Thanks mukund.
Sales growth of 11.61% for the May month. Which is 2808 Vs 2516.
For April to May period itās 5211 vs 4766 which is 9.34% growth.
In my opinion, decision on this one is getting very tricky for the following reasons.
)- Growth is slowing down from range of 18-25% to the range of 10-15%
)- Valuations at ~14 PE are neither expensive not really cheap in view of valuation of market leaders in auto sector.
)- Dealer addition at 8 (179 reported in Feb concall Vs 187 mentioned in website) for last 3 months is brisk.
)- Companies position in the market (like 40% of business still coming from a single state) gives hope for a possibility of stronger growth for few more years to come.
)- Fact that, the company did so well in the downturn and now there are talks of economic recovery also keeps me positive.
)- Company had āhopeā of doing doing 50K unit in current year. This is not exactly a great start to achieve that 50K.
)- So may be this is a good time to add in view of growth yet to come ? or is it a good time to reduce due to slowing growth ?
Views welcomeā¦
Hello,
Vijay kedia has sold over 39000 shares from his holding last week in open market.
http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/Atul_Auto_Ltd_310514_SAST1.pdf
@Raj Panda, may be this explains the 3 times volume than usual in last week.
you are correct, but i donāt think it makes a material difference. Sales have increased by 60 crore and debtors should have increased by 1.2 crore (assuming 2% of sales). So possible level of aggressive accounting is about 5 crores. Total sales increased by 60 crores and so 10% of sales growth is possibly overstated.
It could be that the company is giving larger credit terms to buyers rather than misstating revenues.
forward.This
Hi
Can you please let me know where we can get the con call dial in number details for other companies.
Thanks
Shaik
Hello,
I was just going through Atul Auto thread and found some news linksā¦ Now ICICIDirect has come out with a research report on Atul Auto with target price of Rs. 565. They are banking on increased dealership numbers, petrol engine based product and Export theme. As per the news link, the management is expecting exponential growth on Export front when it comes into play.
Promoters are pushing the Dealership effort by collaborating with IDBI.
http://www.rushlane.com/atul-auto-idbi-bank-sign-mou-12118282.html
Seems like Atul Auto is gearing up for late 2 to early 3 stage on Valuation stage model devised by Donald, Hitesbhai and Utkarsh patel.
Cheers.
Atul Auto Ltd has informed BSE that a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Company will be held on June 26, 2014, to consider and approve the sub-division of nominal value of Equity Shares of the Company.
http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/ann.aspx?scrip=531795&dur=A&expandable=3
Report from Centrum Security on Atul Auto with price target of Rs 640. could not upload the file as size is larger than 100MB.
Report from Centrum Security on Atul Auto with price target of Rs 640. could not upload the file as size is larger than 100MB.
Hello,
Atul Auto has released sales figure for month of June todayā¦
http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=7094406d-1777-40c0-88cb-c9199ea70ff4
total number of vehicles sold in June 2014 is 3222 in comparison to 2802 in June 2013. growth of 14.99%
Hello Everybody,
Just read some good news about Atul Autoās Expansion plan.
Cheers!!
Atul Auto announced result today. while generally number are good, I am curious to know what is source of other income of Rs 5.56 Cr during the Q1FY15 which was Rs 0.79 Cr in Q4FY14 and Rs 0.60 Cr in Q1FY14. That was a major contributor to growth in profit and depending on nature of same we can estimate whether this is normal or one time. If any member can throw light on same, It would be very helpful.
Dhiraj
HDFC Mutual Fund today bought 300000 lakh shares of Atul Auto from Vijay Kedia in a bulk deal @ 615 Rs. per share.
http://www.bseindia.com/stock-share-price/stockreach_bulkblock.aspx?scripcode=531795&expandable=7
| Acquisition of land for capacity expansion | 09 Sep 2014 15:11 | |
| Atul Auto Ltd has informed BSE that looking into the upward momentum of growth of business; the Company has been exploring various options for capacity expansion. As a part of expansion strategy, the Company has identified approx. 70 Acres of agriculture land near Bavla in Ahmedabad district (Gujarat). Further, the Company has acquired approx. 34 Acres of land of total area of approx. 70 acres. Source : BSE |
||
Investing in Atul Auto has been a rewarding experience. It has been a 5 bagger for me. However @ Rs815 it trades at 30x FY14 EPS. Isnāt that too much for a company with a market cap of Rs894 crs. In FY13 company grew EPS at 10% and 17% in FY14. Can it grow 30%+ in the future?
Views invited from esteemed VPs. What do you do in situations like this, " Company and stock has done well. Stock is expensive. But prospects have not deteriorated. Should one hold on or sell. If one keep selling stocks you will never get multi baggers like CRISIL or Titan or Gruh right"
Put another way. When should one sell? The question is relevant because it seems like a lot of mid and micro caps in India seem to be in the bubble zone.
Someone on this forum showed a reverse DCF method, which I think is good to evaluate how many future years profit, the current market price is factoring in. Search this site for āreverse DCFā and apply the same to this/any company.
@Venkatesh,
If you have better options available with high conviction then you can consider partially offloading your position otherwise I would advise against selling your position especially winners in this bull market as it may surprise you on positive side. By any valuation method, stocks like Astral, Cera, Page, Atul etc. would look like expensive but donāt sell it just now when the bulls are back. Human System is more than just numbers. You have many factors in your sides but valuations.
Ultimately, I would say, Itās your opportunity cost, which should determine your buying or selling decisions. As Bomi suggested, there is already a thread where you can find heavy discussion on the subject, can to through it and take your call.
Hi bomi,
I did the reverse DCF using 2-stage DCF and current growth rate implied in the price is around 40% (for year 1-5) and 10% (for year 6-10) and a discount rate of 13%(that I keep for small caps).
NOW the main question is do you see the sales getting doubled from 430 in FY14 to 860Cr in FY18 and profits quadrupled from 30Cr to 120Cr. It also implies that they need to double the NPM from 7.9% to 13.9%. As they have not increased the prices in last 3 years and NPM are in the range of 7% to 8%, it looks optimistic.
It can grow in 20-30% range and Fair price should be in the range of 200-300. I think most of the positives are priced in and have offloaded part of my holding (entered @ 80 and then later @ 160) and am waiting it to correct to 250 levels.
Regards,
-Nitin
I see a stock split on Sep 11. Credit for additional shares has not reached my demat account. Have folks here got the credit?
I have received the post split shares