Ashiana Housing - Banking on Tier II and III towns!

(piyush sarawagi) #162

Hi sir,
can you please help understand, how timely delivery of project and reputation of a builder will help a customer to get loans at a lower interest rate from banks?

(Mridul) #163

Pre-tax operating cash flows were negative at INR 23.8 crores versus positive Rs. 9.4 crores in quarter one of the current year. Delay in collections putting pressure on cash flows. However, we expect full year cash flows from operations at a pre-tax level to be positive.

From overall concall, it seems they have been struggling to offload their inventory especially in Bhiwadi.

They want to grab some land parcels as they see land prices getting reasonable.

Overall not very encouraging concall.

(Mehnazfatima) #164

Ashiana appears to have formed a bottom and is on the verge of a breakout. Just have a look at the daily chart.

If we look at the monthly chart, the stock is showing adefinite bottom formation. In the next few Months the stock appears to be headed towards 240…330

(gaurangvalue) #165

ICRA has reaffirmed the long-term rating at [ICRA]A (Stable) (pronounced ICRA A) for Rs. 50 crore fund-based limits of Ashiana Housing Ltd from Bank. The outlook on the long-term rating is Stable.

(mahesh112) #166

I want to know why Sanjay Bakshi and Ashish Kacholia existed from the Ashiana Share? I want to know, what they know that other investors don’t know?

If anyone have any clue, please share here.

Disclosure: Invested and planning to increase as and when opportunity come and i will get right facts they will encourage me to invest.

(goyal.neelesh) #167

Haven’t seen any information yet regarding Q4 conference call by Ashiana Hosuing. Its already been a week since the results came. Is anyone aware when is it or if they have discontinued doing conference calls?

(Praveen Gramle) #168

it seems every Q4 they conduct analyst meet hence no conference.

(Alok Bhola) #170

(KunalKothari) #171

Analyst meet in Mumbai today, anybody attending?

(saurabh shankar) #172

When a home loan is approve the bank undertakes 2 risks 1) on the borrower to repay 2) on the builder to complete project on time. Cause if builder doesn’t build then if borrower says i can’t repay bank will find it very hard to liquidate the asset.

So better builder with known project execution get tie-ups at lower rates.

(Alok Bhola) #173

(Alok Bhola) #174

The Area Booked (Ashiana + Partnerships) peaked in FY14 at Rs 648 cr and has been consistently declining since, being a mere Rs 217 cr for FY18. The figure for Ashiana (excluding Partnerships) is even lower at Rs 154 cr. As the revenue tracks bookings with a lag of 1-2 years, the high bookings of FY13 to FY15 were reflected in high revenue figures for FY16 & FY17.

The revenue is expected to fall drastically over the next 2 years (FY19 & FY20) reflecting the low booking figures for FY17 & FY18. Add to that the fact that residential real estate seems to be on a multi-year decline (and Ashiana is a pure residential play), it won’t be surprising if FY20 revenue is half (or even less) than the already low FY18 revenue. The impact on bottom line would be even more drastic.

Keeping in view the above factors, Ashiana definitely seems to be trading at extremely rich valuations. I personally would not consider investing at more than half the current price, unless something changes drastically.

(axiskumar) #175

They started thinking differently…Kids comfort …which in unique in nature…total unsold iventory is 50 % of entire life time company sold inventory ( 35 yrs )…

They have land bank which can have saleable sqft around 80 Lk SQ feets…

Realestate in bottom out…see how many unorginazed players out of busness now…or joining hands with orgnized players like ashiana…

This is already wintnessed in case of ashina…their recent parships in pune and jaipur are with kind of unorgnized players…this shows…some or other day…things will go to organized players like ashiana…so tell me one company with debt/equity less than 1…and have a future like this in this area…

I dont find even single company with these numbers and ethical values…not even single company…

(Harshit Goel) #176

Ashiana Housing FY18 Annual Report Notes

Companies AR was a good read. They have talked in detail about the real estate markets they are present in. Prospects seems good for realty markets in Chennai, Jaipur and Gurgaon with unsold inventory going down, Bhiwadi real estate market has too much unsold inventory. Ashiana has good inventory levels but very few projects are scheduled to be completed in FY19, with majority of the Ongoing Projects are scheduled to be completed in FY20. Following are few highlights from AR.

  • On the execution front, we clocked an EAC (Equivalent Area Constructed) of 8.16 Lakhs sq.ft (AHL: 6.39 Lakhs sq.ft and Partnerships: 1.77 Lakhs sq.ft). The reduction in area constructed is in line with our commitment of on time delivery and will also help us reserve cash for new land procurement. We delivered 12.69 lakh square feet (AHL: 8.91 lakh square feet and Partnerships: 3.78 Lakhs sq.ft), 526 units resulting in a top line of 334.92 Crore and a bottom line of38.23 Crore.
  • Revenue from other real estate operations increased from Rs. 35.12 cr in FY17 to Rs. 44.12 cr. in FY18, an increase of 25.63%. This represents income from maintenance and hospitality.
  • The company registered a sales volume (area booked) of 6.93 Lakhs sq. ft. in a sluggish market where customer sentiment continued to be weak. The average realisation price decreased from 3,234 in to 3,135 in FY18
  • After a subdued year in terms of launches, we have several new project launches in the forthcoming year in Jaipur, Jamshedpur and Pune.
  • In the last two years there has been slowdown in sales in the industry resulting in lower collections. Further, we had committed construction on our already launched phases in various projects. Both these factors led to negative operating cash flows.
  • However, we are expecting cash flows to turn positive in the year 2018-19 for the following reasons: Improved sales with significant contribution from build inventory which gives accelerated cash flows & Reduced construction due to lower commitment in line with slower sales in the last two years.
  • The unsold inventory has started to decline and we see improvement in demand and supply mis-match.
  • During the year we commenced deliveries in Ashiana Shubham Phase I, our project in Chennai. After a healthy response to phase I (wherein we sold 130 units out of total 144 units), we launched Phase II also and future pipeline includes two more phases.
  • Ashiana ventured into Sohna, Gurugram by launching ‘Ashiana Anmol’ a Kid Centric Home project. Possession of Phase-I of “Ashiana Anmol” is next year and the future pipeline includes Phase II and III.
  • During the year the company has completed and recognised revenue of Vrinda Gardens (Ph II), Ashiana Umang (Ph II & III) and Gulmohar Garden (Ph V & VA) in Jaipur, Ashiana Surbhi (Ph IV), Ashiana Nirmay (Ph I) in Bhiwadi, Ashiana Shubham (Ph I) in Chennai and Ashiana Anantara Aries in Jamshedpur. Area delivered for revenue recognition was 8.91 Lakhs sq. ft. in AHL and 3.78 Lakhs sq. ft. in partnerships.
  • Recently, we have created the concept of Kids centric homes wherein we provide best environment for progressive learning/development of children by leveraging our strength in design and maintenance.
  • We have identified Bhiwadi, Jaipur, Gurgaon, Chennai and Pune as our key focus markets. We continue to scout for new opportunities in these locations except Bhiwadi.
  • We raised debt of Rs. 100 Crore from ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund in April, 18. For long term growth capital, we have signed a deal with International Finance Corporation (IFC) to co invest in new projects to the tune of 150 Crore matched by a contribution of225 Crore by Ashiana.
  • Jamshedpur Land: Entered into a Development Agreement for development of a ‘Regular Group Housing Project’. This project has 3.50 acres (approx.) of land with saleable area of 3.25 Lakhs sq. ft. (approx.) .The land for the proposed project is situated at village Mouza – Pardih, JNAC (Mango), PS Mango, Town Jamshedpur, Dist. East Singhbhum, Jharkhand .
  • Pune Land: Entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with a Pune based developer for development of a ‘Group Housing Project’, on 19 acres (approx.) of land parcel situated near Hinjwadi, District Pune, Maharashtra on revenue sharing basis. Expected saleable area would be 12.5 lakhs sq. ft. to 15 Lakhs sq. ft. (approx.).

(distilled_feni) #177

(Harshit Goel) #179

Latest Credit rating report of the company, repeating most the things said in the Annual Report 2018 of the company.

(rollnball) #180

resultss just got out

(Kumar Saurabh) #181

After strong reversal in H2FY18 by quality real estate players n bookings velocity, Q1 FY19 adds further hope for trend reversal. Last full year , ashiana did bookings of 6.9 lalh sq feet. This single quarter is 2.8 lakh (the peak and trough being 22 lakh to 6.9 lakh in cyclic real estate industry). With almost 10 lakhs sq feet of inventory , expecting them to completely clear it by F19 or max q1Fy20 which means almost 10 lakh sq feet ,good 60% yoy growth. Not reading much into PAT nos though it looks rosy as revenue accounting does not make sense to look at quartely p&l numbers. Disc : Invested n accumulated in last 3 months

(goyal.neelesh) #182

Got an email from Ashiana Housing about upcoming price increase happening in Ashiana Town, Bhiwadi on 12th October. Bhiwadi has been Ashiana’s biggest market and plagued with over-supply in the last few years however, in my view most of the other projects have been stuck with no construction going on due to liquidity issue and dubious quality of builders. While the bookings in Ashaiana town have been encouraging in the last 2 quarters, the price increase after a long time seems like the first credible sign of demand coming back in a ‘no new supply’ market. Ashiana’s ‘kids centric theme’ and a school might also be paying off. I’ll watch this space keenly. Views invited.

Disclosure - Invested

(vivek bothra) #183

Good signs, The company’s faith is tied to Bhiwadi so this is a good development. Some recent thoughts captured here