Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals


(phreak) #300

TTK Healthcare monthly - Long-term charts from 2010 to present. Currently resting on the long-term support trendline. There are some fundamental triggers as well with the recent TTK PDL (Skore condoms) merger. Being in diversified businesses though, its hard to say how the market will value the business. Protective devices make up about 23% of the topline and 28% of the bottomline. Negligible debt, 75% promoter holding and 135 Cr cash on a EV of 1100 Cr should cap the bottom at where the support trendline is.

Disc: Invested recently


(Capsule91) #301

The interesting chart of torrent pharma caught my eye…
Wyckoff re-acumulation seems to be underway…
The fundamentals need a serious look…

Some updates-
TRP filed 13 ANDAs in FY18 [us market],currently 46 ANDAs are pending for approval including six from Biopharma.,Overall it has 51 filings pending with US FDA including 5 tentative approvals,plans to file 15-20 ANDAs in the US in FY19 and expects eight to 10 approvals. Launched Hydrocodonsuppository from Biopharma portfolio in 4QFY18, To launch 8-9 products in FY19, Spent Rs 4.6bn in R&D in FY18, Unichem domestic portfolio has started growing post acquisition, Brazil was flat due to higher base and disturbances, single digit [5-6%]growth in Brazil in FY19 expected, To see strong growth in Germany in FY19,launched 17 products in Germany in FY18 and plans to launch 16 more in FY19, Expect 27% effective tax rate in FY19, Capex guidance at Rs 2bn for FY19 (maintenance capex mainly, believes most of the fresh capex has been done in FY18).
The chronic: acute ratio for the domestic formulations is 3:1…
Management expects significant synergies from the acquisition and have guided for the Unichem portfolio to exceed market growth rate in the near to medium term.

Disclaimer…definitely interested, learning the fundamental story here , no positions as yet


(Capsule91) #302

RBL bank has a reaccumualtion pattern too, but the way the bank nifty is positioned recently technically, i rather prefer to say away…
in RBL the phase D seems to be underprocess, with impending last point of support formation at the support level of the bearish harmonic formation…

Disclaimer… not invested , not interested


(Capsule91) #303

AB capital Bullish divergence…

Disclaimer… invested


(Capsule91) #304

mayur uniquoters-

wyckoff reaccumualtion inside the eliott wave 2…


Disclaimer invested


Mayur Uniquoters - wah kya stock hai?
(manivannan.g) #305

Natco pharma has made double bottom in a span of 3 months, triple bottom in a span of 9 months with strong support at 730 levels.


(Mehnazfatima) #306

a few weeks ago, there was a discussion on the fractal nature of markets / guppy multiple moving average system. …As already discussed earlier, I look at it as a volatility system and have found it to be extremely useful when used in along with Bollinger bands and super trend indicator for purchasing the breakouts…

pl have a look at the weekly charts of Sanghvi movers where the short term and medium term moving averages are bunched up together…indicating a convergence of price and value on weekly charts. This leads to a violent breakout or breakdown accompanied by a rise in traded volumes…on weekly charts the breakout level is close above 205…

another feature of sanghvi movers is that on daily chart too there is a bunching up of moving averages indicating a collapse in volatility and soon we may see a volatility breakout…the price for upside breakout is about 197 (as indicated by Super trend indicator)…pl have a look at the daily chart too…

Simultaneous bunching up of short and middle term moving averages on daily and weekly charts is a very strong indicator that there may be a sharp breakout or breakdown in the stock…while there is nothing much we can do in case of a price breakdown…but in case of a price breakout, I recommend a first purchase on close above 197 and second purchase above 205…and then ride the ensuing rally…which may swiftly take the stock price upwards…

as of now, on weekly charts Sanghvi movers downtrend was very appropriately described and contained by the Andrews pitchfork…as shown below

the stock price is now sticking to the upper median line…but once there is an upside breakout, then action may shift to another pitchfork which gives us a first upside target of around 254 when it reaches the upper median line…

once the stock price closes above 262, it finally sheds all bearishness and becomes bullish on long term charts too…so those who wish to play the wind energy theme very conservatively may consider buying sanghvi movers on close above 262…


(shamoilp) #307

Thanks Fatima for your technical view on Sanghvi Movers.

I am trader/investor and advised the scrip around 140 levels for long term. The price is well poised to have BO and should touch 300 plus level swiftly after which it will take a breather. I have shared my analysis on this link https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SANGHVIMOV/XX6vDq4T-Buy-Sanghvi-Movers-for-medium-to-long-term/

Happy Investing.

Regards

Shamoil


(Capsule91) #308

Nice analysis mehnaz…
Does that price action seem a bit suspicious to u though? Singular Big bullish bars followed by low volume declines dominating the weekly trend? Could that be a retail trapping by the smart money?


(Mehnazfatima) #309

Q4 result has been declared…from a loss of 26 crores in last quarter , sanghvi came out with just 90 lakhs loss in Q4…it’s very probable that next quarter they may show positive eps…we will know soon whether the market is happy with this result or punishes the stock…i would bet on an upside breakout.

I ask you to imagine a scenario…suppose a HNI wants to build up a big position in sanghvi and contacts a broker to supply the said qty…how would that get reflected in the price pattern…I would think that the broker would buy shares at a lower price and in a slow and steady manner and then when a goodish qty is collected then he will sell that to the HNI at a predetermined higher price…after that he would again start accumulating the shares at a lower level slowly…this would be repeated a few times…on price charts it will get reflected as a long green price bar with high volume followed by s,mall red bars with normal volumes…if you examine the weekly chart of sanghvi movers you will find the same price pattern…

We don’t know for sure as to what kind of story is being played out here, but it fits the accumulation narrative as described above


(Capsule91) #310

Yes, that makes sense… lets see how this one plays out technically…
Interesting thing the rectionary bottoming out action in the 130 region was incidentaly was a start of a motive wave on the previous way up…
That price range has got definitely buying interest… what is yet to be seen that the yearly pivot has been tested 2 times on this recent action and has been rejected in ths 200 area…
The levels of 262 which u mention is the break of the first yearly resistance, would spell a definite breakout above that…


(divyansh ) #311

Have squared off all my positions with decent gains. Bajaj finserv has now given a flag breakout. I am not sure if I m following the norms by posting swing trading updates. But the chart patterns in the nifty along with banknifty look encouraging for 2018 specially since now less people are expecting anything meaningful from the index. I would also do some digging and post why I think this might Happen with long term charts.
Best
Divyansh


(Bheeshma Sanghani) #312

After bumping along the 61.8% fib level , Kolte Patil had a breakout on the downside on 5th june on high volumes. It doesn’t look good for real estate valuations for sure.

Quite clearly, the change in accounting standards to project completion deferring revenue recognition further into the future and also de-recognizing past profits has created a punitive effect on valuations - as it should. In effect, profits dont belong to the developers until they deliver the project even if they have constructed 99% of the project and 1% is remaining. After RERA came into force, many delayed projects that were registered in RERA started giving extended completion timelines and even now 35% - 40% of the money is collected before the 1st slab is cast.


(PE_Ratio) #313

I wouldn’t take Nov 2017 low for calculating Fibonacci retracement (unless it’s a complete wave which can make sense even if it stands alone). Because it spent only a shot span of time in that price range. I would take at least Jan 2017 low for the calculation. I took the long-term chart (from 2009) for calculating Fibonacci retracement combined with Elliott Waves and the price has just retraced 38.2%.
Tweeted this a week ago.
image
With this chart


CMP around 245. Moving towards 50% now.


(Capsule91) #314

gold seems to have started the new leg of the bear market…


(Capsule91) #315

Sun pharma…

Not convinced to call it a bottom yet…

The US regulator has upgraded current status of Halol plant to Voluntary Action Indicated. The status of the plant means that the works of company are at satisfactory level of USFDA and issues in the company might have virtually resolved.The VAI status opens the opportunity of
receiving new approvals for US markets .While many approvals are expected in near term, most of those ANDAs will be irrelevant as older molecules are crowded with strong competition already , add on the price erosion. Most likely, it will not pursue majority of the molecules as management to pursue only ‚Äėprofitable growth‚Äô as it was observed in the case of withdrawal of co‚Äźpay arrangement of Absorica in US‚Ķ

the 5 waves were completed in the lifetime charts of the stock and then the company received warning letter and reduced the plant status to OAI (Official Action Indicated) in December CY15 after the FDA visit in October CY15, shortly after the correction started in the stock from mid 2015…

the company received Form‚Äź483 with multiple observations during the last two years

Now in the technical terms, the 61.8% level was tested twice n the weekly chart and on the second test the rsi started diverging…Along with it, the MACD merged with the signal for an apparently impending cross over…
the setup looks to have bottomed out …

But on a closer look in the weekly chart, this comes up

while there was a huge volume stopping action at the preliminary support[ps], followed by a upmove to fill the gap of the gap down bar forming the PS , and then the selling climax [sclx] on lower volume than ps and a automatic reaction[ar] following it stopped out at the 200week wilder moving average [darkest blue line] forming a horn bar…

what followed is atypical in a wyckoff accumualtion schematics… 2 upthrust [ut] both stopped out at the 200week winder moving average again… both times at high volumes…
this is a bearish picture
happening in phase b of the schematics[cause building phase]… prompts me to think this might be wyckoff redistribution and a B wave of the ABC correction that we are in since the last 3 years…
phase C would be interesting, i would be looking out if there is a spring formation or not… if so this might show foot prints of accumulation rather, but in my present line of thinkning i would expect a upthrust after distribution[utad] in phase c followed by a preliminary supply[psy] in phase d and then a phase e mark down…

nevertheless, there has been no show of weakness till now, which is also a feature of redistribution… then again, upthrust are rather a part of distributon, redistribution and less commonly reaccumualtion schematics, where the bullish momentum is high and the composite operators induce a stopping action vigorously to stop out the momentum traders to keep the prices low and continue accumulating , its almost never a feature of accumulation which happens at the bottom of a correction, as no momentum in the price action exists at such depth…

mean while, i hear noises from the media community very frequently presenting a bullish case for sun pharma ,often in excess… these are fearful indicators to me, which makes me think this might be truly a retail bull trap classic redistribution…

still, watching the price action under scope, phase c will tell where this schematics is leading to, a true bottom or a trap…

Disclaimer…not invested, tracking the fundamentals closely…
opinion expressed are my own interpretation based on conviction…


(Capsule91) #316

Mayur unquoters seems to be finding support…

bullish divergence at supports

Disclaimer… invested and averaging


(Capsule91) #317

at 0.618 fibo…
macd bullish divergence, impending cross over with signal, stoch rsi bottomed out, high volume stopping action at the median line of the down trend channel followed by a bullish engulfing candle… in addition to the points mentioned in the above post…

Mercedes final audit upcoming in sept and oct, opens up a huge corridor to the european auto market oem space…
TO Note… the cfo has resigned on 29th june…no reaction from the stock yet

expected downside possibility


Disclaimer… invested and averaging…


(Capsule91) #318

GNFC…

Significant tdi capacities coming online to induce probable competitive pricing…
No antidumping duty on sadara’s tdi and dow mentions india as a potential business opportunity for sadara
Increased risk of pressure on the margins from use of imported coal whose prices are on an uptrend and rising crude prices
No earnings visibility from ecophos…
much hyped neem product division continue to show muted contribution [well below management commentary ]
repeated gas leakage incidents sometimes with disastrous consequences sometimes minor…
Fertilizer segment under severe margin pressure with no revival visibility in sight in the short term…
makes a case for wyckoff distribution justified at these prices when the chemical division has reached the peak of its cycle …

Disclaimer… not invested, tracking fundamentals


(PE_Ratio) #319

Many stocks are correcting in ABC waves after completing 5 progressive waves up. Dilip Buildcon is one.
When it was trading at 925, posted this one that it took support at 200DMA and if it breaks that, it might lead to a steep fall and then go down to 600 (since many stocks that completed 5 waves up exhibited same behavior in the last 2 or 3 months).
image


Today it touched 599 and bounced back. Seems like it’s the end of wave A. If that’s the case, then it might retrace at least 38.2% of wave A on the upside in wave B, and then go down again in wave C.