There was a stock split recently 
Thanks guys ! You are really patient people !
Dear Saheer,
Do not hesitate to ask even the simplest of questions. Everyone starts at some point of time and somebody from the forum will definitely reach out.
At the end of the day, it is the power of collaboration that is the most superior force at play at ValuePickr.
Another praise of ARBL by india’s rockstar fund manager.
Happy with the way amara raja has spanned out. Was advocating a buy since 90 bucks and very recently again at 195 and even 240. Btw, how does one start a new thread. Want to share feedback on the portfolio I had suggested elsewhere in this forum.
hi safir,
you can go to any section e.g. portfolio q&a and click on “start a new conversation” button on top right. curious for your portfolio feedback.
300 not out
The good thing is that it is still not over-valued even after such run-up, by looking at the moat, slowly gaining market share and quality of earning it is having.
It might have topped out for the short term today at around 311. I think there will be some consolidation before any next upmove.
Unexiding results from Exide…
Total Income up 17.4% to 1463.16 Cr from 1246.73 Cr.
EBIDTA up 1.3% to 164.68 Cr from 162.53 Cr.
Net Profit FLAT at 104.1 Cr v/s 104.3 Cr.
EBIDTA margin is 11.3% v/s 12.3% (SQ-12) and 13% (DQ-11)
NET Profit margin is 7.1% v/s 7.9% (SQ-12) and 8.4% (DQ-11)
Total Raw material costs as a %ge to Income is 67.2% v/s 65.8% (SQ-12) and 66.7% (DQ-11)
Employee costs to Income is 5.8% v/s 5.9% (SQ-12) and 6% (DQ-11)
Other expenses to Income is 15.7% v/s 16.1% (SQ-12) and 14.2% (DQ-11)
Tax Rate 29.1% v/s 30% (SQ-12) and 28.6% (DQ-11)
Though, 9M/Fy-13 v/s 9M/Fy-12 is much better…
Total Income up 23.8% to 4534.45 Cr from 3663.78 Cr (Fy/11-12: 5111.02 Cr)
EBIDTA up 23.3% to 585.65 Cr from 475.1 Cr (Fy/11-12: 687.87 Cr)
Net Profit up 18.1% to 376.32 Cr from 318.65 Cr (Fy/11-12: 461.17 Cr)
Reported 9-month EPS 4.43 v/s 3.75 (Fy/11-12: 5.42)
Recorded TTM diluted EPS: Rs. 6.09
On 17/01/2013, stock on NSE Closed at Rs. 139/- Down 2.2%.
(Note: Results declared after market hours)
Analysts on street expected sales to grow by 28% and profit by 35% - huge disappointment.
Remembering an old joke…
Sardarji took his car to a mechanic to replace battery
Mechanic: Saab, Exide laga dun kya?
Sardarji: Doosra side kaun tera baap lagayega?!
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exide might be an interesting bet if it corrects from these levels. it seems to be doing well in replacement market. problem it suffers is from OEMs esp in two wheelers space.
postive is a fantastic balance sheet and market leadership tag. if they can get over this temporary margin pressure issues, it can be a great buy if bought at the right price.
Hitesh ji look at the way market had rewarded bajaj auto for his out performance against hero same can happen here .
Hitesh Bai
is Exide a buy now @126?
Sunil
sunil,
exide today made a gap down opening with falling gap between 132-138. this is usually bearish for short term.
coming to retracement levels and trendline support levels, 123-124 levels seem to be crucial. So now we need to watch whether they offer any solid support or not.
Best way to play this one is to watch the stock for some time as it is not going to reverse its downtrend in a hurry. So let it settle down and then think about building up position here if u are convinced about the company.
The only issue here is the intent shown by Jaydev Galla to fight the next elections for Congress.
actuallyenters
Hi Saurabh,
I think this will not make any difference. Their family is already in politics. Smt. Galla Aruna Kumari, mother of Jaydev is a congress MLA from Chandragiri Constituency and also Minister in Andhra Pradesh Government.
After R srinivasan, Bhavin Shah is also bullish for ARBL.
Disc: ARBL is my 2nd largest holding, and in the process of becoming my top holding.
Let me play a contrarian here.
I think the valuation difference that Amara Raja had previously is not there anymore. Also, I think this business does not seem to have secular growth characteristics that a consumer business has. eg. Amara Raja had a bumpy FY 2011 and exide a bad 2012. And therefore this business should not enjoy a high multiple.
If I have to invest in this business, I will probably go with Exide as it is a leader.
Sunil
Disc: Invested in Amara Raja @ 190 and sold recently. Thinking of entering in Exide.
ARBL
Another praise of ARBL by india’s rockstar fund manager.
Hi Sunil,
Not long back, we were searching for non-textbook success pattern in indian equity market. Few of the patterns that we found are present in ARBL are
1). Present in duopoly market
2). Second position, and slowly taking market share from the leader
3). Solid RnD backing from foreign partner
4). Proven ability of execution, solid ROE ~25+, solid ROCE ~30+ with a DE ~0 (Hallmark of great stocks like Mayur, Ajanta, …)
5). A Psuedo consumer play (Batteries are being used in UPS, and so on)
6). Awesome reviews from mechanics, repair shop owner.
To me ARBL is an awesome stock to latch on for long term. In short term there might not be much positive price movement, which to me is a good thing as I can add more of it. Actually will be more happy if price fall a little bit.
Regards,
-Subash
After R srinivasan, Bhavin Shah is also bullish for ARBL
Disc: ARBL is my 2nd largest holding, and in the process of becoming my top holding.
Thanks Subash. I am aware of all the points you have mentioned. My worry actually is because ofthe valuation of Amara Raja. it had a great ride from 90 odd to 300. I am not sure whether it warrants a top holding in one’s portfolio at this point of time. Perhaps I am a born skeptic 
regards, Sunil
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Let me play a contrarian here.
I think the valuation difference that Amara Raja had previously is not there anymore. Also, I think this business does not seem to have secular growth characteristics that a consumer business has. eg. Amara Raja had a bumpy FY 2011 and exide a bad 2012. And therefore this business should not enjoy a high multiple.
If I have to invest in this business, I will probably go with Exide as it is a leader.
Sunil
Disc: Invested in Amara Raja @ 190 and sold recently. Thinking of entering in Exide.
Another praise of ARBL by india’s rockstar fund manager.
guys, may i request one thing. When we reply to another person’s post, please keep only a section of original post and then add your comments. Else it becomes little difficult for the other reader’s to go through the post (scrolling through big repetitive sections) . Hope that makes sense.
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