ValuePickr Forum

Are we headed towards a credit crises?

Wild swings and sharp declines in share prices are reflective of extreme fear and nervousness in the investing community. Any delay/ downgrade/ default/ distress can accentuate debt loaded counters. No prizes for guessing which institutions have the highest amount of debt. This risk is amplified amongst financial services firms which are, in any case, highly levered and have capital structures which ensure that the organisation collapses like a house of cards. Successive failures of IL&FS, DHFL, Reliance Capital and Indiabulls (who next??) has started impacting banks and depositors who have lent money to them besides leading to contraction in the the broader economy. This protracted credit freeze can have a debilitating impact on the solvency of all NBFCs.

RBI, in its Financial Stability Report published last month, has tried to spell out risks of a contagion (Extreme stress test arising from failure of Top 5 NBFCs would result in in systemic risk and closure of minimum 7 banks), the RBI has surprisingly refused to dwell on reasons / factors which might drive these institutions to such failures besides blaming the entire issue to liquidity . One wonders if the regulatory authority (and by that token the Central Govt) prefers to put its head in the sand rather than address market failures head on. No wonder the governor does not intend to conduct any AQR in the NBFC space for fear of the rot coming out.

In the meantime, skeletons like CG Power and Cox & Kings continue to tumble out of the cupboard leaving investors to run amok and exit the markets en masse. Is india staring at a systemic failure and post Lehman type credit crises?

Is Asia heading toward debt crisis MC Kinsey report, with reading.

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/signs-of-stress-is-asia-heading-toward-a-debt-crisis

ILFS, CG power, etc were frauds bound to fail. The sooner they fall, better for the economy. DHFL and indiabulls too, should and will, fail if the allegations against them are true. Excess liquidity kept these frauds alive. Banks which could not manage such risks and kept pouring economic resources into such frauds deserve to be replaced by their better managed peers. Let creative destruction of market take its course. No need to panic if you are invested in sound business as they may now have a larger opportunity.

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CG promoters were always considered to be chor by the market participants. So no suprises on this recent fraud which has come to light
Only way to protect is to stick with clean management, that is why some companies have so high valuations. In india we dont just overpay for growth but for good minority shareholder friendly promoters. Also some sectors have more incidence of fraud like NbFC/Banks, real estate, education, jewellery. Better to stick to leaders like HDFC, Godrej Property, Titan etc in these sectors.

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i may not be expert i my opinion but when one is posing some question one must have facts and figures in hand to have argument in support of the belief Marely reading some random report should not be the criteria to arrive at some conclusion i may be wrong . the micro indicator like DGP or GDPIN does not support the logic . gross non-performing assets to gross advances by the banks is at good shape however they have increase the provisions for bad debt .This is due to the fact of increasing unemployment and decrease in production . The economy is slow but it is not going to be as situation of credit crises .
Since 1945 average uptrends or expansion is 58 months and average down trends or contraction is 11 Months .however since 1990 uptrends 95 months but still the and average down trends or contraction is 11 Months ( As per US DATA source : https://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html ).At the time of begging of expansion cycle buy cyclic stock such as commodity& technology stocks they are tend to outperform during the expansion .in time overheated market one can opt to buy health care consumer staple and utilities because of stable cash flow and dividends .Most economists considers that its natural part of economic activity but views are multiple some economist argue that if central bank RBI does not manipulate the interest rates and money supply the impact of the cycles would be less severe on the contrary there are others who believe that central banks indirectly control the cycle by intervening with monetary policy.

One can have close watch to the Credit rates and best way to do is checking the credit cycles. You may or may not enter at the bottom or exit at the top but you can enter with some gap.It is very interesting fact that Interest can be considered a cost for one entity and income for another. There is close relation between interest rate and inflation. In simple words inflation is condition when general level of prices is going up e.g More money will need to be paid for goods (like a loaf of bread) and services (like getting a haircut at the hairdresser’s).Thus every rupee will buy a smaller percentage of a product as compare to historical price. In general, as interest rates are reduced, more people are able to borrow more money. The result is that consumers have more money to spend, causing the economy to grow and inflation to increase

A credit cycle describes the phases of access to credit by borrowers. Credit cycles first go through periods in which funds are relatively easy to borrow; these periods are characterized by lower interest rates, lowered lending requirements, and an increase in the amount of available credit, which stimulates a general expansion of economic activity. These periods are followed by a contraction in the availability of funds.

During the contraction period of the credit cycle, interest rates climb and lending rules become stricter, meaning that less credit is available for business loans, home loans, and other personal loans. The contraction period continues until risks are reduced for the lending institutions, at which point the cycle troughs out and then begins again with renewed credit.

It is important to note that The average credit cycle tends to be longer than the business cycle because it takes time for a weakening of corporate fundamentals or property values to show up.

These notes i have collected from web a time ago but still have relevance .
Regards

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Sharing notes from Ramdev Agarwal
Raamdeo Agrawal said there is a liquidity crisis in the economy and today it has become the worst.

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