimer… no positions yet


(PE_Ratio) #349

Yes, so far, the price action is as per prediction. From 900 to 600. Then 600 to 800. To me, it looks like only part of wave B is complete. One possibility for wave development can be like in the below chart. But corrections are the hardest to predict because there are so many patterns for correction. But the basic regular correction is the chart below. But we’ll have to see if it does actually. If it is irregular correction, B wave may cross even 1100. Let’s see.


(phreak) #350

Hidden bullish divergence. If 170 holds good, there could be a chance for base formation. (Missed posting this last night)


(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #351

IMHO, it seems a lot of distribution is still going on. Buying in this is akin to try catching falling knife. May be for bold traders, not timid ones like me. :grinning:


#352

I am zero in techs so posing a query on Tata Motors. I feel that it has bottomed out for the time being unless earnings start to falter. The stock is at decade low EV/EBITDA , even PE Seems reasonable. Sentiment is at worst due to JLR debt downgrade. Domestic large cap fund should rotate to domestic cyclicals at some point if growth remains ok. I am positive on their domestic business going forward and JLR has a long way to go. Is this stock poised for recovery technically?


(Capsule91) #353

nice…!

looks like the operators have started accumulating…

although this is too early to be sure, this might turn out to be redistribution as @devaki.tripathy mentions… but with the rsi in the weekly chart oversold looks like this might be poised for an area where accumulation can happen…
but then again looking at the volumes, there has been signs of absorption thoughout the current action after the selling climax has been reached no show of weakness a yet which is a feature of distribution and yet, no change of character also…
the current position of the price seems like a spring might be forming, we would know if there is show of strength sos at the 61.8% retracement level which is showing some properties of resistance @200 mark …

this is a life time cycle end for rain with 5 waves up, the next cycle will start , in between this correction can be interesting… for example, it can stall and go sideways from here like mayur uniquoters for years… or might as well start the next upcycle soon…
here only the fundamentals can answer…

to me a retest of supply levels at 150s which is the confluence of the yearly support and the 100week wilder moving average, is likely…


(Capsule91) #354

tata motors definitely is at interesting level
there are signs of bottom formation might be starting, but this is a wait and watch at this level imo…
monthly over sold levels approaching with kindoff bullish divergence in the histogram and volume surge at 61.8% retracement level…
an interesting watch… not sure at all, if the next wave up will start right away, rather a base formation is likely …


(Capsule91) #355

tata power…

in continuation to the previous post…


a bullish engulfing daily candle at the expected bottom…

the abc correction has wave a= c at the 78.6% retracement level

oscillators due cross over at the oversold zone with bullish divergence…

[this custom indicator is nothing but a merging of concepts macd with rsi,the resultant bit faster and little lesser lag than the mother indicators]

disclaimer… invested and additional trading positions initiated


(Capsule91) #356

an old chart for Brent…


(Capsule91) #357

bls international…

continuation…Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals

looks the the resistance formed lower and apparently the support is forming higher than expected
the down trend line was broken on the arithmetic scale and being retested again, within the kumo cloud green… a breakout above the 200day wilder moving average, would spell the action for a good rally coming up… addition some trading positions in the 160 range, and post breakout further averaging up…

post breakout resistances as mentioned in short n medium term…

disclaimer… invested and trading


(Capsule91) #358

ptc india…

likely bottom

disclaimer… invested and avergaing


(manivannan.g) #359

Minda industries forming cup and handle pattern ? For more than 2 months, the consolidation is going on. Apr-June auto sales was pretty good, IMHO, post results, this should breakout.