Avanti Feeds

sarmams · September 21, 2018, 10:52am

Thank you for the data. Few observations, not sure if I my thoughts are correct on this

a) this data comprises, total exports of all marine products (incl, fish, shrimps etc) to all the regions in the world?
b) if we see Jul data above, total exports yoy showed a decline. But, Jul shrimp import data by US showed almost a 20% jump in Indian export volume. Will wait to see August shrimp export figures to US from India (as info from traders and media articles points to a yoy growth).
c) I heard from traders that, shrimp prices are now firming up (though still not at 2017 peak levels).

Would be great to hear others thoughts and any on the ground feedback.

phreakv6 · September 22, 2018, 8:00am

@sarmams

a) Yes this data includes all marine products to all regions in the world but it is easy to filter and view just USA

https://phreakonomics.in/export-import/micro?startDate=2000-04-01&endDate=2018-09-01&currency=inr&commodity=31&country=&country[]=49&type=exports&consolidation=month

This is Marine Products exports to USA

In dollar terms, its much worse

https://phreakonomics.in/export-import/micro?startDate=2000-04-01&endDate=2018-09-01&currency=usd&commodity=31&country=&country[]=49&type=exports&consolidation=month

b) As you pointed out, there is volume growth to US but in terms of value, things are very flat/negative due to fall in realisation.

c) No idea about this

sarmams · September 22, 2018, 11:22am

Thank you. This makes sense. My thoughts/takeaways after going through this and monthly shrimp export data from various countries, published by US is as follows:

while we get a macro overview of marine sector from this data, actual business scenario for shrimp segment may be bit different. For ex, in June 2018, there has been a marginal decline in shrimp exports (yoy) from India to US. But the above data shows volume growth of total marine exports to US is 17% in June 2018 (which I guess is mainly due to rise in exports of other sea foods & fish) , which is not reflective of decline in shrimp exports to US. Marine exports from India include shrimps, various kinds of fish and other sea foods. Likewise , on the ground shrimp prices are slowly firming up (as per feedback from shrimp traders and ongoing festive buying season in US).
other important aspect-raw material prices. Soya prices globally have come down by at least 20-25% from their peak levels in April/May of this year. Similarly fish meal prices have seen a downtrend from their peak levels (if I remember, Avanti mentioned this during Q1 concall).

All in all, I believe green shoots are slowly emerging (though we may not see 2017 peak levels anytime soon). I may be wrong in my interpretation. Kindly do your own due diligence.

chetanb · September 23, 2018, 1:27pm

Shrimp prices of 30-count, 40-count and 50-count (the varieties which account for bulk of export from India) are all now at year ago level ie year over year decline is no more there. From the april-May bottom, shrimp prices are up 60% in INR terms - bulk of the rise has come in the last two months. Source: Shrimp farmers & processors in Andhra Pradesh.

manivannan.g · September 25, 2018, 6:52pm

Some positive news for the aquaculture industry:

aammiitt2 · September 26, 2018, 2:51am

As a result of the low prices and stiff competition with India, Vietnam, and Ecuador on the world market, Thailand’s shrimp production is set to slip to around 290,000 metric tons this year, from 340,000t in 2017.

Thai shrimp year-on-year export volume to the US in June dropped by 42%. Moreover, the export to European Union market, once a key market for Thai products, also has been declined since the cut off tax privilege under Generalized System of Preferences, or GSP, scheme on Thai shrimp in 2015.

The main challenge of Thai shrimp business from now is to control production cost to maintain competitiveness, as Thailand has been losing key customers to major competitors like India and Vietnam because of its higher cost of operation

nil_71 · September 26, 2018, 3:31am

For Avanti, the more important thing to note that, they have not increased the Feed Price for last 1 year despite increase in RM price as the farmgate price was low.

With 45% market share, they will have some pricing power to leverage…significant tailwind…

Tolaha · September 26, 2018, 4:01am

Avanti had earlier mentioned that they don’t necessarily increase feed price as and when RM prices increase. When a company that has almost half of the industry sales (in an industry with low capacity utilization) combined with increasing market share resorts to follow such a policy, it may be negative for itself in short term but could bleed a lot of the competition. This won’t affect the ones with deeper pockets like CP, Cargill etc but the smaller ones may find it tough.

aammiitt2 · September 26, 2018, 7:39am

Avanti is in commodities shrimp business where you hv to protect mkt share but hv little choice to negotiate a better price with customer. Only saviour is rupees depreciation or increased demand or supply constraints or operational efficency. CP focus is now more on premium or high value ended shrimp segment where there is more price negotiation with customer. CP understand that it cannot compete with India on conmodity kind of shrimp business.

nil_71 · September 26, 2018, 9:58am

Avanti mentioned, they don’t want to increase because Farmgate prices are too low to be absorbed by farmers. This is not by choice.

What I wanted to say, now while farmgate prices r returning, they may do it. Also Soya meal price may soften a bit , not to the level of 2017, since Soya production was decent in a tweet of people who follow Agri production closely

‘Production of oilseeds such as groundnut, soyabean and castorseed is estimated to increase 5.66% over the previous year to 22.19 million tonnes with soyabean production higher but groundnut is down.’

chetanb · September 27, 2018, 12:50pm

SHIV is also spreading to Vietnam, which has emerged as a large volume producer of Shrimp. This should help Indian Shrimp sector.

ajay81 · September 29, 2018, 5:59am

India – which has been the growth success story in shrimp farming over the past few years and is aiming to produce 1 million metric tons – will remain around 600,000t until 2020, according to the forecast.

"Production in India increased substantially through 2017 but it is expected to remain stable during 2017-2020," said Anderson. A drop in 2018 Indian production, driven by low prices and disease problems, was also forecasted at the recent Aquaculture Roundtable Series, or TARS, conference in Chang Mai, Thailand.

chetanb · September 30, 2018, 10:01am

ap_21 · September 30, 2018, 12:30pm

tsunami in Indonesia will impact their exports ?? is it an advantage for Indian Shrimp exporters?? Any idea?

SlownSteady · October 4, 2018, 3:01am

sarmams · October 5, 2018, 2:09pm

August 2018 US export figures below. I think, festive season buying and older stock being used up in prior months has led to higher export volumes to US from major countries in August 2018. July 2018- total export volumes to US are 55 952 MT and in August there has been a 20% rise. Indian exports continue to rise (17% up YTD 2018 compared to 2017 ).

https://www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/apex/f?p=169:2:::NO:::

hnk_so · October 7, 2018, 6:17pm

Any idea what is raw material price changes in July-sept 18 compare to 17?

aammiitt2 · October 8, 2018, 5:55am

https://q8shrimp.com/index.php/2018/10/05/august-us-shrimp-import-volumes-break-downward-slide-but-value-still-dropping/

The US imported 66,843 metric tons of shrimp in August 2018, 8% more than the 61,918t imported in August 2017, according to the latest data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This after year-on-year declines in May (-7%), June (-8%) and July (-8%).

The overall value of shrimp imports was still way down, however. The US spent $552 million, or $8.24 per kilo, in August 2018, compared to the $610.5m, or $9.85 per kilo, spent during the same period in 2017.

The price per kilo has been sliding steadily for some time. Note the average prices paid for shrimp in April ($9.45/kilo), May ($8.95/kilo), June ($8.79/kilo) and July ($8.45/kilo) based on the NOAA data.

India sent the US 25,888t of shrimp, 39% of the shrimp the US imported during the month and 13% more than the 22,845t it sent the US in August 2017.

Overall, India remains ahead of its 2017 clip, too. In the first eight months of 2018, India sent the US 150,841t, 17% more than at the same point in 2017.

Meanwhile, the detection of shrimp haemocyte iridescent virus (SHIV), a new kind of virus, at very low levels in China and Thai land, is expected to push shrimp exports from other countries, including India, Ecuador and Indonesia.

On the bright side, the rupee has depreciated against the US dollar, which could lead to more US imports.

Disc: Avanti is significant part of pf.

KC1986 · October 9, 2018, 8:59am

hnk_so · October 10, 2018, 3:24pm

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