There is one more interesting pattern here. Remember that one year with poor marine product exports in the 9 good years i.e FY16? Observing that year closely throws some interesting parallels.
This is how it transpired.
Slight degrowth in Q3 and Q4 FY15. Big degrowth in Q1 and Q2 FY16. During that period, between Sept 2014 and June 2015 - The price (stock price i.e) went sideways (Rs.300 levels after falling from a high of 360 - i.e 20% down). In Aug 2015 it started going up and almost doubled in no time (Rs.660 levels) - Probably in expectation of a good Q2, since Q2 and Q3 is where bulk of the business is.
Before the results, in August promoter sold some shares.
Coming to current year, there is actually no degrowth yet but there are signs of it coming in export data and in the news cycle. Stock price has moved sideways since November. Fallen 20% from highs on average just like 2015 but mostly sideways considering the big runup last year. Promoter has sold shares, this time a lot more than last.
A bulk of it if you notice between July and October, near the peaks.
So when results came out in Oct 2015 for Q2, how did the stock react?
In 3 months between October '15 and Jan '16, it fell 50%. To be fair Nifty fell 10% as well during that time. Did Avanti perform poorly in FY16 because of the drop in exports? Not really. They performed poorly in comparison to their past numbers i.e from a breakneck 80-100% topline growth, it fell to 20% topline growth and a 25% bottomline growth but that was enough for the market to punish the stock quite badly. However, FY17 turned out to be phenomenal and those who bought it in that fall today have made good returns. So while Avanti might have it in them to weather the storm in case exports decline or moderate in growth in FY19 due to their brand and the non-commodity nature of their feed business, the market might react quite negatively very quickly going by the past trend.
Just after I posted noticed one more parallel out of a pure hunch
They had done a similar split!