Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals


(phreak) #1040

@edwardlobo - I used zerodha in the screenshot as you can see in the watermark. I have heard good things about tradingview from the people that use it. I find zerodha convenient for most things but it is highly inaccurate sometimes with OHLC and the prices are unadjusted as well so it is unusable in those cases. If you want to use tradingview without paying for it, I recommend using investing.com which anyway seems to use tradingview charts and its free.

The same chart I posted looks like this on investing.com. They allow saving templates and allow usage of multiple indicators without restrictions.


(Vinay Taparia) #1041

I think Cup and handle break out in RECL

image


(phreak) #1042

Saregama - Trading above the triangle today. Closing above 620 would confirm a breakout. I think results for Q3 should be quite good since it was the festive season. Reviews by month for Carvaan on Amazon as well points to a good quarter. Hopefully results wont disappoint.

Disc: Trading position from 550 levels

West Coast paper - RSI showing regular bullish divergence. RSI on the hourly is oversold. Promoters have been buying. Valuation appears cheap, probably nearing cyclical high but doesn’t look like there is much to lose.

Disc: Trading position


(rajeev kumar choudhary) #1043

Do you see coming upside in kanoria chemicals?


(divyansh ) #1044

I would agree with your analysis. More comforting or rather encouraging is the whole set up. Safari hasn’t corrected much and is maintaining the higher highs and higher lows pattern. The stock hardly seems to be affected by the small and midcap Carnage and hence can be called a out performer. The industry as a whole has tailwinds and almost all the players are expected to do well in the medium term. Technically as well as fundamentally this looks like a idea one should just ride on for couple of years .
Regards
Divyansh
PS…invested and forms about 10 percent of my portfolio . ( Technofunda bet )


(NamantS) #1045

I don’t see any RSI divergence in West Coast Paper. I don’t think what you have drawn in RSI is a divergence, It is just in oversold territory.


(Sarabjeet Singh) #1046

L&T risk reward favorable. Stock at crucial support levels.

Safe traders can wait for a confirmation of reversal because if this level is broken then downside could be harsh.

Disc : Have got a Trading position


(divyansh ) #1047

larsen has made a double top on daily charts with negative divergence clearly visible on the rsi. if there is a large tide on the upside then the trade might workout as the shorts will be forced to cover up. but if its a market which has mood swings like the one we were observing from past few weeks then according to me larsen might show us lower levels… i am waiting for 1360-1370 on this counter to go short for tgt of 1300 and below.
regards
ps. no current position


(EL) #1048

Has anyone done any backtesting excercise
I know its probably difficult to search for cup with handle on data although there are sites that give maths
I am wondering just short and long term moving average cross back testing on historic closing prices ?

I have downloaded data since year 2000 to 2018 and want a headsup or a pointer if someone has a code in python, ruby or r would really appreciate.


(Sarabjeet Singh) #1050

LT : Stop loss hit on Friday and the news is also out now…


(Amit Jain) #1053

The reason why the proposal was flagged down is that the company had too much debt on it’s books. Essential a buyback would be funded by even more borrowings. This is like giving dividends out of borrowed capital.

The flagging down, means LT has too much debt. Which is not good.


(kums17) #1054

Agree with the point. L&T is a major engineering and construction company. which always take borrowing to execute the projects. That’s the business model of the company. The total loan of the company stands at 1,23,553 Crores (D/E 1.94). But after paying an interest of almost 8093 crores, its still making a Net profit of 8103 crores per annum. In the present context, the 9000 crores may now may be used by the company to reduce its debt instead of using it for buyback. So I thought its good for the company though its a SEBI flaged action, if it happens that way. Its my outlook. Any comments?

Disclosure : Invested


(Pratik) #1055

Interesting handle formation in VIP Industries. Not too much correction or price volatility and tight-ish handle. Air passenger growth is the biggest hurdle right now in it breaking out. Plus the Q3 results are expected to be muted as impact crude price reduction will be lagged.

19%20PM


(phreak) #1057

Mangalam Organics - The psychology of the (deep) Cup. Nov 14th and 19th saw large volumes and both these days flirted with 560 levels. One of these days was before Q2 results and another after, both equally irrational. About 44k shares were delivered on Nov 19th, a bulk of it post good numbers. Most of these shares must have hit the market again today as holders who were in the red from the day of purchase to 3 months, seeing at its peak a 30% drawdown (it hit 410 levels) from then must have thanked their stars and exited. That might explain the 576 to 528 fall today and the subsequent strength when the selling abated.

It has formed a bullish pinbar and managed to close at a fresh 52 wk closing high on a day that wasn’t great for the broader markets or for itself. 1.37 lakh shares traded with a 93k delivery today is the highest since early last year in terms of delivery. It has however gotten to a P/E of 8 as of today. Unsure how much higher it can/will go as it is still a commodity stock with a management that is uncommunicative on what’s driving the numbers. I think conservatively can expect 9-10 levels before next quarter which would still be another 15-20% upside from here.

Disc: Invested/Traded in the last few months. I am no expert and I get it wrong as many times as I get it right which is nothing to go by and also microcaps like these can sway to the whims of a few individuals and technicals can be unreliable. Please do your due diligence.


(manivannan.g) #1058

HEG did a “dead cat bounce” moment and then on a free fall. Watch for the supports.


(manivannan.g) #1059

Some stocks that’s near the neckline, breakdown would bring further downfall, if they can hold, can see short term gains.

Sterlite Tech:

HDFC Life:

The breakdown could see IPO price levels.

ICICI Pru:

This could test all time low, can wait for some clarity.

Maruti
Though went below the support, it managed to hold, but on the verge of breakdown. If breakdown, the next support will come around around 5900-5850.

Disc: Not a buy/sell reco.


(manivannan.g) #1060

VCP Patterns:
Mark Minvervini’s VCP pattern is known to be a good breakout pattern. Its similar to the cup & handle pattern, when the cup & handle fails and if there’s a multiple handle like pattern appears while the contraction size reduced around half of the last contraction (something like first 20% contraction, then next contraction will be like 10-15% , then 3rd contraction becomes 5% and so on), Mark terms that as Volatility Contraction Pattern.

Contraction Ts:

Also, if one see such patterns in 52w high, then the uptrend is likely to continue. And he calls that as a super performer in infancy.

I’ve followed that pattern and gave a try at consolidation breakout, all of them worked with gains ranging from 5-14% and then saw some bearish signals and exited. Stoploss for these pattern are the level of latest contraction bottom.

Insecticides:
Exited upon evening star like pattern + RSI in overbought zone

Minda Corp:
After RSI hit overbought zone, stock struggled to move, again it hit overbought next in few days, so exited.

Alkyl Amines:

As anticipated, the breakout did happened, but the bad market pulled down. Didn’t buy as my order didn’t execute.

Aurobindo:
Expected to do another contraction, so entered at 710 and still holding.
Here the VCP setup is yet to complete, so need to be cautious.

Acrysil:
Like Alkyl, another one setup which got breakout and spoiled by bad market.

Disc: Once the setup are invalidated it may not work, Not a buy/sell reco.


(Praveen Shekhar) #1061

You have mentioned a lot of patterns and i agree with you, hitesh2710 and phreakv6. As i had pointed out in contrarian investing thread before also; sugar has done well from that time. Cement too as observed seems to be forming good base. Other names i’d like to add to ur list which would make techno funda picks for 1-2 years would be Indiacem, Strides, Glenmark, Dhanuka, Tata steel(provided a bit more upside surpasses like 490-500).

iNVESTED in all of them


(Praveen Shekhar) #1062

@phreakv6. I do not mean to sound obnoxious but since we both use investing.com charts for daily simple use, i suggest replacing RSi with STochRSI. You get crossovers slightly in advance to MACD cross which is very helpful. If using monthly chart with minor stochrsi cross, weekly always generates a buy which works very efficiently. :slight_smile:


(Praveen Shekhar) #1063

Bulkowski calls them ascending scallops. In effect all you need is a flat trendline at the top and and ascending trendline joing lows and you’ll have a ascending triangle. Whichever way it works. You’re right about downside crack nullifying the patter.